Download the Predictron form in Word format here.
Download the Predictron form in Excel format (preferred) here.
HORNSBY CHAPTER PREDICTATRON 2010: RULES AND INSTRUCTIONS
Welcome to the 2010 Rogers Hornsby Chapter Predictatron. Here are all the particulars.
Using the attached official ballot, predict the number of victories for each major league team for the 2010 regular season.
Note: For purposes of this contest, any tie-breaker games played in addition to the regularly-scheduled 162 games will NOT count. In addition, scheduled games lost to rain, inclement weather or other, unforeseen events will be considered acts of God and the scoring will not be adjusted to accommodate them.
Based on the number of victories you predicted, list your playoff teams for each league, choosing a victor in the first round and the consequent World Series opponents. Your selections as to which teams will make the playoffs cannot contradict the standings in your predicted season! (For instance, you should not predict a team to finish third in their division with 72 victories and have them in your playoff bracket.)
Remember to match up your first round playoff teams properly as well, based on their regular-season records.
Predict the World Series victor.
There will also be a separate postseason tournament, the rules for which will go out near the end of the regular season. That is completely separate from this and will not affect the outcome of this tournament.
Everyone begins with 1,000 points.
For each victory your prediction is off, you will lose one point. For instance, if you predict that Kansas City will have 71 victories and they finish with 90, you will lose 19 points. Guessing high or low is equally negative. If you predict a team will have 81 victories, you would lose 4 points if they win 85 games and you would lose 4 points if they win 77 games. At the end of the regular season, the total number of victories by which you missed will be subtracted from 1,000.
The Mortal Lock — In each league, you must pick one team that you designate as your Mortal Lock. This difference between this team’s actual number of victories and your prediction will count double against you. For example, if you pick the Dodgers to win 95 games and they only win 82, you will lose 26 points instead of 13. Important: You must designate as your mortal lock a team you are predicting to win either 90 or more games or 72 or fewer games.
You start gaining points back in the playoffs.
For every team you predicted to make the playoffs that actually does make the playoffs, you get 2 points. (Note: here you catch a break. If you predict a team to win their division and they are, instead, the wildcard team (or visa versa), you still get the 2 points. By not selecting them in the right order, however, you might lose the opportunity to make extra points in the later rounds, based on the manner in which they advance.)
Note: As it was in 2008, the 2 points for picking the Yankees and Red Sox to make it to the postseason will not be awarded.
For each team you select correctly to go on to the LCS, you get 4 points.
For each team you select correctly to go on to the World Series, you get 8 points.
For selecting the World Series victor, you get 16 points.
If, heading into the playoffs, a tie appears possible, participants still viable may be asked to further detail their predictions with numbers of games in which their chosen winners will achieve victory. The more people there are in the contest, the more likely this step will have to be taken, although it has never happened to this point. More details on this measure will follow should it become necessary at the outset of the playoffs.
If there are at least 16 entrants, the field will be broken into two divisions, chosen. The divisions will be chosen at random. *
Saturday, April 3 at midnight, Central Time.
Submit your ballots to: firstname.lastname@example.org
Standings among participants will be updated weekly or semi-weekly. Two things to remember about in-season updates: 1.) the scores will improve as the season goes along as the teams level out, and 2.) there will be a slight margin of error due to rounding that will not be there at the end of the season.
Submit either the attached ballot in Word or the attached ballot in Excel, entering the predicted number of victories after the team. Indicate division winners by typing ‘DIV’ after their total and wildcard winners by typing ‘WC’ after their total. ‘ (For instance: Boston 96WC) Indicate your Mortal Lock in the same fashion: San Francisco 92 DIV-LOCK. In Excel, add these extras in the next column, not in the same one in which the wins are located.
DO NOT rearrange the teams in order of finish!!! Please leave them in alphabetical order within each division — I beseech you!
Victories should total 2,430. Double check. I will try to catch errors while entering your ballot into the spread sheet. I will endeavor to call mistakes to your attention prior to the start of the regular season so that you will have time to fix them, but I cannot guarantee that I will catch every error. Mistakes are your responsibility, not mine. Being off by even three games could cost you in the contest. If you have any questions about filling out the ballot, feel free to call me at 512-986-5188 (home) or 512-922-1066 (cell).
Important: Those doing the ballot in Word may cut and paste it into an email. Those doing it in Excel need to re-title the file (For instance: Smith Ballot 2010) and attach it. My goal with the Excel entries is to do a simple cut and paste of your picks right onto the master ballot.