Category: Hornsby News

June 2025 Newsletter

by Don Dingee

A highlight of June baseball for me is always the split-screen action from the NCAA Men’s College Baseball regionals, with many games unfolding simultaneously in various locations across the country. The Hornsby chapter applied the split-screen concept for June, with meetings held over meals on consecutive weekends in San Antonio and Austin.

Our June 7 meet-and-greet lunch gathering at Stone Werks in The Vineyard (left image above), on the north edge of San Antonio, highlighted the analytics and historical storytelling aspects of SABR. Scott Lopez (with his wife, Britany, who was sporting an AAGPBL jersey), who holds level 1, 2, and 3 SABR Analytics Certification, swapped ideas with Cy Morong. Across the table, John Fredland, chair of the SABR Games Project, and Bob Windham shared some of their favorite stories. There was also a vigorous conversation between Steve Braccini and Mike Lassman on the finer points of two popular baseball board games, Strat-O-Matic and APBA.

Our official monthly chapter meeting on June 14 (right image above) drew a bit larger crowd to Rudy’s Country Store and BBQ on Loop 360 in Austin. For the first hour, over choices of breakfast burritos and brisket plates around the table, the baseball chatter among the 15 members present became fascinating. Conversations I overheard spanned topics including what’s right with the Astros, what’s still wrong with the Cubs despite their improvement, and the age-old debate among those growing up in or near New York City over being a Mets fan or a Yankees fan, but never both.

Best dressed for the day went to Cy Morong, who wore a White Sox-emblazoned Hawaiian shirt. We also welcomed long-time SABR member Dick Butler, who joined us from Boerne, sharing some of his White Sox stories. (Dick is also an APBA aficionado – maybe there’s a demo or even a tournament in our future.) Nicole Bryan brought some of her family’s memorabilia, including a Colt .45s game program and a signed ball, along with a Ty Cobb game-used baseball and a  tin container miniature of the Astrodome. This commemorative miniature used to contain confetti samples from the final game, lost during a hush-hush incident involving parental housecleaning.

Ryan Pollack prepared and emceed the quiz, which featured a theme of breakfast and food-related names in baseball. The winner was Dan Walsh (note his use of a pencil) with 14 out of 17 correct answers, and runner-ups Ira Siegel and Tom Thayer (playing with a surgically repaired wrist) with 13 each. Dan received a copy of “Rickey” by Howard Bryant for his showing. Tom Wancho is also recuperating from his Spring Training voyage mishap; thanks to Jim Baker for providing Tom a lift so he could join us.

You can test your knowledge on this quiz in its original form. 

Or, you can slide into the answer key, with correct answers in bold.

Contest updates and member perspectives

While I’m pinch-hitting for chapter commissioner Gilbert Martinez in this month’s newsletter, we heard from Gilbert in real time as we met in Austin with a multicultural baseball perspective from his hotel in Japan. We also have the latest updates on our chapter contests, Predictatron and Awardatron. I must note that my picks in Awardatron have eerily foreshadowed UCL tears in two consecutive seasons: Spencer Strider for NL CY last year and Jackson Jobe for AL RoY this year. For participants with similar issues involving injured players or underperforming picks, Ryan’s next update will provide instructions on making one adjustment to a pick with a half-off points penalty.

Remembering Mr. Pro Baseball, Shigeo Nagashima
by Gilbert D. Martinez
Chapter Commissioner

For as long as I can remember, my parents had a signature-stamped baseball of Yomiuri Giants great Shigeo Nagashima. I had long admired it, though I couldn’t read the name written in Japanese.

Arriving to Tokyo with my Texas State students for a study abroad program on June 3, I was saddened to learn that Nagashima, also known as Mr. Giants and Mr. Pro Baseball, had passed away that day. He and his teammate, Giants legend and home run king Sadaharu Oh, formed the ON (Oh-Nagashima) power attack, leading the Giants to nine straight Japan Series victories from 1965 to 1973.

He won five MVP awards with a .305 average, 444 home runs, .379 OBP and .540 slugging for his career.

After retiring as a player in 1974, he managed the Giants from 1975 to 1980 and again from 1993 to 2001, winning the Japan Series in 1994 and 2000.

His death made for front-page news in The Yomiuri Shimbun and The Sankei Shimbun, among others.

Do you have a cool baseball story that happened to you this season? Want to share it with your friends in the Hornsby Chapter and beyond? This may be perfect for you! Please reach out to Gilbert D. Martinez (gmartinez46@mac.com) with a brief description of your cool baseball story (write in first-person and limit your story to no more than 300 words, please) and accompanying photo if available.

 

Predictatron Update: Back In the Black
by Jim Baker
[Note: Jim shared this Predictatron update with the Hornsby Google Group on June 11, 2025.]

There is much better news on the scoring front this time around as only three players were in the red on the week and we averaged a median increase of 13 points each.

Sadly for our previous leader Team Hall, they were one of those three and lost the most ground to the tune of 11 points. This cost them the overall lead and the lead in the Brian Rogers Division, which has been regained by Mr. Gay. The overall lead, however, is now in the hands of rookie sensation Mr. Windham.

Our Player of the Week is Mr. Pollack and his 24 points. This raised him up from sixth to fourth in the Eric Robinson Division. Don’t look now, but Defending Champion Mr. Rogers is not too far off the track for a repeat. Here are the top five scores:

719 Bob Windham
717 Scott Gay
712 Brian Rogers
709 Team Hall
707 Ryan Pollack

Our scores would all be a lot higher had the Braves not gone winless. After a terrible start, they had battled back to decency only to completely go into the tank again. We are now down 23 points to them, the second-worst in the contest.

Through games of Sunday, June 8, or 40.2 percent of the 2025 season:

	PLAYER	Points	PB	Last	^/v	prev	move
1	Scott Gay	717		708	9	2	1
2	Brian Rogers	712	5	703	9	3	1
3	Team Hall	709	8	720	-11	1	-2
4	Ryan Pollack*	707	10	683	24	6	2
5	Kevin Barnes	695	22	698	-3	4	-1
6	Gilbert Martinez	693	24	676	17	9	3
7	John Rechtorovic	693	24	679	14	8	1
8	Jim Baker	692	25	688	4	5	-3
9	Tom Wancho	686	31	672	14	11	2
10	Don Dingee	685	32	683	2	6	-4
11	Syd Polk	677	50	674	3	10	-1
12	Mike McNulty	658	69	654	4	12	0
	*Player of the Week

 

	PLAYER	Points	PB	Last	^/v	prev	move
1	Bob Windham	719		700	19	1	0
2	Dan Walsh	704	15	689	15	3	1
3	Mike Dillon	701	18	686	15	4	1
4	Raeanne Martinez	697	22	676	21	6	2
5	Frank Rechtorovic	695	24	682	13	5	0
6	Jerry Miller	692	26	692	0	2	-4
7	Mike Harrell	688	31	670	18	7	0
8	Eric Robinson	686	33	665	21	9	1
8	Jan Larson	686	33	670	16	7	-1
10	Ira Siegel	666	53	665	1	9	-1
11	Gary McIntosh	656	63	636	20	13	2
12	Chris Crombar	652	67	642	10	12	0
13	Michael Bass	651	68	652	-1	11	-2

 

Awardatron Update #2
by Ryan Pollack
[Note: Ryan shared this second Awardatron update of the season with the email list on May 26, 2025.]

Ahoy mateys!!  We’re about 2 months through the baseball season. It’s time to check in on our Awardatron … awards.

AL MVP
Favorites: Judge, Witt Jr, Cal Raleigh

Raleigh is breaking out at age 28. He set a career high in WAR with 5.4 last year, and this year he’s up to 3.0 already. He’s cut his strikeouts a tad but has boosted his walk rate to a superlative 15%. That’s happening because of his massive power spike — .577 SLG, highest by far in his career if it sticks — and Raleigh’s willingness to take pitches and not chase. He’s barreling a crazy 22.5% of balls and has already socked 17 HR, halfway to his career high total of 34 last year and we’re not even in June yet. He’s doing all this while maintaining above-average defense behind the plate. This isn’t just luck, either – his .277 BABIP is normal, and his xWOBA of .394 is only slightly behind of his actual wOBA of .404.

NL MVP
Favorites: Ohtani, Tatis Jr., Betts

Ohtani had a .405 wOBA in March & April, and I thought — ah he’s kinda starting off a little slowly. He hit a mere 7 home runs with a .287 average, after all. Ho hum. In May he’s been more Ohtani-like, banging 11 HR so far and hitting .304 for a wOBA of .457. That’s more like it. And oh yeah — remember he’s still supposed to pitch sometime this year, too. 

AL Cy Young
Favorites: Skubal, Fried, Crochet

It pains me to write positive things about any Yankee, but Max Fried is having a very good year in the Bronx. Now, he isn’t as good as his 1.29 ERA might indicate. He is stranding an absurd amount of runners and benefiting from a crazy-low .246 BABIP. He will regress this year; mark my words. But he’s definitely keeping runs off the board and Cy Young voters love that. And he has ticked up his K rate while vastly lowering his walk rate, so his improvement isn’t all a mirage. It’s the same old Max honestly, just this time with some really great luck to start the year out.  

NL Cy Young
Favorites: Wheeler, Webb, Skenes

Webb, on the other hand, seemingly has found another level. He’s running a career-high 26.9% K rate alongside his usual low walk rate (5.8%). He’s keeping hitters off balance — just a 4.9% barrel rate. And he’s doing it while suffering from a .341 BABIP. But they’re mostly singles. He’s been good-to-great for most of his career, showing pieces of the puzzle before, but this year they’re coming together more.

AL ROY
Favorites: Jacob Wilson, Carlos Narvaez, Will Warren

Narvaez is a 26 year old rookie catcher for the Red Sox. The age should be a giveaway that big things aren’t expected of him. So while he is mashing the ball with a .372 wOBA, it should be noted his BABIP is a sky-high .372 and his xWOBA is .339. These numbers scream ‘regression’. That said, it doesn’t mean he’s terrible. He’s got a little thump in his bat, with 5 HR and 10 doubles so far, he’s walking at an above-average rate (9.5%), and his strikeouts aren’t crazy high either. So he has the potential to be quite good despite the regression, especially considering he’s a catcher. 

NL ROY
Favorites: Drake Baldwin, Chad Patrick, Ben Casparius

Casparius is a reliever and spot starter for the Dodgers. He’s got a great strikeout rate, but what catches my eye is his minuscule 4.5% walk rate. His Statcast page is lit up with high percentile rates: 89th percentile expected ERA, 89th percentile average exit velo, 97th percentile hard-hit rate — the list goes on. He’s got a lot of row to hoe if he wants to win ROY over a position player, and he may yet suffer the curse of being on the Dodgers’ staff (where they are apparently trying to push the limit of just how many pitchers they can break, and by how much) but he seemingly has the stuff to do it. 

AL Manager of the Year
Favorites: Hinch, Boone, Baldelli

Rocco Baldelli would be an interesting one here. The Twins were slightly favored to win the division to start the year, but it was a toss-up. They looked dead to start the year but then reeled off a 13-game winning streak to climb right back in the race. Hinch is the clear favorite in my opinion, but if the Tigers slip and the Twins get in, maybe Baldelli has a shot. 

NL Manager of the Year
Favorites: Counsell, Mendoza, Melvin

The Giants have scuffled somewhat but had a strong start to the season. They’ve got Logan Webb on the mound and Jung-Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Heliot Ramos on the diamond. If they can hang around, and maybe if Willy Adames can figure out how to hit in Oracle Park, maybe they can hang around and make the postseason. If they can do that, look for Bob Melvin to finish on the podium.  

 

SABR 53 is just over the horizon

The Hornsby Chapter will be well-represented in DFW for SABR 53, with an anticipated 13 members attending on various schedules. Of note are Eric Bynum’s presentation (scroll down to RP08 on the agenda) on a controversy surrounding the 1914 Waco Navigators, who had to share the Texas League championship that season, on Thursday, June 26, at 11:30 a.m., and Ira Siegel’s remarks in the Baseball Memories committee meeting at noon on Friday, June 27. Eric is also slated to compete in the 4-Person Trivia Contest alongside Jim Baker, Mike Lassman, and Cy Morong, and individual contests are also open to anyone. There are no formal plans for chapter meetings at the conference; however, we encourage attendees to support the speakers and contestants or grab a meal or beverage with a few folks, time permitting.

Next meeting: San Antonio Missions game outing

Looking ahead to July, we’ll be heading to Wolff Stadium for a game on Saturday, July 19, at 7:05 p.m., when the Missions host the Amarillo Sod Poodles. We’ve had the best luck identifying a somewhat open section where individuals can purchase their tickets directly from the Missions’ online platform. Family members and guests are welcome to join us there. We’ll have more details around July 1 via the Hornsby Google Group and SABR chapter lists.

 

May 2025 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

Thirteen chapter members and guests proved to be not so lucky for the hometown Round Rock Express, which hosted the Oklahoma City Comets on Star Wars Night at the chapter’s May meeting on Saturday.

After an early 2-1 lead, the Express did not strike back after the Comets plated six runs in the fifth inning, streaking their way to a 7-3 win. A key statistic that told the story of this game was team batting with runners in scoring position. The Comets excelled here, going six-for-eight while the Express went one-for-six, leaving 10 runners on base.

After the game, fans were treated to a Star Wars-themed drone show that depicted characters, scenes and audio clips from the movies and shows. The best one may have been the one with Grogu (aka Baby Yoda) levitating a baseball!

We also enjoyed a visit from Express General Manager Tim Jackson.

Linda Nichols had the best shoes at Dell Diamond — a new pair of Keds sneakers stitched like a baseball! Well done, Linda!

Before the game, chapter members and guests enjoyed a barbecue dinner at the Salt Lick.

SABR Webinar: Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe & the Hall

You may have seen the invitation to join a Zoom webinar at 6 p.m. (Central Time) Wednesday, May 21, about MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to remove Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and other members of the Chicago Black Sox and others from baseball’s permanently ineligible list. The discussion will also focus on sports gambling and the players’ newfound eligibility for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

The webinar will feature Don Van Natta Jr., Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter with ESPN, Keith O’Brien, author of “Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, and the Last Glory Days of Baseball,” and Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs senior writer and author of “Cooperstown Casebook: Who’s in the Baseball Hall of Fame, Who Should Be In, and Who Should Pack Their Plaques.” The webinar will be moderated by Jacob Pomrenke, who is on the SABR Black Sox Scandal Research Committee.

In 2024, O’Brien joined the Hornsby Chapter for a Zoom meeting on SABR Day to talk about “Charlie Hustle.” O’Brien, a New York Times bestselling author, award-winning journalist and SABR member, reminded us of Rose’s great baseball accomplishments and his poor choices and gambling addiction that derailed his legacy.

Attendance is limited to members of SABR. Click here to pre-register for this Zoom event.

SABR 53 DFW

Have you registered for SABR 53? It’s not too late! Here’s the link for more information about the annual conference from June 26 to 29 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area: https://sabr.org/convention/2025/registration

Among the 32 research presentations are one by a chapter member and another who shared details about his proposal at the chapter’s SABR Day meeting earlier this year.

In a research presentation, Hornsby Chapter member Eric Bynum will discuss the Waco Navigators, which won three consecutive Class B Texas League titles from 1914 to 1916, including a controversial decision related to the shared title with the Houston Buffaloes in 1914. His presentation will be at 11:30 a.m. Thursday, June 26.

Also, Brenden Gilbreath, a law student at Texas Tech School of Law, will describe his proposal to MLB and the MLB Players Association to award annual benefits to the families of Negro League veterans in a presentation called “Heroes Get Remembered, but Legends Never Die: Properly Recognizing the Contributions of Negro League Veterans.” His presentation will be at 10 a.m. Thursday, June 26. Gilbreath shared an early draft of his proposal at the Hornsby Chapter’s SABR Day meeting on Feb. 1.

Here’s a link to all presentations: https://sabr.org/convention/sabr53-presentations

Cool baseball stories: A minor league ball wrapped in memories
By Don Dingee

Before I started elementary school, my grandmother bought the former one-room schoolhouse next door to my parents’ house in Churchtown, NY. Over several summers, “Eddie the carpenter” added a kitchen, bathroom, pumphouse, furnace room, and a rear porch, and finished out two bedrooms and the front porch. He often had a radio with the Mets on while working, and mentioned a few times that he pitched in the Dodgers’ system.

I would see Eddie Yasinski occasionally in Hudson, where he also worked as a mail carrier and umpire. He was right over my shoulder behind the plate for the last game I played in high school. When I joined SABR and started thinking about a writing project, Eddie came to mind, and what I found was a fascinating story. His biography is in the Minor Leagues Research Committee Spring 2025 Newsletter.

His daughter, Susan, better known as guitarist Susan SurfTone, was of immense help, providing photos and anecdotes. When I shared the published version with her, she said, “Send me your address, I have something for you.” Soon, a baseball in a plastic case arrived by mail, signed by Eddie, manager and former major leaguer Al Brancato, future major leaguers Art Cecarelli and Gabe Gabler, former major leaguers Clyde McNeil and Rudy Rufer, and most of the players on the 1953 Elmira Pioneers, the Dodgers’ A affiliate.

Susan related that after Eddie passed away in 2017, she found five similarly signed baseballs from Eddie’s various minor league stops, with two labeled “Eastern League,” which made me feel a bit better that she wasn’t parting with an heirloom. It’s a precious gift that has joined my small baseball memorabilia collection.

Do you have a cool baseball story that happened to you this season? Want to share it with your friends in the Hornsby Chapter and beyond? This may be perfect for you! Please reach out to Gilbert D. Martinez (gmartinez46@mac.com) with a brief description of your cool baseball story (write in first-person and limit your story to no more than 300 words, please) and accompanying photo if available.

Predictatron Update: Gay leads the way
[Note: Jim Baker shared this Predictatron update with the email list on May 12.]
By Jim Baker

We have a new leader heading into the quarter turn of the season in the person of Mr. Gay. Previously satisfied to lead just the Brian Rogers Division, he has now unseated previous overall leader Mr. Windham as well. All is not lost for the rookie upstart, however, as he has maintained his lead in the Eric Robinson Division in spite of coughing up the big lead.

It was a very positive week for most players as we averaged a 33-point gain. This helped push the number of players at or past the 700-point mark to eight. The biggest week was turned in by Mr. Harrell, who rang up 57 points, enabling him to climb from ninth to fifth in the Robinson Division. This makes him our Player of the Week. You will probably remember that Mr. Harrell won this award no less than seven times in 2024—a truly staggering number that had never before been achieved. Is the first of seven for 2025? Stay tuned.

In the Rogers Division, Mr. Rechtorovic the Younger also had a big showing, missing the Player of the Week award by just one point. This allowed him to progress from tenth place all the way up to fifth. Team Hall also broke the 50-point barrier on the week, jumping from seventh to third in the process.

With one-fourth of the season gone, here’s a look at the least-costly and most-costly picks so far. Note that there are 19 individual-team perfect scores.

	Least Costly		Most Costly
	Player/score	loss	Player/score	loss
Baltimore	Wancho 79	-17	Robinson, Seigel, 90L	-55
Boston	Polk, Larson, Windham 85	0	Miller 94	-9
NY Yankees	Miller 92	-1	Larson, Dingee 84	-9
Tampa Bay	McIntosh 73	0	Bass 58	-15
Toronto	R. Martinez, Gay 81	0	Siegel 71	-10
Chi. White Sox	Bass 47L	-3	R Martinez, Walsh 63L	-31
Cleveland	G Martinez 95	-2	McNulty 76	-17
Detroit	Dingee, Siegel 91	-12	Rogers 78	-25
Kansas City	Bass 93	0	Dillon, Baker 80	-13
Minnesota	6 tied with 83*	0	Dingee 74	-9
Houston	Dingee, Larson, McIntosh 83	0	G Martinez 93L	-20
LA Angels	Siegel 66	0	Polk 51	-15
Athletics	Dingee 84	-1	Polk 67L	-32
Seattle	Dingee & Polk 89, Siegel 93	-2	Windham 83	-8
Texas	Bass 78	-1	Crombar 92L	-26
Atlanta	G Martinez 86	-9	J Rechtorovic 96L	-38
Miami	F Rechtorovic 62	0	Barnes 69L	-13
NY Mets	Polk 97	-6	Harrell 84	-19
Philadelphia	G Martinez, Polk 96	-1	Robinson 86	-11
Washington	J Rechtorovic 67	0	Harrell 57L	-20
Chicago Cubs	Dillon 90L	-2	Polk 78	-13
Cincinnati	Baker, Walsh 77	0	McNulty, Harrell, Wancho 86	-9
Milwaukee	Dillon 79	0	Siegel 94L	-30
Pittsburgh	G Martinez 70	-15	Dingee 82	-27
St. Louis	Barnes 84	-3	Bass 58	-29
Arizona	J Rechtorovic 83	0	Polk 96	-13
Colorado	J Rechtorovic 55	-27	McIntosh, 62L	-67
Los Angeles	Larson, F Rechtorovic 105L	-3	Pollack, R Martinez 97L	-17
San Diego	Barnes 92	-12	Pollack, Rogers, Larson 82	-22
San Francisco	Bass 83	-12	Crombar 76	-19
	*Barnes, Polk, Dillon, Larson, F Rechtorovic, Siegel

As we pause to comprehend the folly that is the 2025 Colorado Rockies so far, consider that the best score for them in our group is costing its owner 27 points! The team with the lowest most-damaging score is Seattle at -8. If you see an ‘L’ next to a player’s pick in this chart, it means it’s their Lock. A Lock in the Least-Damaging column is a truly impressive feat, given the double jeopardy the Lock brings with it. There are only three such picks on the board so far.

It’s interesting to see the same players on both sides of the ledger, proving once again that predicting the outcome of baseball seasons is nowhere near an exact science. You probably already knew that, though.

Through games of Sunday, May 11, or 25.0 percent of the 2025 season:

	PLAYER	Points	PB	Last	^/v	prev	move
1	Scott Gay	726		701	25	1	0
2	Don Dingee	710	16	699	11	2	0
3	Team Hall	709	17	657	52	7	4
4	Jim Baker	703	23	661	42	6	2
5	John Rechtorovic	699	27	643	56	10	5
6	Mike McNulty	695	31	674	21	4	-2
7	Kevin Barnes	694	32	652	42	8	1
8	Tom Wancho	693	33	682	11	3	-5
9	Brian Rogers	681	45	648	33	9	0
10	Gilbert Martinez	678	48	667	11	5	-5
11	Ryan Pollack	663	63	619	44	12	1
12	Syd Polk	651	75	625	26	11	-1

	PLAYER	Points	PB	Last	^/v	prev	move
1	Bob Windham	723		704	19	1	0
2	Frank Rechtorovic	715	8	668	47	4	2
3	Mike Dillon	707	16	679	28	3	0
4	Jerry Miller	700	23	693	7	2	-2
5	Mike Harrell*	693	30	636	57	9	4
6	Jan Larson	687	36	644	43	6	0
7	Gary McIntosh	685	38	657	28	5	-2
8	Ira Siegel	681	42	641	40	7	-1
9	Michael Bass	670	53	631	39	10	1
9	Dan Walsh	670	53	628	42	12	3
11	Raeanne Martinez	667	56	621	46	13	2
12	Eric Robinson	663	60	630	33	11	-1
13	Chris Crombar	652	71	637	15	8	-5
	*Player of the Week

Awardatron Update
[Note: Ryan Pollack shared the following on the group email list on April 21, nearly a month into the season.]
By Ryan Pollack

Greetings & salutations, all! Your first Awardatron update is coming a tad early, as I will be busy next week. The season’s young, but let’s check in on the awards favorites so far.

AL MVP
Frontrunners: Judge, Witt Jr., Henderson

Henderson has started slowly, with a batting line of just .228/..267/.439 (103 wRC+ — meaning his park-adjusted offense is 3% better than league average). And his plate discipline is all messed up, with just a 5% walk rate against a sky-high 33% K rate.

As Orioles fans, we’re leaning on two positive facts to start the year. One, he’s hitting the ball extremely hard (64.9% Hard-hit rate per Statcast). Two, he missed a month of spring training with an intercostal strain and so may just be one of those guys who needs the reps. The projection systems remain confident in him, as do us Baltimore fans (dear lord knows we need something to hope for after this miserable start to the year).

NL MVP
Frontrunners: Tatis Jr., Ohtani, Betts

Fernando Tatis Jr. is fulfilling the promise he made when the Padres signed him to that mammoth extension several years ago. He has been consistently excellent since then, but teammates like Machado and Soto have overshadowed him, and his scandal-fueled couple of years didn’t help. Now, however, he’s off to a stunning .358/.436/.631 start (209 wRC+, meaning his park-adjusted offense is 109% better than league average) with 8 HR and 7 SB. Oh and he’s playing above-average defense in the outfield. 

The most impressive thing is that he’s struck out a minuscule 12.8% of the time — significantly better than the league-average strikeout rate of 22.5%. He’s also walking the same amount, and to walk as much as you strike out is pretty much Juan Soto / Kyle Tucker territory. It seems there is a new National League right fielder on this list!

His career high in WAR is 6.8, set in 2021; he already has 1.9 this year. Sky’s the limit.

AL Cy Young
Frontrunners: Crochet, Skubal, Ragans

Crochet has looked every bit like the ace Boston thought they were getting when they not only traded for him, but signed him to a crazy extension. His 1.13 ERA is being held up by an unsustainably low home run rate and an unsustainably high baserunner strand rate, but his expected stats and peripherals point to an ERA in the high 2’s or low 3’s, not some ghastly number. Although Crochet is emphasizing his sinker more than 2024 and has added break to his cutter, his calling card remains his fastball. Batters are slugging .175 against it despite seeing it almost half the time. 

NL Cy Young
Frontrunners: Skenes, Wheeler, Webb

Skenes looks even better to start his first full season. Although his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is also down (from 6.2% to 3.4%, and so is his hard-hit rate (from 36.3% to 32.5%). Right now he’s basically Greg Maddux (career 4.9% walk rate) except, you know, he throws 98 MPH and has a 93 MPH splitter.   

AL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunners: Kristian Campbell, Jacob Wilson, Jack Leiter

Pretty much no one was saying anything about Jacob Wilson (shortstop for the Athletics) to start the year. At least, not that I heard of. Well — that’s changed now. He sports a park-adjusted offensive line that’s 52% better than major league average, and although I’m honestly not sure how park adjustments in Sacramento are being done this year, that’s still very good. Breaking it down, he has a super weird batting line of .354/.354/.500 with 2 HR and 1 SB. Fascinatingly, he has zero walks and has struck out only 3.4% of the time. He’s not hitting the ball hard (2.5% Barrel rate), so it seems he’s shaping up to be another Luis Arraez type, who sprays singles all around the field because he’s adept at squaring up the baseball. 

But crucially, unlike Arraez, Wilson is a good defender at a premium position. According to Statcast, he’s in the 82nd percentile for range and 77th at arm strength. Because of this, if he can maintain even a league-average batting line, he can be really valuable.

NL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunners: Dylan Crews, Thomas Saggese, Zac Veen

The NL ROY crowd is pretty thin. But so far, Thomas Saggese has fired up the Cardinals with a .400/.389/.600 batting line. That .422 wOBA is obviously not sustainable but even his .342 xWOBA would be very good for a rookie. And combined with above-average defense up the middle (he’s a second baseman / shortstop), you have the makings of a potential breakout in St. Louis. 

AL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: Hinch (Tigers), Bochy (Rangers), Schneider (Blue Jays)

The Tigers are 13-9 with a +24 run differential to start the year, 7th best in MLB. Given how they ended last year, I think many expected them to do better this year, but the fact they’re out in front counts as a mild surprise. Skubal hasn’t really looked like Skubal yet, but he’s still excellent, and Spencer Torkelson is fulfilling his prospect potential with a park-adjusted batting line 93% better than league-average. Their playoff odds have increased 27 points, most in the big leagues so far, from 37% to 64%. Those are the kinds of positive surprises that get managers awards. 

NL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: Counsell (Cubs), Melvin (Giants), Shildt (Padres)

The Cubs were something of a disappointment last year. Well — not so much this year. Their playoff odds have increased 18 points, from a right-on-the-bubble 56% to a close-to-a-sure-thing 74%. Kyle Tucker has been astounding to start the year with a park-adjusted batting line 76% better than league average — pretty much right where he landed last year. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been not-terrible at the plate, which when combined with his superlative defense in CF and baserunning, has given him 1.2 WAR already. Although Justin Steele is out for the year, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon have helped keep the rotation afloat. Boyd and Imanaga are getting a little lucky, but the games they’ve helped win are in the books, so it doesn’t matter as much.  

Next meeting
In June, we’ll have a breakfast/brunch meeting at 9:30 a.m. Saturday, June 14, at Rudy’s Bar-B-Cue on Capital of Texas Highway in Southwest Austin. Look for a call for RSVPs early next month.

In July, we’re headed back to watch the San Antonio Missions (Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres) host the Amarillo Sod Poodles (Double-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks) at 7 p.m. Saturday, July 19. More details to come in early July.

March 2025 Newsletter
By Gilbert D. Martinez

On the eve of the new season, 15 chapter members and guests gathered in Round Rock on Sunday to reflect on the off season, to consider our favorite teams’ moves (or inaction) and to look ahead to a new round of prognostication.

While two annual contests have been announced (more details below!), we had one wrap up in February when the last of the big-name free agents, namely Alex Bregman, signed with the Boston Red Sox.

On Sunday, Cy Morong brought a seemingly simple but challenging quiz in which we had to name each MLB team’s home run leader in the 21st century. And he gave us three names from which to make our picks. Congratulations to Ryan Pollack for besting everyone with a score of 25. With 22 points, Monte Cely and Don Dingee tied for second place, with Monte securing the runner-up spot by virtue of the tiebreaker.

For their efforts, Cy presented Ryan and Monte with baseball books to treasure (pictured above, Ryan on the right).

Take a swing at Cy Morong’s Home Run Quiz by clicking here. The questions are on the first page; answers follow on the second page.

Inaugural Contractatron Contest Results

By Ryan Pollack
(Note: Ryan shared this via email on Feb. 14 with the Hornsby Chapter email group shortly after Bregman signed with the Red Sox last month.)

Welp — it’s done. The 2024-2025 Contractatron Contest is complete! All 10 free agents have signed their deals, or so I’m told. And it means baseball is just around the corner.

We will get to the final standings in a minute, but first: Alex Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox a couple of days ago. This is slightly below the reported median guess of $150 million. Let’s see where things shook out.

Mike Cohen had the best score for Bregman. It would’ve been impossible to have a better one, as Mike guessed the $120 million deal exactly. That’s a 0% miss, in case you need reminding. On the other side of the coin, Jerry Miller was off by the most. He predicted a cool $320 million, which tabulates out to a 166.7% miss. Oof! Bregman surely would’ve preferred Jerry’s guessed salary to Mike’s, but alas, it is not to be. However, since Bregman’s deal has a player opt-out after 2025, perhaps he can land that monster deal next offseason. 

As you could guess by the median $150 million prediction, we weren’t that far off as a group from what Bregman actually got. As a group we missed by 25%, which is just about the middle of the pack:

For the entire contest, the median miss regardless of player was 33.5%. Not bad for our first year of guessing!

Final Standings

With a final score of 34.9, lowest average miss of the group — JIM BAKER is your 2024-2025 Contractatron winner!!!

Here are the full standings:

Jim’s best score was Teoscar Hernandez, for whom he was 0% off. He was also 1.7% off Bregman’s deal and 8.1% off Santander’s. 

His worst was Pete Alonso, for whom he was 103.7% off — but remember this miss was actually good, as it was pretty far below the median miss. 

Congratulations to Mike Cohen for a pretty close second-place finish as well. 

That concludes our contest… thank you and I’m already looking forward to next year’s! Tell your friends!!

Prediction contests galore!

The Hornsby Chapter has not one but two predication contests for your prognostication pleasure!

Think you know how this season will unfold – or how you hope it unfolds? The choice is yours in Jim Baker’s Predictatron. Though the MLB season kicks off with the Japan Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs this week in Tokyo, the rest of the teams open next week. For winning their divisions last year, Brian Rogers, the reigning champ, and Eric Robinson will have divisions named in their honor. Early in the new season, participants will be randomly assigned to one division or the other.

Details about the contest are in the documents below. Deadline to join is 11:59 p.m. Friday, March 28. Use the links below for rules, instructions and the ballot.

 2025 Hornsby Predictatron Rules and Instructions

 2025 Hornsby Predictatron Ballot

But that’s not all! Ryan Pollack’s Awardatron Contest is also open for your best shot to name the season’s award-winners for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. Ballots are due by 9 a.m. (Central Time) Thursday, March 27. Click here for the instructions and to submit your ballot.

Next meeting and beyond

Our next chapter meeting will be at the home of Bailey, Nicole and Brian Hall at noon Sunday, April 13. More details and a call for RVSPs will go out in early April.

We’re planning an outing to see the Round Rock Express (Triple-A affiliate of the Texas Rangers) host the Oklahoma City Comets (Triple-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers), at 7:15 p.m. Saturday, May 17, which is also Star Wars Night! We’ll have more details soon.

In June, we’ll have a breakfast/brunch meeting at 9:30 a.m. Saturday, June 14, at Rudy’s Bar-B-Cue on Capital of Texas Highway in Southwest Austin.

In July, we’re headed back to San Antonio to watch the Missions (Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres) host the Amarillo Sod Poodles (Double-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks).

Mark your calendar. Hope you can join us!

February 2025 Newsletter Supplemental
By Gilbert D. Martinez

Seven chapter members gathered on Sunday to watch the Texas Longhorns defeat the Dartmouth Big Green 4-1 on what turned out to be a mild, sunny day at UFCU Disch-Falk Field in Austin.

We watched a tight ball game in which both teams struggled to sustain long innings. Both teams could only muster no more than run in an inning. The difference was that the Longhorns did so in four separate innings and held the Big Green scoreless after they took an early 1-0 in the first inning. On Sunday, the Longhorns completed a three-game sweep of Dartmouth.

Longhorns freshman reliever Dylan Volantis threw 4.2 innings in relief, allowing just one hit and striking out four. Second baseman Ethan Mendoza provided half the offense, going 3-for-4 with a home run and two RBI.

More details about the game can be found on the Longhorns baseball website: https://texaslonghorns.com/news/2025/2/23/no-16-baseball-secures-sweep-of-dartmouth.aspx

Many thanks to Bailey Hall for pitching the idea to catch a college ball game this month. At the game, we talked about making this an annual event.

Caribbean Series 2025 in Mexicali: The 67^th edition of Serie del Caribe builds upon recent successes
By Monte Cely

The Caribbean Series was conceived at baseball meetings in 1948, and the first edition of the international baseball tournament was held in 1949 at the Gran Estadio de Cerro in Havana.  After record-setting attendance and interest in Miami in 2024, expectations were high for the 2025 episode.  Mexicali did not disappoint, with sellouts, solid play and great weather. 

Following are some highlights:

ROUND ROBIN PHASE

The 2025 Series included five teams, the four league champs and an invited team from Japan (a first for an Asian squad):

Charros de Jalisco – Mexico

Indios de Mayaguez – Puerto Rico

Leones de Escogido – Dominican

Cardenales de Lara – Venezuela

Japan – Japan Breeze

The format of competition is a single round robin, with the top four teams advancing to the semifinals.  As of the completion of round robin play the standings stood at:

Mexico 4-0

Dominicana 2-2

Venezuela 2-2

Puerto Rico 2-2

Japan 0-4

Highlights and observations from Round Robin play:

The Japan team has been outgunned but are a plucky young team and became fan favorites here with their sportsmanship.  At the end of each game, they line up on the base line and bow to the fans and then to the opposing team.

The Mexico pitching and defense have carried them to the top spot so far. They have allowed the opposition only four runs in the four games during the Round Robin Phase.

Attendance has been strong, around 13,000 for the afternoon games and sellouts (17,000+) in the evening when Mexico plays.  

Albert Pujols is managing the Dominican team.

Venezuelan pitcher Jesus Vargas threw a no-hitter against Japan, only the third one in Caribbean Series history.

 

The Stadium (el Nido de los Aguilas – The Eagles Nest) was recently remodeled and is in great shape – comfortable with good sight lines.  Dimensions are 330’ to the foul poles and 400’ to CF.

SEMIFINALS

The DR defeated Venezuela 5-4 in 11 innings to punch their ticket to the finals.  The game was tied 3-3 after nine and both teams drove in their bonus runner (aka the Manfred Man) in the 10th.  Likewise for the Dominicans in the top of the eleventh.  In the bottom of the 11th the Venezuelans had runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs but failed to score either of them thus losing the game.

Mexico scored three runs in the bottom of the first and that was all they needed as again the solid pitching and defense for Mexico shut down the Puerto Rico offense.  Final score: 3-1.   Mexico has won all five games so far and allowed opponents only five runs total.

Former major league speedster Billy Hamilton plays CF for Mexico.  He has excited the fans with five stolen bases so far.

FINALS

Escogido (Santo Domingo, DR) defeated Charros de Jalisco (Mexico) 1-0 on Friday night to win the 2025 Caribbean Series.  The Mexican squad continued their outstanding defense and pitching but could only muster one hit.  There were no RBIs recorded as the one Dominican run scored on a double play.

ALL TOURNAMENT TEAM

Esmil Rogers was the tournament MVP, winning two games for the Dominican team including the final game.  The all-stars for the tournament were:

C: Francisco Mejía República Dominicana
1B: Yamaico Navarro República Dominicana
2B: Michael Wielansky México
3B: Kelvin Gutiérrez República Dominicana
SS: Jack Mayfield México
CF: Billy Hamilton México
LF: Rudy Martin Jr. México
RF: Alexi Amarista Venezuela
DH: Danry Vázquez Venezuela
Starting Pitcher: Jesús Vargas Venezuela
Reliever: Trevor Clifton México
Manager: Benjamín Gil México

CLOSING OBSERVATIONS

The Caribbean Series is always a party at the ballpark, and this year was no exception.  The author is second from right behind my good friend Juan Antonio from Mexico.  The other two “fanaticos” were our “vecinos” (neighbors) at all the games.

The upcoming schedule for the Caribbean Series will be:

2026 – Caracas, Venezuela

2027 – Hermosillo, Mexico

2028 – Miami, U.S.A.

Next meeting

Next month’s meeting will be at 1 p.m. Sunday, March 16, at Hurricane Grill and Wings (2701 Parker Dr., Round Rock). With spring training winding down then, we’ll be gearing up for the 2025 season! Hope you can join us. Watch for a call for RSVPs early next month.