Prediction Results – Society for American Baseball Research, Rogers Hornsby Chapter

2010 Cy Young Award Prognosticator Results

Jim Baker is the winning prognosticator for the 2010 Cy Young Award poll. Craig Lukshin finished a close second.

The complete final results of our chapter’s poll are here (in Excel format)

Post-Season Prediction results – 2010

The only player to correctly name the winner in all four LDS, Craig was also only one of three players to glean any points from the rounds beyond the LDS. Only he, Brian and Norman had the foresight to pick the Rangers to make it to the World Series and only Brian did it in the correct amount of games: six. For his efforts, Brian is the 2010 runner-up. Third place goes to Tom, who gets the nod over Michael and Steve on the basis of having been the closest on the total number of games played in the postseason. Even though we don’t know the duration of the World Series yet, we do know the game total won’t exceed 34.)

Hornsby Postseason 2010!			Total	PHI-CIN			ATL-SFG			TBR-TEX			NYY-MIN			NLCS			ALCS			World Series			# games
Hornsby Postseason 2010!			Total	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	predicted
1	Craig	Lukshin	27	PHI	3	5	SFG	4	5	TEX	4	4	NYY	5	4	PHI	6	0	TEX	7	9	PHI	6	0	35
2	Brian	Rogers	17	PHI	4	4	ATL	4	-5	TEX	4	4	NYY	5	4	PHI	5	0	TEX	6	10	PHI	5	0	33
3	Tom	Wancho	9	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TEX	5	5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	6	0	MIN	6	0	PHI	6	0	35
4	Michael	Bass	9	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	NYY	4	4	PHI	6	0	NYY	7	0	PHI	7	0	37
5	Steve	Fall	9	PHI	5	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	NYY	5	4	PHI	6	0	TBR	7	0	TBR	7	0	39
6	Wells	Oliver	8	PHI	4	4	SFG	3	4	TBR	5	-4	NYY	4	4	PHI	6	0	TBR	6	0	PHI	6	0	34
7	Norman	Macht	8	PHI	5	4	ATL	5	-5	TEX	5	5	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TEX	7	9	PHI	6	0	39
8	Monte	Cely	0	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TBR	7	0	TBR	7	0	38
8	Gary	McIntosh	0	CIN	5	-5	SFG	4	5	TEX	5	5	MIN	5	-5	CIN	6	0	MIN	6	0	CIN	7	0	38
10	Jim	Baker	-1	PHI	3	5	SFG	5	4	TBR	4	-5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	5	0	TBR	6	0	TBR	7	0	34
11	Gilbert	Martinez	-1	PHI	5	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	4	-5	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TBR	6	0	TBR	7	0	37
12	Jan	Larson	-2	PHI	4	4	SFG	5	4	TBR	4	-5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	5	0	TBR	6	0	PHI	6	0	34
13	Bill	Gilbert	-2	PHI	4	4	ATL	5	-5	TBR	4	-5	NYY	4	4	ATL	6	0	TBR	6	0	ATL	6	0	35

Final Predictatron Results – 2010

The 2010 Hornsby Chapter Predictatron has come to an end and with that we find Gilbert is the champion. Gilbert’s rise from 9^th place (out of 11) in 2009 is most dramatic. He improved by 62 points, which should give hope for 2011 to all who did not fare so well this year.

For the second year in a row, Tom finished in second place; this time, by the smallest possible margin. While Gilbert’s winning score was six points less than Michael’s championship tally from 2009, the group averaged 12 more points than it did last year: up from 755 to 767. The biggest improvement was made by Jim, who only scored 718 last year, while the biggest drop was recorded by Jan, who fell 44 points. Michael’s loss of 40 points from 2009 caused a 10^th-place finish in 2010 on the heels of last year’s championship.

Hornsby Predictatron 2010 Final
	PLAYER	Final Score	Reg Season
1	Gilbert Martinez	794	778
2	Tom Wancho	793	775
3	Dan Walsh	790	778
4	Jim Baker	789	775
5	Craig Lukshin	783	775
6	Mike Dillon	777	763
7	Wells Oliver	773	761
8	Monte Cely	764	752
9	Bill Gilbert	763	755
10	Michael Bass	760	746
11	Paul Sporer	733	725
12	Jan Larson	726	712
13	Norman Macht	723	717

2009 Cy Young Award Winners

Download the results here in Microsoft Excel format: 2009 Cy Young Predictions (final).

Post-Season Prediction results – 2009

Dan Walsh has won the Hornsby Postseason Prediction contest. Although Dan had the Phillies winning the World Series, his strong showing in the first round put him in a position to best challenger Jan Larson, who correctly picked a six-game Yankee win in the Series. Michael Bass also correctly picked a Yankee win, although he opted for seven games, garnering him nine points instead of 10. Tom Wancho rounded out the top three.

Postseason 2009!			Total	PHI-COL			STL-LAD			BOS-LAA			NYY-MIN			NLCS			ALCS			World Series
Postseason 2009!			Total	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts
1	Dan	Walsh	24	PHI	3	4	LAD	5	4	LAA	4	4	NYY	4	4	PHI	7	8	LAA	6	0	PHI	7	0
2	Jan	Larson	20	PHI	4	5	STL	5	-5	BOS	5	-5	NYY	3	5	STL	6	0	NYY	6	10	NYY	6	10
3	Tom	Wancho	18	PHI	4	5	STL	4	-5	LAA	5	4	NYY	5	4	STL	6	0	NYY	6	10	STL	6	0
4	Michael	Bass	17	COL	5	-5	STL	5	-5	LAA	5	4	NYY	4	4	STL	7	0	NYY	6	10	NYY	7	9
4	Bill	Gilbert	17	COL	5	-5	LAD	5	4	LAA	5	4	NYY	4	4	LAD	5	0	NYY	6	10	LAD	7	0
6	Monte	Cely	9	PHI	4	5	STL	4	-5	LAA	4	4	NYY	3	5	STL	6	0	LAA	6	0	STL	6	0
7	Gilbert	Martinez	8	COL	5	-5	STL	4	-5	LAA	5	4	NYY	3	5	STL	6	0	NYY	5	9	STL	6	0
7	Jim	Baker	8	PHI	4	5	LAD	5	4	BOS	5	-5	NYY	4	4	LAD	5	0	BOS	6	0	LAD	7	0
9	Craig	Lukshin	-2	PHI	5	4	STL	4	-5	BOS	5	-5	NYY	4	4	STL	6	0	BOS	7	0	BOS	6	0
10	Joe	LeBritton	-11	COL	4	-5	STL	3	-5	BOS	4	-5	NYY	4	4	COL	7	0	BOS	6	0	BOS	5	0

Final Predictatron Results – 2009

Mike Dillon, Jan Larson and Cy Morong are the three who had the Yankees going all the way. Monte Cely and Dan Walsh picked the Phillies to make it to the World Series, but only Dan had them winning it.

PLAYER	Score
Mike Bass	800
Tom Wancho	772
Jan Larson	770
Cy Morong	770
Mike Dillon	769
Dan Walsh	758
Monte Cely	741
Bill Gilbert	733
Gilbert Martinez	731
Jim Baker	718
Paul Sporer	699

Final Regular Season Predictatron Standings – 2009

Final regular season standings.

	HORNSBY PREDICTATRON
	PLAYER	Score	Last	plus/minus	last time	move
1	Mike Bass	774	762	12	1	0
2	Tom Wancho	752	739	13	2	0
3	Jan Larson	730	724	6	3	0
3	Dan Walsh	730	722	8	4	1
5	Mike Dillon	727	721	6	5	0
6	Cy Morong	722	717	5	6	0
7	Gilbert Martinez	721	716	5	7	0
8	Bill Gilbert	715	711	4	8	0
9	Monte Cely	713	699	14	10	1
10	Jim Baker	706	701	5	9	-1
11	Paul Sporer	689	689	0	11	0

Best Not in the Hall of Fame

Here are the results of the recent poll where SABR/Hornsby Chapter members were asked to vote on the best players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The guidelines were that the player must be eligible for Veteran’s Committee consideration and have played in a major league (NL,AL, FL) in the modern era.

Of the eight ballots submitted, the following registered votes:

Five votes each: Ron Santo (3B), Dick Allen (OF, 1B, DH), Bobby Grich (2B)

Four votes: Jim Kaat (P)

Three votes each: Bill Dahlen (SS), Bert Blyleven (P) (note, Blyleven still has BBWAA eligibility), Minnie Minoso (OF)

Received two votes each:

1B – Gil Hodges; P – Smokey Joe Wood, Luis Tiant, Tommy John; OF – Tony Oliva, "Indian" Bob Johnson, Sherry Magee, Jimmy Wynn

Received one vote each:

C – Ted Simmons, Bob O’Farrell, Bill Freehan, Joe Torre, Gene Tenance; 1B – Stuffy McInnis, Don Mattingly, Norm Cash; SS – Dick Bartell, Davey Concepcion, Vern Stephens; 3B – Darrell Evans; OF – Bibb Falk, Vada Pinson, Reggie Smith, Dale Murphy; SP – Lefty O-Doul, Sam Leever, Lon Warneke, Mike Garcia, Paul Derringer, Jerry Koosman; RP – Dan Quisenberry

2008 Cy Young Award Winners

Download the results here in Microsoft Excel format: 2008 Cy Young Predictions (final).