Rogers Hornsby Chapter

2010 Cy Young Award Prognosticator Results

Jim Baker is the winning prognosticator for the 2010 Cy Young Award poll. Craig Lukshin finished a close second.

The complete final results of our chapter’s poll are here (in Excel format)

November Meeting Summary

Twelve chapter members were entertained at the November monthy meeting with the 1944 World Series program, the official score book for the first all star game in 1933 (shown above), and a baseball quiz in which members had to name one baseball player for each letter of the alphabet.

Norman Macht brought the program and score book, which elicited oohs and aahs from the group.

Jan Larson brought an interesting quiz — using last names, name active or retired baseball players for each letter of the alphabet — and it came with a 10-minute time limit. Ira Siegel and Mike Dillion tied for first, with Siegel winning on a tie-breaker. His prize was “Take Me Out to the Ballpark: An Illustrated Tour of the Baseball Parks Past and Present.” Mike, a Boston Red Sox fan, turned down the second place prize — the 2010 New York Yankees Media Guide, which went to the next runner-up, Norman Macht.

The group also discussed Monte Cely’s Cy Young Prognosticator Poll, in which members made their guesses on Sept. 1 for the winners and runners-up to the award. The poll was won by Jim Baker, followed by Craig Lukshin. Jim took home the book, “The Last Days of Shea: Delight and Despair in the Life of a Mets Fan” for his crystal-ball skills.

We also discussed the announcement of Felix Hernandez as the American League Cy Young Award Winner. Some thought it was a victory for sabermetrics because Hernandez won on the strength of leading the league in earned run average (2.27) and innings pitched (249 2/3) and being second in strike-outs (232), despite having a 13-12 record for the offense-challenged and last place Seattle Mariners. One member thought Hernandez was undeserving because he pitched in meaningless games with the Mariners falling out of contention early in the season.

Tentative plans were made for the meeting in December — it will be at 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 16, with location to be announced.

Triple Milestones – 2010

Triple Milestones – 2010

By Bill Gilbert

Offensive production in the major leagues in 2010 was down significantly from 2009. The number of runs per game has declined each year from 9.72 in 2006 to 8.77 in 2010. The home run rate of 1.90 per game was down from the 2.02 rate in 2009. The major league batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average were all the lowest since 1992. All offensive categories are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:

Year Runs/Game HR/Game BAVG OBA SLG OPS Triple Milestone Hitters

—- ——— ——- —- —- —- — ————————

1990 8.51 1.58 .258 .324 .386 .710 2

1991 8.62 1.61 .255 .323 .384 .707 3

1992 8.23 1.44 .256 .322 .377 .699 2

1993 9.20 1.78 .266 .332 .404 .736 5

1994 9.85 2.07 .270 .339 .424 .763 3

1995 9.69 2.02 .267 .338 .417 .755 8

1996 10.07 2.19 .270 .340 .427 .767 21

1997 9.53 2.05 .267 .337 .419 .756 7

1998 9.58 2.08 .266 .335 .420 .755 14

1999 10.17 2.28 .271 .345 .434 .779 19

2000 10.28 2.34 .271 .345 .437 .782 26

2001 9.55 2.25 .264 .332 .427 .759 21

2002 9.24 2.09 .261 .331 .417 .748 12

2003 9.46 2.14 .264 .332 .422 .754 8

2004 9.63 2.25 .266 .335 .428 .763 12

2005 9.18 2.06 .265 .330 .419 .749 10

2006 9.72 2.22 .269 .336 .432 .768 13

2007 9.59 2.04 .268 .336 .423 .759 8

2008 9.30 2.01 .264 .333 .417 .750 7

2009 9.23 2.02 .262 .333 .418 .751 6

2010 8.77 1.90 .257 .325 .403 .728 6

Jose Bautista of Toronto hit 54 home runs, the first player to reach 50 since Alex Rodriguez in 2007. Two players hit 40 or more home runs in 2010 compared to five in 2009. The 30 home run level was reached by 18 players in 2010 compared to 30 in 2009.

A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Only six players reached all three milestones in 2010, the same as in 2009. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera were the only players who made it in both 2009 and 2010.

The remarkable career of Albert Pujols merits further attention. He has now played exactly 10 full seasons in the major leagues, establishing his Hall of Fame credentials. In each season, he has batted over .300 with over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Only Babe Ruth (12) has more such seasons and his best was eight in a row. An average season for Pujols is .331-41-123. Surprisingly, he has led the National League in batting only once, in home runs twice and once in RBIs.

Three players from each league achieved all three milestones in 2010. Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 10 seasons. There were two newcomers to the .300-30-100 club in 2010, Joey Votto and Carlos Gonzalez, bringing the total to 166 players who have registered at least one .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.

Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones

in 2010:

Player Times BAVG-HR-RBI Comments

National

Albert Pujols 10 .312-42-118 One of the all-time greats.

Joey Votto 1 .324-37-113 Strong contender for MVP.

Carlos Gonzalez 1 .336-34-117 An emerging superstar.

Player Times BAVG-HR-RBI Comments

American

Miguel Cabrera 4 .328-38-126 New high in home runs.

Josh Hamilton 2 .359-32-100 Three RBIs in last weekend.

Paul Konerko 2 .312-39-111 Consistent all year.

Four players achieved triple milestones in 2009 but fell short in 2010:

Player Times BAVG-HR-RBI BAVG-HR-RBI

In Past 2009 2010 Comments

Derrek Lee 2 .306-35-111 .260-19- 80 Couldn’t get untracked.

Ryan Braun 3 .320-32-114 .304-25-103 Power down.

Kendry Morales 2 .306-34-108 .290-11- 39 Season wrecked by injury.

Adam Lind 2 .305-35-114 .237-23- 72 Couldn’t overcome slow start.

The biggest obstacle in reaching triple milestones in 2010 was batting average. Nine players had 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in 2010 but fell short of a .300 batting average.

Adrian Gonzalez .298-31-101 Just missed.

Dan Uggla .287-33-105 New highs in all three categories

Corey Hart .283-31-102 New highs in HR and RBI.

Ryan Howard .276-31-108 Well below his norms.

David Ortiz .270-32-102 Came on strong after slow start.

Alex Rodriguez .270-30-125 Is he starting a decline?

Jose Bautista .260-54-124 The year’s big surprise.

Adam Dunn .260-38-103 Typical Dunn year.

Mark Teixeira .256-33-108 Another slow start.

Four other players came close to triple milestones in 2010, just missing on home runs.

Robinson Cano .319-29-109 Would have been first time.

Vladimir Guererro .300-29-115 Has done it 8 times.

Matt Holliday .312-28-103 Did it in 2006-2007.

Adrian Beltre .321-28-102 Did it with Dodgers in 2004.

A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2010, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.

Last

.300-30-100 .300-30-100

Player Seasons Season 2010 Comments

Vladimir Guerrero 8 2006 .300-29-115 Comeback year fell just short.

Todd Helton 5 2003 .256- 8- 37 In serious decline.

Chipper Jones 5 2001 .265-10- 46 Has become injury prone.

Jason Giambi 4 2002 .244- 6- 35 Strictly a bench player now.

Magglio Ordonez 4 2002 .303-12- 59 Season cut short by injury.

Ken Griffey, Jr. 3 1997 .184- 0- 7 Two generations are now gone.

Lance Berkman 3 2006 .248-14- 58 Bat has slowed down.

David Ortiz 3 2007 .270-32-102 Still has power.

Jim Thome 2 2002 .283-25- 59 Still a useful player.

Aramis Ramirez 2 2004 .241-25- 83 Can’t stay healthy.

Miguel Tejada 2 2004 .269 15- 71 Gradual decline continues.

Travis Hafner 2 2006 .278-13- 50 Can’t play every day.

Vernon Wells 2 2006 .273-31- 88 Somewhat of a comeback.

Matt Holliday 2 2007 .312-28-103 Made it only with Rockies.

In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple

milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the

eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been

elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.

No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2009. With Joey Votto of the Reds making the list, twenty nine of the thirty major league teams have now had at least one triple milestone hitter since the year 2000. Kansas City has not had a triple milestone hitter since Danny Tartabull in 1991.

Minor league players also recorded triple milestone seasons in 2010.

Player Team (Level) Organization Age BAVG-HR-RBI

Rich Poythress High Desert (HiA) Seattle 22 .315-31-129

Paul Goldschmidt Visalia (HiA) Arizona 22 .314-35-108

Another had Triple Milestone Stats in the minors but not overall.

Mark Trumbo Salt Lake City (AAA) Los Angeles 24 .301-36-122

Los Angeles (AL) .067- 0- 2

.294-36-124

Another came very close.

Clint Robinson NW Arkansas (AA) Kansas City 24 .335-29- 98

No college players achieved triple milestones in 2009

Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. No pitchers made it in 2009. However, in 2010, the year of the pitcher, two pitchers made it, Adam Wainwright (20-11, 213, 2.42) and Roy Halladay (21-10, 219, 2.44). Halladay made it in 2008 and Wainwright just missed in 2009.

TRIP2010.DOC

11/5/10

Edited to correct the number of times Albert Pujols has led the National League in RBIs. 11/7/10.

Post-Season Prediction results – 2010

The only player to correctly name the winner in all four LDS, Craig was also only one of three players to glean any points from the rounds beyond the LDS. Only he, Brian and Norman had the foresight to pick the Rangers to make it to the World Series and only Brian did it in the correct amount of games: six. For his efforts, Brian is the 2010 runner-up. Third place goes to Tom, who gets the nod over Michael and Steve on the basis of having been the closest on the total number of games played in the postseason. Even though we don’t know the duration of the World Series yet, we do know the game total won’t exceed 34.)

Hornsby Postseason 2010!			Total	PHI-CIN			ATL-SFG			TBR-TEX			NYY-MIN			NLCS			ALCS			World Series			# games
Hornsby Postseason 2010!			Total	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	Win	G	Pts	predicted
1	Craig	Lukshin	27	PHI	3	5	SFG	4	5	TEX	4	4	NYY	5	4	PHI	6	0	TEX	7	9	PHI	6	0	35
2	Brian	Rogers	17	PHI	4	4	ATL	4	-5	TEX	4	4	NYY	5	4	PHI	5	0	TEX	6	10	PHI	5	0	33
3	Tom	Wancho	9	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TEX	5	5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	6	0	MIN	6	0	PHI	6	0	35
4	Michael	Bass	9	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	NYY	4	4	PHI	6	0	NYY	7	0	PHI	7	0	37
5	Steve	Fall	9	PHI	5	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	NYY	5	4	PHI	6	0	TBR	7	0	TBR	7	0	39
6	Wells	Oliver	8	PHI	4	4	SFG	3	4	TBR	5	-4	NYY	4	4	PHI	6	0	TBR	6	0	PHI	6	0	34
7	Norman	Macht	8	PHI	5	4	ATL	5	-5	TEX	5	5	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TEX	7	9	PHI	6	0	39
8	Monte	Cely	0	PHI	4	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	5	-4	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TBR	7	0	TBR	7	0	38
8	Gary	McIntosh	0	CIN	5	-5	SFG	4	5	TEX	5	5	MIN	5	-5	CIN	6	0	MIN	6	0	CIN	7	0	38
10	Jim	Baker	-1	PHI	3	5	SFG	5	4	TBR	4	-5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	5	0	TBR	6	0	TBR	7	0	34
11	Gilbert	Martinez	-1	PHI	5	4	SFG	4	5	TBR	4	-5	MIN	5	-5	PHI	6	0	TBR	6	0	TBR	7	0	37
12	Jan	Larson	-2	PHI	4	4	SFG	5	4	TBR	4	-5	MIN	4	-5	PHI	5	0	TBR	6	0	PHI	6	0	34
13	Bill	Gilbert	-2	PHI	4	4	ATL	5	-5	TBR	4	-5	NYY	4	4	ATL	6	0	TBR	6	0	ATL	6	0	35

Final Predictatron Results – 2010

The 2010 Hornsby Chapter Predictatron has come to an end and with that we find Gilbert is the champion. Gilbert’s rise from 9^th place (out of 11) in 2009 is most dramatic. He improved by 62 points, which should give hope for 2011 to all who did not fare so well this year.

For the second year in a row, Tom finished in second place; this time, by the smallest possible margin. While Gilbert’s winning score was six points less than Michael’s championship tally from 2009, the group averaged 12 more points than it did last year: up from 755 to 767. The biggest improvement was made by Jim, who only scored 718 last year, while the biggest drop was recorded by Jan, who fell 44 points. Michael’s loss of 40 points from 2009 caused a 10^th-place finish in 2010 on the heels of last year’s championship.

Hornsby Predictatron 2010 Final
	PLAYER	Final Score	Reg Season
1	Gilbert Martinez	794	778
2	Tom Wancho	793	775
3	Dan Walsh	790	778
4	Jim Baker	789	775
5	Craig Lukshin	783	775
6	Mike Dillon	777	763
7	Wells Oliver	773	761
8	Monte Cely	764	752
9	Bill Gilbert	763	755
10	Michael Bass	760	746
11	Paul Sporer	733	725
12	Jan Larson	726	712
13	Norman Macht	723	717

November Meeting

The next meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter will be held at 6 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 18, at Third Base located at 1717 West 6th Street in Austin. If you plan to attend, please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com.

Hornsby members take in Game 1 of the ALCS

Four Hornsby Chapter members got a chance to watch Game 1 of the American League Championship Series between the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Pictured, from left, are Cy Morong, Monte Cely, Jan Larson and Gilbert Martinez.

As the first ALCS game in Texas Rangers franchise history, the atmosphere at the game was electric. Team President Nolan Ryan threw out the first pitch with his signature leg kick and fast ball. After the Yankees went down in order on the top of the first, the crowd really went wild when Josh Hamilton smoked a line drive down the right field line for a three-run home run and early lead.

The Rangers later increased their lead to 5-0, but the Yankees showed they weren’t done. With a solo home run by Robinson Cano in the 7^th inning, the Yankees brought their bats to bear in the 8^th inning. In that inning, they had seven batters reach base safely – a single, a double, two walks and three singles – before the Rangers recorded an out. The Rangers used five pitchers that inning, but the damage was done as the Yankees scored five runs that inning to take the lead.

Some of the Rangers fans lost faith and headed for the exits, but many were still around, hoping for a response by the home nine. When Ian Kinsler reached first on a walk to start the bottom of the 8^th inning, many in the crowd sensed a come-back. But alas for the Rangers, Yankees reliever Kerry Wood picked off Kinsler at first. The Yankees held on to win Game 1, 6-5.

October Meeting Summary

Thirteen members and guests of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter enjoyed League Championship games at Gilbert and Raeanne Martinez’s house on Saturday, Oct. 16. The Rangers won Game 2 of the ALCS to even their series and the Giants topped the Phillies in Game 1 of what was supposed to be a pitching duel that instead turned into a homerun derby with four long balls.

Cy Morong won the award for traveling the furthest (from San Antonio) to attend the 2^nd Annual Playoffs Watch Party and Cookout.

Steve and Katty Fall won the award for most consecutive hours awake among the party participants – some 17 hours (!), thanks to prior commitments throughout the day.

Chuck and Jennifer Kaufman took home the prize for most sporting-related events during the weekend, which included watching part of the Rangers-Yankees game, a Texas State Bobcats football game and a Texas Stars hockey game the next night!

After the baseball games, we watched the latest episode of The Simpsons, an animated show that depicts Lisa becoming manager of Bart’s little league baseball team and injecting sabermetrics and statistical analysis. It’s well worth watching if you haven’t seen it. Look for appearances by Bill James and Mike Scioscia. The episode, called “MoneyBART,” can be seen on the Fox website, or by clicking here.

No date was set for the November meeting, but it will probably be in mid-November. More details soon.

Astros Begin Reloading in 2010 Season

By Bill Gilbert

After a miserable start to the 2010 season, the Houston Astros made a mid-course correction in July. Astro icons Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman were traded for 6 younger players and the Club made a modest recovery in the second half of the season with rookies manning four positions in most games. Catcher Jason Castro and third baseman Chris Johnson were recalled from the minor leagues, first baseman Chris Wallace was acquired as an add-on to the Oswalt trade and shortstop, Angel Sanchez was obtained in a trade with the Red Sox to share the shortstop job with fellow rookie Tommy Manzella.

After losing 5-2 to the Giants on opening night to start an 8-game losing streak, the Astros never reached .500 and dropped as much as 19 games below on July 4. Two and a half months later, the team improved to a mark of 73-77 on September 20 before faltering on a 10-day road trip to finish at 76-86, two games ahead of last year. The Club spent most of September in 3^rd place ahead of the Brewers but needed a shutout of the Cubs on the final game of the season to finish a game ahead of the Cubs in 4^th place. The Astros compiled a record of 40-33 after the All-Star break.

The biggest problem the team faced was a lack of offensive production, particularly early in the season from the three hitters in the middle of the lineup, Berkman, Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence. Pence and Lee improved in the second half as Pence hit 25 home runs for the third straight year and led the team with 91 RBIs. Lee was close behind with 24 home runs and 89 RBIs but his .246 batting average was far below his career average of .291. Berkman had only 13 home runs and a .245 batting average before his trade on July 30. The team finished last in the National League in home runs and the only other Astro player in double figures was rookie Chris Johnson with 11 in a little over half of the season.

The team scored an average of 3.77 runs per game, far below the league average of 4.33. The Club allowed opposing teams 4.50 runs per game. With figures like this, a team would be expected to win about 66 rather than 76 games. Thus, it can be concluded that the team may not be as good as the record indicated. Compounding the lack of power is a deficiency in getting on base. The Astros finished last in the National League in both on-base percentage (.303 vs. league average of .324) and slugging percentage (.362 vs. league average of .399). They were also last in the major leagues in walks and next to last in runs.

Pence and Lee are the only established power hitters on the team. To overcome the power deficiency, newcomers Johnson, Wallace and Castro must provide about 20-25 home runs apiece if the Astros are to be competitive since little power can be expected from the second base, shortstop and center field positions.

There were a few offensive bright spots for the Astros in 2010. Johnson batted .308, the highest figure among National League rookies. Second baseman Jeff Keppinger batted .288 and was the hardest player in the league to strike out. Michael Bourn led the league in stolen bases with 52 and again played gold glove-caliber defense in center field. And who can forget the unlikely 4-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia in August.

Turning to pitching, the Astros were in the middle of the pack with an ERA of 4.09 vs. the league average of 4.02. After the departure of Oswalt, Brett Myers was the staff ace with a 14-9 record and an ERA of 3.14. He pitched 6 or more innings in his first 32 starts before getting hit hard in his final start of the season and being removed after 5 2/3 innings. Wandy Rodriguez, after a very slow start, was the only other pitcher with more than 10 wins with a record of 11-12 and an ERA of 3.60. The bullpen was reasonably effective and produced two pitchers with 20+ saves in Matt Lindstrom (23) and Brandon Lyon (20). It was only the 5^th time that a team had two pitchers with 20 saves.

Looking forward, the Astros resurgence in the second half of the season provides some hope for 2011. Manager Brad Mills and his staff are providing the type of leadership and stability the team needs. The starting pitching was generally strong in the second half with the emergence of J.A. Happ, obtained in the Oswalt trade, the continued development of Bud Norris and the surprising success of Nelson Figueroa. The bullpen was strengthened by the addition of Wilton Lopez, Fernando Abad and Mark Melancon. However, on the offensive side, the lack of power and on-base skills must be addressed if the team is to be a contender.

10/6/10

October Meeting/Playoffs Watch Party

It’s time for the 2nd Annual Rogers Hornsby Chapter Playoff Watch Party and Cookout! We’ll watch Game 2 of the ALCS and Game 1 of the NLCS on Saturday, Oct. 16.

The times for the games have not been announced, but one game will probably start in mid-afternoon and the other will be in the evening. A follow-up email will be sent out once start times are announced.

This will serve as the monthly meeting for the chapter.

For those who were able to attend last year, you may remember the fun time we had at Gilbert’s house. We saw the Dodgers close out the Cardinals in a three-game sweep and would’ve watched the second game, but it was snowed out in Colorado!

Gilbert will grill hamburgers and veggie burgers. You can bring a side dish, or dessert, or beverages. Please email me directly with what you plan to bring so we have a variety.

Please RSVP directly to Gilbert and he will send you his home address and home phone.

Questions? Dietary needs the cook should know about? Email Gilbert off list at gmartinez46@austin.rr.com.