Rogers Hornsby Chapter

Rating the Veterans Committee Candidates for the Hall of Fame 2009

Rating the Veterans Committee Candidates for the Hall of Fame

On December 8, the results of the Veterans Committee voting for the Hall of Fame will be announced. There are two ballots, each with 10 names. One is for players who made their major league debuts in or after 1943 and the other is for players who made their major league debuts before 1943. All of the players on the second list are now deceased.

The voters are different for each of the two groups. For the post-1943 players, the voters are the 64 living Hall of Fame players and an election is held every two years. For the pre-1943 players, the voting is done by a panel of 12 Hall members and members of the media. Elections for this group are held every 5 years. Each participant in both elections can vote for up to four candidates allowing for a maximum of five selections. In each case, a player must receive votes on at least 75% of the ballots cast in order to be elected.

The rules state that those whose careers included involvement as managers/executives/ umpires will be considered for their overall contribution to the game.

In an attempt to rate the players on both lists, Win Shares and OPS+ were used as measures of performance for position players and Win Shares and ERA+ were used for pitchers. The Win Shares system, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer”.

OPS+ compares a players On Base Percentage plus Slugging Average (OPS), after some minor adjustments for context, against the league OPS for the years of his career. A player with an OPS+ of 130 has an adjusted OPS 30% better than the league average. ERA+ is a similar concept for pitchers. An ERA+ of 130 is 30% better than the league average.

Win Shares basically measure the quantity of a player’s accomplishments while OPS+/ERA+ measure the quality of his performance.

Here are the Win Shares and OPS+/ERA+ for the ten players on both lists ranked by Win Shares. These figures are then compared to examples of solid Hall of Famers (Willie McCovey, Bob Gibson) and borderline Hall of Famers (Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven).

Player (1943+)	Win Shares	OPS+/ERA+
Dick Allen	342	156
Ron Santo	324	123
Vada Pinson	321	110
Joe Torre	315	129
Al Oliver	305	122
Jim Kaat (P)	268	107
Gil Hodges	263	119
Luis Tiant (P)	256	114
Maury Wills	253	88
Tony Oliva	245	130

*Examples*
Willie McCovey	408	148
Bob Gibson (P)	317	127
Jim Rice	282	127
Bert Blyleven (P)	339	118

Player (Pre-1943)	Win Shares	OPS+/ERA+
Bill Dahlen	394	109
Sherry Magee	354	137
Mickey Vernon	296	116
Vern Stephens	265	118
Bucky Walters (P)	258	115
Carl Mays (P)	256	119
Joe Gordon	242	121
Wes Ferrell (P)	233	117
Deacon White	190	122
Allie Reynolds (P)	170	110

The numbers above suggest that, while none of these players has an iron clad case for the Hall, Allen, Santo, Dahlen and Magee have numbers that provide credible credentials for Hall entry. Hodges and especially Torre can make respectable cases when their success as managers is taken into account.

Since these players have been passed over numerous times in previous elections, their chances of getting 75% of the voters to decide in their favor cannot be very high. My guess is that none will be elected this time with Santo and Hodges having the best chance.

Bill Gilbert

12/6/08

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2008?

By Bill Gilbert

Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:

1. The ability to get on base.

2. The ability to hit with power.

3. The ability to add value through baserunning.

The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:

BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)

Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance

TB = Total Bases

BB = Bases on Balls

HB = Hit by Pitch

SB = Stolen Bases

CS = Caught Stealing

GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays

AB = At Bats

SF = Sacrifice Flies

The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.

Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:

Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

BPA .467 .463 .471 .463 .463 .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458

.550 38 37 41 34 41 50 50 46 39 42 33 34 46 34 41

.600 16 15 21 15 22 29 30 26 17 15 18 13 14 15 11

Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this decade. BPA in 2008 was down slightly from 2007.

In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the nine year period from 2000 to 2008, there have been 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921). Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There were no hitters with a BPA of .700 in 2008 and the only player to make it in 2007 was Alex Rodriguez (.702). Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his eight seasons. However, he was the leader in 2008 by a large margin with a BPA of .685, the first time he has finished on top.

The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2007 are listed below:

Player Team Year BPA

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2001 .907

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2004 .882

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2002 .869

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2003 .818

Sammy Sosa Chicago Cubs 2001 .758

Barry Bonds San Francisco 2000 .745

Jim Thome Cleveland 2002 .728

Manny Ramirez Cleveland 2000 .726

Todd Helton Colorado 2000 .720

Luis Gonzalez Arizona 2001 .713

Todd Helton Colorado 2001 .709

Carlos Delgado Toronto 2000 .707

Larry Walker Colorado 2001 .707

Jason Giambi Oakland 2000 .706

Travis Hafner Cleveland 2006 .703

Alex Rodriguez NY Yankees 2007 .702

Jason Giambi Oakland 2001 .700

Ryan Howard Philadelphia 2006 .700

The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:

1992 Bonds .734 1993 Bonds .740 1994 Bagwell .768

1995 Belle .692 1996 McGwire .765 1997 Walker .770

1998 McGwire .799 1999 McGwire .735 2000 Bonds .745

2001 Bonds .907 2002 Bonds .869 2003 Bonds .818

2004 Bonds .882 2005 D. Lee .699 2006 Hafner .703

2007 A. Rodriguez .702 2008 Pujols .685

The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 11 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2008.

Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2008

————————————————-

No. of

2007 2008 .600+

Player BPA BPA LG Seasons Comments

1 Pujols, A. .583 .685 N 6 Clearly the top offensive player.

2 Ramirez, M. .518 .636 A/N 11 New life on the West Coast.

3 Berkman, L. .570 .633 N 5 Back on list after an off-year.

4 Ramirez, H. .634 .629 N 2 Emerging superstar

5 Jones, C. .629 .625 N 4 Still one of the best.

6 Holliday, M. .621 .624 N 2 Solid production, especially at Coors.

7 Rodriguez, A, .702 .623 A 10 Not up to his usual standard.

8 Bradley, M. .493 .617 A 1 Misses a lot of games.

9 Ludwick, R. .530 .615 N 1 Can he do it again?

10 Quentin, C. .397 .612 A 1 Carried the White Sox for months.

11 Sizemore, G. .572 .611 A 2 Can do it all.

The only repeaters from last year’s list are Hanley Ramirez, Jones, Holliday and Rodriguez. Eleven other players had a BPA over .600 in 2007 but fell short in 2008. Most of these players had strong seasons in 2008 but not up to their exceptional performance in 2007.

No. of

2007 2008 .600+

Player BPA BPA LG Seasons Comments

1 Pena, C. .678 .567 A 1 Didn’t quite repeat 2007 career year.

2 Ortiz, D. .663 .555 A 5 Held back by injured wrist.

3 Fielder, P. .659 .552 N 1 Slow start held him back.

4 Howard, R. .631 .577 N 2 Came on strong in September.

5 Wright, D. .626 .581 N 1 Didn’t quite match big year in 2007.

6 Granderson, C..621 .554 A 1 Good but not great.

7 Thome, J. .621 .550 A 12 In gradual decline.

8 Dunn, A. .617 .596 N/A 3 Consistent year-to-year.

9 Utley, C. .614 .593 N 1 Does everything well.

10 Ordonez, M. .612 .485 A 2 Big drop-off from strong 2007 season.

11 Teixeira, M. .609 .593 N/A 3 Consistently productive.

Five players who had a BPA over .600 and qualified for the batting title in 2008 also have a career BPA over .600. These are the top offensive players in the major leagues who are currently performing at a peak level.

2008 Career

Player Age BPA BPA Comments.

———— — —- —- ——–

Albert Pujols 28 .685 .646 One of the best RH hitters ever.

Alex Rodriguez 32 .623 .628 One of the best RH hitters ever.

Manny Ramirez 36 .636 .622 One of the best RH hitters ever.

Lance Berkman 32 .633 .616 Among the best switch hitters.

Hanley Ramirez 24 .629 .609 Building solid credentials.

Another list of interest is one containing the names of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2008 who, for one reason or another, did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title. There are 5 players on this list in 2008 with 100 or more plate appearances.

Player Age BPA PA Comments

————— — —- — —————————

Chris Dickerson 26 .686 122 Late season call-up by Cincinnati

Nelson Cruz 27 .669 133 Also had big minor league season.

Rafael Furcal 30 .640 164 Missed most of season with bad back.

Russell Branyan 32 .638 152 Played very well before getting hurt.

Mike Napoli 26 .637 274 Exceptional power for a catcher.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, nine players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2008. As usual most are middle infielders and catchers.

Player BPA Comments

—————– —- ——————————

Jason Kendall .396 Only repeater on this list.

Kurt Suzuki .392 Second catcher on the list.

Miguel Tejada .391 Set NL record for GIDP in 2008.

Edgar Renteria .391 Can’t seem to hit in American League

Jeff Francoeur .376 Only outfielder on this list.

Bobby Crosby .375 Last 3 seasons at same level.

Freddy Sanchez .370 Very disappointing season

Yuniesky Betancourt .368 Doesn’t get on base enough.

Jeff Keppinger .361 Didn’t produce as a full-time player.

The following six players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2008:

Player (2008) BAVG OBA SLG BPA

Albert Pujols .357 .462 .653 .685

Manny Ramirez .332 .430 .601 .636

Lance Berkman .312 .420 .567 .633

Hanley Ramirez .301 .400 .540 .629

Chipper Jones .364 .470 .574 .625

Matt Holliday .321 .409 .538 .624

Milton Bradley .321 .436 .563 .617

Five active players have these numbers for their careers, although Helton and Thomas fell far short in 2008:

Player (Career) BAVG OBA SLG BPA

Albert Pujols .334 .425 .624 .646

Manny Ramirez .314 .411 .593 .622

Lance Berkman .302 .413 .560 .616

Todd Helton .328 .428 .574 .615

Frank Thomas .301 .419 .555 .604

Bill Gilbert

11/11/08

Triple Milestones – 2008

Triple Milestones – 2008

By Bill Gilbert

Offensive production in the major leagues continued to decline in 2008. The home run rate of 2.01 per game was the lowest since 1993. All offensive categories were down in 2008 and are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:

Year Runs/Game HR/Game BAVG OBA SLG OPS Triple Milestone Hitters

—- ——— ——- —- —- —- — ————————

1990 8.51 1.58 .258 .324 .386 .710 2

1991 8.62 1.61 .255 .323 .384 .707 3

1992 8.23 1.44 .256 .322 .377 .699 2

1993 9.20 1.78 .266 .332 .404 .736 5

1994 9.85 2.07 .270 .339 .424 .763 3

1995 9.69 2.02 .267 .338 .417 .755 8

1996 10.07 2.19 .270 .340 .427 .767 21

1997 9.53 2.05 .267 .337 .419 .756 7

1998 9.58 2.08 .266 .335 .420 .755 14

1999 10.17 2.28 .271 .345 .434 .779 19

2000 10.28 2.34 .271 .345 .437 .782 26

2001 9.55 2.25 .264 .332 .427 .759 21

2002 9.24 2.09 .261 .331 .417 .748 12

2003 9.46 2.14 .264 .332 .422 .754 8

2004 9.63 2.25 .266 .335 .428 .763 12

2005 9.18 2.06 .265 .330 .419 .749 10

2006 9.72 2.22 .269 .336 .432 .768 13

2007 9.59 2.04 .268 .336 .423 .759 8

2008 9.30 2.01 .264 .333 .417 .750 7

No players hit 50 home runs in 2008 and only 2 hit 40 (Ryan Howard 46 and Adam Dunn 40). In 2007, two players reached the 50 HR mark and 5 hit 40. In 2006, 13 players reached the 40 level. The 30 home run level was reached by 28 players in 2008 compared to 26 in 2007 and 34 in 2006.

A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Seven players reached all three milestones in 2008, down from 8 in 2007 and 13 in 2006. Four players made it in both 2007 and 2008, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and David Wright.

Four American League players achieved all three milestones in 2008 while three National League Players made it. Albert Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 8 seasons. The only newcomer to the .300-30-100 club in 2008 was Josh Hamilton who became the 161st player to register a .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.

Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones

in 2008:

Player Times BAVG-HR-RBI Comments

American

Alex Rodriguez 8 .302-35-103 Not one of his best years.

Mark Teixeira 3 .308-33-121 Combined record in NL and AL.

Aubrey Huff 2 .304-32-108 Came in under the radar.

Josh Hamilton 1 .304-32-130 Great comeback story.

Player Times BAVG-HR-RBI Comments

National

Manny Ramirez 10 .332-37-121 Back after missing in 2007.

Albert Pujols 8 .357-37-116 Eight straight years.

David Wright 2 .302-33-124 May be starting a long string.

Four players achieved triple milestones in 2007 but fell short in 2008:

Player Times BAVG-HR-RBI BAVG-HR-RBI

In Past 2007 2008 Comments

David Ortiz 3 .332-35-117 .264-23- 89 Injured wrist.

Miguel Cabrera 2 .320-34-119 .292-37-127 BAVG down.

Matt Holliday 2 .340-36-137 .321-25- 88 Lost power stroke.

Carlos Lee 2 .303-32-119 .314-28-100 Missed 66 games.

Three players came within one swing of the bat of reaching triple milestones.

Kevin Youkilis .312-29-115 Needed another homer.

Lance Berkman .312-29-106 Hit only 2 homers in September.

Ryan Ludwick .299-37-113 Needed another hit.

A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2008, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.

Last

.300-30-100 .300-30-100

Player Seasons Season 2008 Comments

Frank Thomas 7 2000 .240- 8- 30 End of the line.

Gary Sheffield 6 2003 .225-19- 57 Injuries have taken toll.

Todd Helton 5 2003 .264- 7- 29 Bad back ruined season.

Chipper Jones 5 2001 .364-22- 75 Misses too much time.

Jason Giambi 4 2002 .247-32- 96 Still has power.

Magglio Ordonez 4 2002 .317-21-103 Still productive.

Ken Griffey, Jr. 3 1997 .249-18- 71 Winding down HOF career.

Carlos Delgado 3 2005 .271-38-115 Strong second half.

Moises Alou 2 2000 .347- 0- 9 Body breaking down.

Brian Giles 2 2000 .306-12- 63 Lost power stroke.

Luis Gonzalez 2 2001 .261- 8- 47 Just hanging on.

Jim Thome 2 2002 .245-34- 90 Strikes out, walks or homers.

Jeff Kent 2 2002 .280-12- 59 No longer a regular.

Aramis Ramirez 2 2004 .289-27-111 Usually comes close.

Miguel Tejada 2 2004 .283-13- 66 Decline accelerates.

In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple

milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the

eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been

elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.

No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2008. Twenty seven of the thirty major league teams have had at least one triple milestone hitter in the decade beginning with the year 2000. Of the three teams that haven’t, Cincinnati has the longest dry spell. Their last triple milestone hitter was George Foster in 1977. The others and the last player to do it are Kansas City (Danny Tartabull – 1991) and Milwaukee (John Jaha – 1996).

Three minor league players recorded triple milestone seasons in 2008. All three finished the season in the major leagues, two with the Texas Rangers.

Player Team (Level) Organization Age BAVG-HR-RBI

Nelson Cruz Oklahoma (AAA) Texas 27 .342-37- 99

Texas (AL) .330- 7- 26

.339-44-125

Chris Davis Frisco (AA) Texas 22 .333-13- 42

Oklahoma (AAA) .333-10- 31

Texas .285-17- 55

.309-40-128

Kila Ka’aihue NW Arkansas (AA) Florida 24 .312-26- 78

Omaha (AAA) .316-11- 21

Kansas City (AL) .286- 1- 1

.312-38-100

Four others came close:

Joe Koshansky Colo. Springs (AAA)Colorado 26 .300-31-121

Colorado (NL) .211- 3- 8

.293-34-129

Koshansky had minor league triple milestones but his overall batting average fell under .300 with his major league at-bats.

Scott McClain Fresno (AAA) San Francisco 36 .300-29-108

San Francisco (NL) .273- 2- 7

.298-31-115

McClain fell one home run short in the minor leagues. He added 2 homers in the majors but his overall batting average fell below .300.

Lou Montanez Bowie (AA) Baltimore 26 .335-26- 97

Baltimore (AL) .295- 3- 14

.327-29-111

Montanez fell short by one swing of the bat.

Brian Dopirak Dunedin Toronto 24 .308-27- 88

New Hampshire (AA) .287- 2- 13

.304-29-101

Dopirak, who had triple milestones in 2004 in the Cubs system, also fell short by one swing of the bat.

A player from the Independent Leagues also achieved triple milestones in 2008 and another one came close.

Josh Pressley Somerset (Atl) 28 .354-30-101

Pressley played 9 seasons in affiliated ball in 6 different organizations.

Carl Everett Long Island (Atl) 37 .327-29-100

Everett had a 14-year major league career including a triple milestone season with Boston in 2000.

No college players achieved triple milestones in 2008

Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Esteban Loaiza was the only pitcher to do it in 2003 (21-9, 207, 2.90). Johan Santana (20-6, 265, 2.61) did it in 2004 and Chris Carpenter (21-5, 213, 2.83) was the only one to do it in 2005. None made it in 2006. In 2007, Jake Peavy led the NL in all three categories (19-6, 240, 2.54) but fell one victory short when he failed to win the playoff game for the NL wild card. In 2008, Roy Halladay of Toronto broke through with a triple milestone season (20-11, 206, 2.78)

10/13/08

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?

By Bill Gilbert

Now that Goose Gossage has finally been elected to the Hall of Fame, it’s a good time to look ahead at the candidates that will be on the ballot in coming years. The 2008 ballot was very unfriendly to newcomers with the 543 members of the BBWAA awarding this group of 11 players only 143 votes, 132 of them to Tim Raines. None of the other 10 received as much as 1% of the votes and, as a result, will be eliminated from further consideration.

For convenience in identifying potential candidates in coming years, I chose to use Bill James Win Shares. James has stated that, in the past, 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer but he further states that it may not be the case in the future. To be inclusive, I used a cut point of 250 points for position players and 200 points for pitchers in this study.

Here are the players who meet my criteria and are eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the next five years.

2009 Ballot

Rickey Henderson	535 Win Shares
Mark Grace	294
David Cone	205

Unless he succeeds in another comeback, a possibility that can’t be eliminated with Rickey, Henderson will finally be eligible and should easily be elected with the likelihood of one of the more entertaining acceptance speeches in recent years.

None of the other 2009 newcomers is a strong candidate, opening the door for holdover, Jim Rice, to make it in his final year of eligibility.

2010 Ballot

Roberto Alomar	375 Win Shares
Barry Larkin	347
Fred McGriff	326
Edgar Martinez	305
Robin Ventura	272
Ellis Burks	260
Andres Galarraga	251

The 2010 Class is strong with several players likely to remain on the ballot for a number of years. While none may make it on the first ballot, the top four all have a chance with the passage of time.

2011 Ballot

Rafael Palmeiro	394 Win Shares
Jeff Bagwell	387
Larry Walker	307
John Olerud	301
Kevin Brown	241

Palmeiro and Bagwell clearly have the numbers but there is a question about how voters will treat power hitters from the steroid era.

2012 Ballot

Bernie Williams

311 Win Shares

The 2012 ballot shapes up as one even weaker than 2008 which could provide an opportunity for some holdovers to cash in.

2013 Ballot

The 2013 ballot, possibly headed by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, could be the strongest and most controversial ever.

Barry Bonds	705 Win Shares
Roger Clemens	437
Craig Biggio	428
Mike Piazza	325
Sammy Sosa	322
Luis Gonzalez	309
Steve Finley	297
Kenny Lofton	288
Julio Franco	280
David Wells	210

This class is likely to shrink since it contains several free agents who hope to continue their careers. The only one who has officially retired is Biggio/

Active Players

An impressive group of players are still active who have enough Win Shares to qualify for these lists when they retire.

Gary Sheffield	418 Win Shares
Frank Thomas	400
Greg Maddux	392
Ken Griffey, Jr.	381
Alex Rodriguez	377
Manny Ramirez	348
Jeff Kent	330
Chipper Jones	326
Jim Thome	325
Tom Glavine	289
Randy Johnson	309
Ivan Rodriguez	308
Derek Jeter	301
Jason Giambi	289
John Smoltz	286
Jim Edmonds	283
Carlos Delgado	275
Moises Alou	275
Vladimir Guerrero	272
Bobby Abreu	267
Brian Giles	266
Omar Vizquel	262
Mike Mussina	254
Curt Schilling	252
Todd Helton	252
Pedro Martinez	251
Jamie Moyer	202
Kenny Rogers	202

Bill Gilbert

1/11/08

On-Base Percentage as a Measure of Offensive Performance

About 20 years ago, I recall asking a group of knowledgeable baseball friends what they thought the best single statistic was for measuring offensive performance. The consensus was that it was slugging average. If I posed the same question today to respected baseball analysts, I’m certain that the answer would be on-base percentage and they could cite studies to support their position.

The importance of on-base percentage in scoring runs is obvious. However, is it always the best way to evaluate a player’s performance? Consider the curious case of Morgan Ensberg. In 2005, Ensberg had a breakout year, batting .283 with 36 home runs, 101 RBIs and an on-base percentage of .388. He was voted the Most Valuable Player on Houston’s National League Championship team and finished 4^th in the voting for the National League MVP.

In 2006, he started out on an even stronger pace with 9 home runs and 19 RBIs in April. Among National League batters, only Albert Pujols had a better month. Ensberg finished the 2006 season with an on-base percentage of .396, an improvement over his strong showing in 2005. So he must have had a better year in 2006 than in 2005. Not so fast. Let’s take a look at the other numbers.

In 2006, Ensberg batted .235 with 23 home runs and only 58 RBIs. He began the season batting 4^th in the lineup behind Lance Berkman and in front of Preston Wilson and Jason Lane. His primary job was to drive in runs, and with Berkman having an outstanding season, he had plenty of opportunities.

Ensberg’s performance tailed off sharply in May when he batted only .216 and was even worse in June. He was batting .174 for the month when he injured his right shoulder on June 9. He missed a week before returning to the lineup. He was obviously hampered by the shoulder injury and finally went on the disabled list on July 10.

Ensberg’s poor performance and injury prompted the Astros to trade away two prospects to Tampa Bay for third baseman Aubrey Huff. It also provided an opportunity for Mike Lamb to play third base. When Ensberg returned from the disabled list on August 1, he did not play well enough to regain his starting position and he played intermittently for the remainder of the season. In August and September, Ensberg had an on-base percentage well over .400 but had only 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in 171 plate appearances, an unacceptable rate for a batter in the middle of the order.

Ensberg seemed reluctant to swing the bat when he came back, which may have been due to continued shoulder soreness. He did not hit with power and appeared to be working for walks which also resulted in a lot of strikeouts. He did not provide the type of offensive production that the offensively-challenged Astros needed in the middle of the batting order.

With Ensberg’s failure as a run producer, the Astros needed to beef up the offense and may have overspent and mortgaged the future in signing free agent, Carlos Lee, to a 6-year, $100 million contract. Another reason for the need for more run production was the failure of Jason Lane to produce in 2006. Lane led all NL right fielders in home runs in 2005 with 26 while batting .267. However, in 2006, he hit just 15 home runs while batting only .201. Lane, like Ensberg, had a higher on-base percentage in 2006 than he did in 2005.

What can be learned from this development is that on-base percentage, while important, especially for hitters at the top of the batting order, can be much less important for hitters in the middle of the order who are expected to be run producers.

Bill Gilbert

3/6/07

Members’ Favorites

Nine Questions

(presented November 2008)

(Move the mouse over the blank space to see the answer)

1.	Who are the two players that have hit home runs in the major leagues as both as teenagers and 40-year olds? Hint: Their names rhyme. (Submitted by Bill Gilbert)	Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub
2.	Name the only pitcher to homer as a pinch hitter in his first major league at bat. (Submitted by Jan Larson)	Gene Stechschulte, St. Louis, 4/17/2001. He hit a home run on the first pitch and it was the only home run of his major league career.
3.	How does a team get 3 triples, a double, 2 singles, and 2 steals in one inning and NOT score? (Submitted by Michael Bass)	1 – Triple, runner thrown out at home (1 out) 2 – Triple, runner picked off third (2 outs) 3 – Double 4 – Infield single, runner holds 5 – Double steal, runners to second and third. 6 – Infield single, runners hold 7 – Ball hit out of the park, runners congregate at home, batter-runner touches home before any of them, called out. Scored a triple (3 outs). 0 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 3 left on base
4.	Who is the only pitcher to lose 20 games for a pennant-winning team? (Submitted by Norman Macht)	George Mullin 1907 Detroit Tigers
5.	Who are the seven players who have 150 or more RBIs in a season since 1995? One of them has done it twice. (Submitted by Jeff Petry)	(a) Andres Galarraga (150 in 1996) (b) Albert Belle (152 in 1998) (c) Juan Gonzalez (157 in 1998) (d) Sammy Sosa (158 in 1998) (e) Manny Ramirez (165 in 1999) (f) Sammy Sosa (160 in 2001) (g) Miguel Tejada (150 in 2004) (h) Alex Rodriguez (156 in 2007)
6.	Since 1947, only one player has hit more than 50 home runs and struck out fewer than 50 times in one season. Name the player. (Submitted by Chuck Kaufman)	Johnny Mize, 51 home runs and 42 strikeouts in 1947.
7.	Name the Cubs’ pitcher who was on the mound when Chicago turned all three of its triple plays during the 1965 season. (Submitted by Dan Walsh)	Bill Faul
8.	Which three players hold the record for the most consecutive years as teammates? (Submitted by Tom Wancho)	George Brett, Hal McRae, Frank White, Kansas City Royals (1973-1987)
9.	World Series games were played in this ballpark for three years in a row, but the home team was in only two of those World Series. Name the ballpark Name the years played Name the teams in each World Series (Submitted by Norman Macht)	Comiskey Park: 1917 White Sox-Giants 1918 Cubs-Red Sox 1919 White Sox-Reds

Best Not in the Hall of Fame

Here are the results of the recent poll where SABR/Hornsby Chapter members were asked to vote on the best players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The guidelines were that the player must be eligible for Veteran’s Committee consideration and have played in a major league (NL,AL, FL) in the modern era.

Of the eight ballots submitted, the following registered votes:

Five votes each: Ron Santo (3B), Dick Allen (OF, 1B, DH), Bobby Grich (2B)

Four votes: Jim Kaat (P)

Three votes each: Bill Dahlen (SS), Bert Blyleven (P) (note, Blyleven still has BBWAA eligibility), Minnie Minoso (OF)

Received two votes each:

1B – Gil Hodges; P – Smokey Joe Wood, Luis Tiant, Tommy John; OF – Tony Oliva, "Indian" Bob Johnson, Sherry Magee, Jimmy Wynn

Received one vote each:

C – Ted Simmons, Bob O’Farrell, Bill Freehan, Joe Torre, Gene Tenance; 1B – Stuffy McInnis, Don Mattingly, Norm Cash; SS – Dick Bartell, Davey Concepcion, Vern Stephens; 3B – Darrell Evans; OF – Bibb Falk, Vada Pinson, Reggie Smith, Dale Murphy; SP – Lefty O-Doul, Sam Leever, Lon Warneke, Mike Garcia, Paul Derringer, Jerry Koosman; RP – Dan Quisenberry

New Book Review – Cooperstown Confidential

A new book review has been posted for Cooperstown Confidential, by Zev Chafets.

Follow the link below, or navigate to Research & Articles, and then to Reviews:

chapters.sabr.org/hornsby/research/reviews/46-cooperstown-confidential

Cooperstown Confidential

Cooperstown Confidential

Heroes, Rogues, and the Inside Story of the Baseball Hall of Fame

By Zev Chafets

A Baseball Book Review

Monte Cely

cely@swbell.net

(512) 310-9777

Cooperstown Confidential is a critical expose’ of the Baseball Hall of Fame. The book was mentioned recently in sportswriter Kirk Bohls’ column in the Austin American-Statesman. The main thrust of the book is to highlight the hypocrisy and politics surrounding the Hall of Fame selection process. A lot of the book examines the “character clause”, otherwise known as Rule 5 of the BBWAA Rules for Election, which states “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played”.

The author’s premise seems to be that the Baseball Hall of Fame has, at best, only selectively enforced the “character clause”, admitting gamblers, racists, adulterers and the like. He feels that the Hall now faces a huge dilemma, and potential irrelevance, if it begins to selectively enforce the “character clause” for those eligible players coming out of the steroids era. The book also looks at the selection of minorities, as well as the politics of election of others that may be out of favor with the baseball establishment.

Where the author did primary research or covered new (to me, at least) ground, such as his interview with Marvin Miller and the resignation of former Hall of Fame president Dale Petrosky, the book was at its best. Other areas of the book, regarding integration of blacks and Latinos and their consideration for the Hall, are old news. The “conclusions” about steroids, and their effect on the performance and health of baseball players, are controversial. The book advocates expanding Hall of Fame voting to new constituencies, including SABR members!

The book was an easy read, and for the most part an entertaining one.

Here are the key statistics:

Book: Cooperstown Confidential, Heroes, Rogues, and the Inside Story of the Baseball Hall of Fame

Author: Zev Chafets

Author Credentials: He is the author of eleven books, a contributor to the New York Times Magazine, a former columnist for the New York Daily News, and the founding managing editor of Jerusalem Report.

Published: 2009, Bloomsbury, ISBN 1-59691-545-5

Length: 237 pages

Price: Retail list – $25.00; Online: from $15.00 + ship.

St. Louis Cardinals Nicknames – and Other St.L Trivia

St. Louis Cardinals Nicknames

and Other St. Louis Baseball Trivia

(presented October, 2008)

(Move the mouse over the blank space to see the answer)

1.	NAME THE PLAYER AND HIS NICKNAME: He retired after the 1963 season and, after 46 years, is still voted the greatest Cardinal of them all.	Stan "the Man" Musial
2.	Skipper of the Cards’ first World Series winner	Roger "Rajah" Hornsby
3.	Cardinals pitcher that hit a home run in that first World Series.	Jesse "Pop" Haines
4.	Manager of the Gas House Gang and an early baseball "college boy"	Frankie "the Fordham Flash" Frisch
5.	This shortstop and NL MVP was tall and slender.	Marty "Slats" Marion
6.	This outfielder and Hall-of-Famer hailed from rural Roxboro, NC. He’s best known for his World Series "mad dash for home".	Enos "Country" Slaughter
7.	This Cards executive did not attend ballgames on Sundays. He had two popular nicknames, one derogatory and one complimentary.	Branch Rickey "El Cheapo" "Mahatma"
8.	This second baseman (1938-42) had a sinister look.	Frank "Creepy" Crespi
9.	This Hall of Fame pitcher from the 1930s had one famous nickname but was uncertain about his real given names (he used two versions)	"Dizzy" Dean, he used given names Jay Hanna and Jerome
10.	When his brother promised that they’d win 45 games that season, this Cards pitcher responded, "If you’ll win 30, I’ll take care of the rest."	Paul "Daffy" Dean
11.	This Gas House Gang third baseman/outfielder had two nicknames reflecting his daring base running.	John Roosevelt "Pepper" "Wild Horse of the Osage" Martin
12.	This Cardinals third baseman played in four 1940s World Series and was a hitting star against the Red Sox.	George "Whitey" Kurowski
13.	The last NL triple crown winner, this Cardinals outfielder had two nicknames, reflecting his funny running style and his physique.	Joe "Ducky" "Muscles" Medwick
14.	This St. Louis native was the Cards’ broadcaster from 1945 to 1969. He changed his last name to make it look "less Italian".	Harry Caray was born Harry Carabina
15.	This Cards pitcher was also a professional basketball player.	Bob "Hoot" Gibson
16.	This current Cards coach and former infielder played all nine positions in each of two seasons.	Jose "the Secret Weapon" Oquendo
17.	AND THE WINNERS ARE … Since the current MVP award was established in 1931, Cardinals players have won it 16 times. Name them and the year.	Frisch ’31, Dean ’34, Medwick ’37, M.Cooper ’42, Musial ’43,’46,’48 , Marion ’44, Boyer ’64, Cepeda ’67, Gibson ’68, Torre ’71, K.Hernandez ’79, McGee ’85, Pujols ’05,’08
18.	Name the 10 years when the Cardinals won the World Series (tops in the NL), name the opponent in each.	’26-Yankees, ’31-A’s, ’34-Tigers, ’42-Yankees, ’44-Browns, ’46 Red Sox, ’64- Yankees, ’67-Red Sox, ’82-Brewers, ’06-Tigers
19.	Besides the Cardinals, what two other St. Louis baseball teams won 20th Century major league pennants? Name the year(s).	Browns won 1944 AL pennant Terriers tied for 1915 Federal League pennant
20.	INTEGRATION ITEMS The Cardinals sported the major leagues’ first woman owner. Who was she?	Helene Britton
21.	In 1938, the Cards had the first Latino manager. Who was he?	Miguel "Mike" Gonzalez from Cuba
22.	When asked about attendance for Jackie Robinson’s first visit to St. Louis in 1947, Cards owner Sam Breadon allegedly remarked, "I’m concerned about how the fans might react. I’m also worried about the possibility of a strike." What strike was he referring to?	There was a potential streetcar workers strike during the Dodgers’ first visit to St. Louis.
23.	YOU HEARD IT HERE Stan Musial retired with 475 home runs. Studies have shown he might have hit over 600 home runs if the Sportsman’s Park right field pavilion screen would’ve been removed during the 1940s and early ’50s. Why didn’t the Cardinals take it down?	The Browns owned Sportsman’s Park; the Cards were tenants.
24.	Where did the Cardinals go for spring training in 1905?	Marlin, Texas
25.	This Cardinals pitcher was the first reliever to ever receive a vote for the Cy Young Award.	Lindy McDaniel
26.	This Cards catcher had a "walk off" steal of home.	Glenn Brummer
27.	15 MINUTES (WELL, MAYBE THREE HOURS) OF FAME Who was the winning pitcher in Game One of the 2006 World Series?	Anthony Reyes
28.	Who was the winning pitcher in the deciding Game Five of the 2006 WS?	Jeff Weaver