May 2025 Newsletter
By Gilbert D. Martinez
Thirteen chapter members and guests proved to be not so lucky for the hometown Round Rock Express, which hosted the Oklahoma City Comets on Star Wars Night at the chapter’s May meeting on Saturday.
After an early 2-1 lead, the Express did not strike back after the Comets plated six runs in the fifth inning, streaking their way to a 7-3 win. A key statistic that told the story of this game was team batting with runners in scoring position. The Comets excelled here, going six-for-eight while the Express went one-for-six, leaving 10 runners on base.
After the game, fans were treated to a Star Wars-themed drone show that depicted characters, scenes and audio clips from the movies and shows. The best one may have been the one with Grogu (aka Baby Yoda) levitating a baseball!
We also enjoyed a visit from Express General Manager Tim Jackson.
Linda Nichols had the best shoes at Dell Diamond — a new pair of Keds sneakers stitched like a baseball! Well done, Linda!
Before the game, chapter members and guests enjoyed a barbecue dinner at the Salt Lick.
SABR Webinar: Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe & the Hall
You may have seen the invitation to join a Zoom webinar at 6 p.m. (Central Time) Wednesday, May 21, about MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to remove Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and other members of the Chicago Black Sox and others from baseball’s permanently ineligible list. The discussion will also focus on sports gambling and the players’ newfound eligibility for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
The webinar will feature Don Van Natta Jr., Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter with ESPN, Keith O’Brien, author of “Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, and the Last Glory Days of Baseball,” and Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs senior writer and author of “Cooperstown Casebook: Who’s in the Baseball Hall of Fame, Who Should Be In, and Who Should Pack Their Plaques.” The webinar will be moderated by Jacob Pomrenke, who is on the SABR Black Sox Scandal Research Committee.
In 2024, O’Brien joined the Hornsby Chapter for a Zoom meeting on SABR Day to talk about “Charlie Hustle.” O’Brien, a New York Times bestselling author, award-winning journalist and SABR member, reminded us of Rose’s great baseball accomplishments and his poor choices and gambling addiction that derailed his legacy.
Attendance is limited to members of SABR. Click here to pre-register for this Zoom event.
SABR 53 DFW
Have you registered for SABR 53? It’s not too late! Here’s the link for more information about the annual conference from June 26 to 29 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area: https://sabr.org/convention/2025/registration
Among the 32 research presentations are one by a chapter member and another who shared details about his proposal at the chapter’s SABR Day meeting earlier this year.
In a research presentation, Hornsby Chapter member Eric Bynum will discuss the Waco Navigators, which won three consecutive Class B Texas League titles from 1914 to 1916, including a controversial decision related to the shared title with the Houston Buffaloes in 1914. His presentation will be at 11:30 a.m. Thursday, June 26.
Also, Brenden Gilbreath, a law student at Texas Tech School of Law, will describe his proposal to MLB and the MLB Players Association to award annual benefits to the families of Negro League veterans in a presentation called “Heroes Get Remembered, but Legends Never Die: Properly Recognizing the Contributions of Negro League Veterans.” His presentation will be at 10 a.m. Thursday, June 26. Gilbreath shared an early draft of his proposal at the Hornsby Chapter’s SABR Day meeting on Feb. 1.
Here’s a link to all presentations: https://sabr.org/convention/sabr53-presentations
Cool baseball stories: A minor league ball wrapped in memories
By Don Dingee
Before I started elementary school, my grandmother bought the former one-room schoolhouse next door to my parents’ house in Churchtown, NY. Over several summers, “Eddie the carpenter” added a kitchen, bathroom, pumphouse, furnace room, and a rear porch, and finished out two bedrooms and the front porch. He often had a radio with the Mets on while working, and mentioned a few times that he pitched in the Dodgers’ system.
I would see Eddie Yasinski occasionally in Hudson, where he also worked as a mail carrier and umpire. He was right over my shoulder behind the plate for the last game I played in high school. When I joined SABR and started thinking about a writing project, Eddie came to mind, and what I found was a fascinating story. His biography is in the Minor Leagues Research Committee Spring 2025 Newsletter.
His daughter, Susan, better known as guitarist Susan SurfTone, was of immense help, providing photos and anecdotes. When I shared the published version with her, she said, “Send me your address, I have something for you.” Soon, a baseball in a plastic case arrived by mail, signed by Eddie, manager and former major leaguer Al Brancato, future major leaguers Art Cecarelli and Gabe Gabler, former major leaguers Clyde McNeil and Rudy Rufer, and most of the players on the 1953 Elmira Pioneers, the Dodgers’ A affiliate.
Susan related that after Eddie passed away in 2017, she found five similarly signed baseballs from Eddie’s various minor league stops, with two labeled “Eastern League,” which made me feel a bit better that she wasn’t parting with an heirloom. It’s a precious gift that has joined my small baseball memorabilia collection.
Do you have a cool baseball story that happened to you this season? Want to share it with your friends in the Hornsby Chapter and beyond? This may be perfect for you! Please reach out to Gilbert D. Martinez (gmartinez46@mac.com) with a brief description of your cool baseball story (write in first-person and limit your story to no more than 300 words, please) and accompanying photo if available.
Predictatron Update: Gay leads the way
[Note: Jim Baker shared this Predictatron update with the email list on May 12.]
By Jim Baker
We have a new leader heading into the quarter turn of the season in the person of Mr. Gay. Previously satisfied to lead just the Brian Rogers Division, he has now unseated previous overall leader Mr. Windham as well. All is not lost for the rookie upstart, however, as he has maintained his lead in the Eric Robinson Division in spite of coughing up the big lead.
It was a very positive week for most players as we averaged a 33-point gain. This helped push the number of players at or past the 700-point mark to eight. The biggest week was turned in by Mr. Harrell, who rang up 57 points, enabling him to climb from ninth to fifth in the Robinson Division. This makes him our Player of the Week. You will probably remember that Mr. Harrell won this award no less than seven times in 2024—a truly staggering number that had never before been achieved. Is the first of seven for 2025? Stay tuned.
In the Rogers Division, Mr. Rechtorovic the Younger also had a big showing, missing the Player of the Week award by just one point. This allowed him to progress from tenth place all the way up to fifth. Team Hall also broke the 50-point barrier on the week, jumping from seventh to third in the process.
With one-fourth of the season gone, here’s a look at the least-costly and most-costly picks so far. Note that there are 19 individual-team perfect scores.
Least Costly |
Most Costly |
|||
Player/score |
loss |
Player/score |
loss |
|
Baltimore |
Wancho 79 |
-17 |
Robinson, Seigel, 90L |
-55 |
Boston |
Polk, Larson, Windham 85 |
0 |
Miller 94 |
-9 |
NY Yankees |
Miller 92 |
-1 |
Larson, Dingee 84 |
-9 |
Tampa Bay |
McIntosh 73 |
0 |
Bass 58 |
-15 |
Toronto |
R. Martinez, Gay 81 |
0 |
Siegel 71 |
-10 |
Chi. White Sox |
Bass 47L |
-3 |
R Martinez, Walsh 63L |
-31 |
Cleveland |
G Martinez 95 |
-2 |
McNulty 76 |
-17 |
Detroit |
Dingee, Siegel 91 |
-12 |
Rogers 78 |
-25 |
Kansas City |
Bass 93 |
0 |
Dillon, Baker 80 |
-13 |
Minnesota |
6 tied with 83* |
0 |
Dingee 74 |
-9 |
Houston |
Dingee, Larson, McIntosh 83 |
0 |
G Martinez 93L |
-20 |
LA Angels |
Siegel 66 |
0 |
Polk 51 |
-15 |
Athletics |
Dingee 84 |
-1 |
Polk 67L |
-32 |
Seattle |
Dingee & Polk 89, Siegel 93 |
-2 |
Windham 83 |
-8 |
Texas |
Bass 78 |
-1 |
Crombar 92L |
-26 |
|
|
|
|
|
Atlanta |
G Martinez 86 |
-9 |
J Rechtorovic 96L |
-38 |
Miami |
F Rechtorovic 62 |
0 |
Barnes 69L |
-13 |
NY Mets |
Polk 97 |
-6 |
Harrell 84 |
-19 |
Philadelphia |
G Martinez, Polk 96 |
-1 |
Robinson 86 |
-11 |
Washington |
J Rechtorovic 67 |
0 |
Harrell 57L |
-20 |
Chicago Cubs |
Dillon 90L |
-2 |
Polk 78 |
-13 |
Cincinnati |
Baker, Walsh 77 |
0 |
McNulty, Harrell, Wancho 86 |
-9 |
Milwaukee |
Dillon 79 |
0 |
Siegel 94L |
-30 |
Pittsburgh |
G Martinez 70 |
-15 |
Dingee 82 |
-27 |
St. Louis |
Barnes 84 |
-3 |
Bass 58 |
-29 |
Arizona |
J Rechtorovic 83 |
0 |
Polk 96 |
-13 |
Colorado |
J Rechtorovic 55 |
-27 |
McIntosh, 62L |
-67 |
Los Angeles |
Larson, F Rechtorovic 105L |
-3 |
Pollack, R Martinez 97L |
-17 |
San Diego |
Barnes 92 |
-12 |
Pollack, Rogers, Larson 82 |
-22 |
San Francisco |
Bass 83 |
-12 |
Crombar 76 |
-19 |
*Barnes, Polk, Dillon, Larson, F Rechtorovic, Siegel |
As we pause to comprehend the folly that is the 2025 Colorado Rockies so far, consider that the best score for them in our group is costing its owner 27 points! The team with the lowest most-damaging score is Seattle at -8. If you see an ‘L’ next to a player’s pick in this chart, it means it’s their Lock. A Lock in the Least-Damaging column is a truly impressive feat, given the double jeopardy the Lock brings with it. There are only three such picks on the board so far.
It’s interesting to see the same players on both sides of the ledger, proving once again that predicting the outcome of baseball seasons is nowhere near an exact science. You probably already knew that, though.
Through games of Sunday, May 11, or 25.0 percent of the 2025 season:
|
PLAYER |
Points |
PB |
Last |
^/v |
prev |
move |
1 |
Scott Gay |
726 |
|
701 |
25 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
Don Dingee |
710 |
16 |
699 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
Team Hall |
709 |
17 |
657 |
52 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
Jim Baker |
703 |
23 |
661 |
42 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
John Rechtorovic |
699 |
27 |
643 |
56 |
10 |
5 |
6 |
Mike McNulty |
695 |
31 |
674 |
21 |
4 |
-2 |
7 |
Kevin Barnes |
694 |
32 |
652 |
42 |
8 |
1 |
8 |
Tom Wancho |
693 |
33 |
682 |
11 |
3 |
-5 |
9 |
Brian Rogers |
681 |
45 |
648 |
33 |
9 |
0 |
10 |
Gilbert Martinez |
678 |
48 |
667 |
11 |
5 |
-5 |
11 |
Ryan Pollack |
663 |
63 |
619 |
44 |
12 |
1 |
12 |
Syd Polk |
651 |
75 |
625 |
26 |
11 |
-1 |
|
PLAYER |
Points |
PB |
Last |
^/v |
prev |
move |
1 |
Bob Windham |
723 |
|
704 |
19 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
Frank Rechtorovic |
715 |
8 |
668 |
47 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
Mike Dillon |
707 |
16 |
679 |
28 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
Jerry Miller |
700 |
23 |
693 |
7 |
2 |
-2 |
5 |
Mike Harrell* |
693 |
30 |
636 |
57 |
9 |
4 |
6 |
Jan Larson |
687 |
36 |
644 |
43 |
6 |
0 |
7 |
Gary McIntosh |
685 |
38 |
657 |
28 |
5 |
-2 |
8 |
Ira Siegel |
681 |
42 |
641 |
40 |
7 |
-1 |
9 |
Michael Bass |
670 |
53 |
631 |
39 |
10 |
1 |
9 |
Dan Walsh |
670 |
53 |
628 |
42 |
12 |
3 |
11 |
Raeanne Martinez |
667 |
56 |
621 |
46 |
13 |
2 |
12 |
Eric Robinson |
663 |
60 |
630 |
33 |
11 |
-1 |
13 |
Chris Crombar |
652 |
71 |
637 |
15 |
8 |
-5 |
*Player of the Week |
Awardatron Update
[Note: Ryan Pollack shared the following on the group email list on April 21, nearly a month into the season.]
By Ryan Pollack
Greetings & salutations, all! Your first Awardatron update is coming a tad early, as I will be busy next week. The season’s young, but let’s check in on the awards favorites so far.
AL MVP
Frontrunners: Judge, Witt Jr., Henderson
Henderson has started slowly, with a batting line of just .228/..267/.439 (103 wRC+ — meaning his park-adjusted offense is 3% better than league average). And his plate discipline is all messed up, with just a 5% walk rate against a sky-high 33% K rate.
As Orioles fans, we’re leaning on two positive facts to start the year. One, he’s hitting the ball extremely hard (64.9% Hard-hit rate per Statcast). Two, he missed a month of spring training with an intercostal strain and so may just be one of those guys who needs the reps. The projection systems remain confident in him, as do us Baltimore fans (dear lord knows we need something to hope for after this miserable start to the year).
NL MVP
Frontrunners: Tatis Jr., Ohtani, Betts
Fernando Tatis Jr. is fulfilling the promise he made when the Padres signed him to that mammoth extension several years ago. He has been consistently excellent since then, but teammates like Machado and Soto have overshadowed him, and his scandal-fueled couple of years didn’t help. Now, however, he’s off to a stunning .358/.436/.631 start (209 wRC+, meaning his park-adjusted offense is 109% better than league average) with 8 HR and 7 SB. Oh and he’s playing above-average defense in the outfield.
The most impressive thing is that he’s struck out a minuscule 12.8% of the time — significantly better than the league-average strikeout rate of 22.5%. He’s also walking the same amount, and to walk as much as you strike out is pretty much Juan Soto / Kyle Tucker territory. It seems there is a new National League right fielder on this list!
His career high in WAR is 6.8, set in 2021; he already has 1.9 this year. Sky’s the limit.
AL Cy Young
Frontrunners: Crochet, Skubal, Ragans
Crochet has looked every bit like the ace Boston thought they were getting when they not only traded for him, but signed him to a crazy extension. His 1.13 ERA is being held up by an unsustainably low home run rate and an unsustainably high baserunner strand rate, but his expected stats and peripherals point to an ERA in the high 2’s or low 3’s, not some ghastly number. Although Crochet is emphasizing his sinker more than 2024 and has added break to his cutter, his calling card remains his fastball. Batters are slugging .175 against it despite seeing it almost half the time.
NL Cy Young
Frontrunners: Skenes, Wheeler, Webb
Skenes looks even better to start his first full season. Although his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is also down (from 6.2% to 3.4%, and so is his hard-hit rate (from 36.3% to 32.5%). Right now he’s basically Greg Maddux (career 4.9% walk rate) except, you know, he throws 98 MPH and has a 93 MPH splitter.
AL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunners: Kristian Campbell, Jacob Wilson, Jack Leiter
Pretty much no one was saying anything about Jacob Wilson (shortstop for the Athletics) to start the year. At least, not that I heard of. Well — that’s changed now. He sports a park-adjusted offensive line that’s 52% better than major league average, and although I’m honestly not sure how park adjustments in Sacramento are being done this year, that’s still very good. Breaking it down, he has a super weird batting line of .354/.354/.500 with 2 HR and 1 SB. Fascinatingly, he has zero walks and has struck out only 3.4% of the time. He’s not hitting the ball hard (2.5% Barrel rate), so it seems he’s shaping up to be another Luis Arraez type, who sprays singles all around the field because he’s adept at squaring up the baseball.
But crucially, unlike Arraez, Wilson is a good defender at a premium position. According to Statcast, he’s in the 82nd percentile for range and 77th at arm strength. Because of this, if he can maintain even a league-average batting line, he can be really valuable.
NL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunners: Dylan Crews, Thomas Saggese, Zac Veen
The NL ROY crowd is pretty thin. But so far, Thomas Saggese has fired up the Cardinals with a .400/.389/.600 batting line. That .422 wOBA is obviously not sustainable but even his .342 xWOBA would be very good for a rookie. And combined with above-average defense up the middle (he’s a second baseman / shortstop), you have the makings of a potential breakout in St. Louis.
AL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: Hinch (Tigers), Bochy (Rangers), Schneider (Blue Jays)
The Tigers are 13-9 with a +24 run differential to start the year, 7th best in MLB. Given how they ended last year, I think many expected them to do better this year, but the fact they’re out in front counts as a mild surprise. Skubal hasn’t really looked like Skubal yet, but he’s still excellent, and Spencer Torkelson is fulfilling his prospect potential with a park-adjusted batting line 93% better than league-average. Their playoff odds have increased 27 points, most in the big leagues so far, from 37% to 64%. Those are the kinds of positive surprises that get managers awards.
NL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: Counsell (Cubs), Melvin (Giants), Shildt (Padres)
The Cubs were something of a disappointment last year. Well — not so much this year. Their playoff odds have increased 18 points, from a right-on-the-bubble 56% to a close-to-a-sure-thing 74%. Kyle Tucker has been astounding to start the year with a park-adjusted batting line 76% better than league average — pretty much right where he landed last year. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been not-terrible at the plate, which when combined with his superlative defense in CF and baserunning, has given him 1.2 WAR already. Although Justin Steele is out for the year, Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon have helped keep the rotation afloat. Boyd and Imanaga are getting a little lucky, but the games they’ve helped win are in the books, so it doesn’t matter as much.
Next meeting
In June, we’ll have a breakfast/brunch meeting at 9:30 a.m. Saturday, June 14, at Rudy’s Bar-B-Cue on Capital of Texas Highway in Southwest Austin. Look for a call for RSVPs early next month.
In July, we’re headed back to watch the San Antonio Missions (Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres) host the Amarillo Sod Poodles (Double-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks) at 7 p.m. Saturday, July 19. More details to come in early July.
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