Rogers Hornsby Chapter

With the dog days of summer behind us and playoff chances up in the air, the Hornsby Chapter will gather for lunch at 1 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 14, at Hurricane Grill & Wings (2701 Parker Dr., Round Rock).

Please RSVP to Gilbert (gmartinez46@mac.com) by Friday, Sept. 13, so we know how many to expect.

The potential topics include how the playoff races are shaping up, which teams will find themselves in or out of the wildcard race, and our Predictatron ballots and Awardatron choices.

Also, have you had an interesting outing to a baseball game in August and want to share it with the chapter? Consider contributing your short story for consideration for the September Newsletter. Write in first-person, limit your story to no more than 300 words, please, and add an accompanying photo if available. Send your contribution to Gilbert; the deadline is Friday, Sept. 12.

For the August meeting, the Hornsby Chapter shifts to Zoom to welcome a book author who’ll tell us about an American baseball pitcher who chased his baseball dream to Japan before debuting for the Texas Rangers.

Join us at 1 p.m. (Central Time) Saturday, Aug. 10, when award-winning sports writer, editor and multimedia journalist Aaron Fischman talks about his book, “A Baseball Gaijin: Chasing a Dream to Japan and Back.”

Published in June 2024 by Sports Publishing, Fischman’s first book tells the story of Tony Barnette, an Arizona State pitcher drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2006. After working his way up the D-backs’ farm system, he took a lucrative offer to pitch for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Later, he returned to the States, pitching for the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs (2016-19).

Check out Fischman’s website to find out more about the author.

To register for the Zoom meeting, please go to this link: https://txstate.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZcsduqgqT8sEtUHOS5NVQEG4h87PhnraBlJ

June 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

The June chapter meeting at Ryan Pollack and Lauren Cohen’s house featured a delicious sandwich platter with sides, desserts, live baseball broadcasts and a nifty Negro Leagues baseball quiz.

A dozen chapter members and guests talked about the strong start by the Yankees and Phillies and wondered if the Rangers and Astros have enough time to overcome slow starts and a string of injuries to each club’s respective starting rotations.

We also noted the recognition of Josh Gibson’s lifetime batting average (.372) that now sits atop baseball’s record book as MLB has fully integrated Negro Leagues records with MLB statistics.

The quiz, inspired by a visit to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum by Raeanne and Gilbert Martinez and Ryan in April, sparked an epic clash of trivia titans, Jerry Miller and Jim Baker. After the regulation 20 questions (written by Ryan, Raeanne and Gilbert), Jerry and Jim found themselves in a tie, 11 points each.

This triggered a tiebreaker in which each combatant was tasked by Ryan to name a player enshrined as a statue on the playing field at the heart of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. First contestant to incorrectly name a player would lose the tiebreaker, Ryan declared.

Josh Gibson, Jerry said for his first guess (correct).

Satchel Paige, Jim countered (correct).

Cool Papa Bell, Jerry said (correct).

Bullet Joe Rogan, Jim offered (incorrect, but under his breath, Jim said Rogan ought to be immortalized as a statue!).

For a list of all players and executives on the Field of Legends, check out this entry on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negro_Leagues_Baseball_Museum

And with that, Jerry outlasted Jim in a battle for the ages. Try your hand at Ryan’s quiz below. The answers follow the questions. (Note: Ryan deviated slightly for the tiebreaker depicted below.)

Many thanks to Ryan and Lauren for sharing their home with us for this month’s meeting!

This was the 211th consecutive month with a monthly meeting, a streak that dates to December 2006.

Very Difficult Trivia

Chapter member Tom Thayer shared on the chapter email list a novel question that he dubbed “very difficult trivia.” Tom said he would be very impressed if anyone knew the answer without looking it up.

“This position player was a rookie when he was 20 years old,” Tom wrote. “He played until he was 34. In his age 32 season, he set a new personal best in home runs. Not only was it a career high, but it was more than double the amount of home runs he had hit in his ENTIRE career up until that point.

“I am not aware of any position player with a similar profile – even approaching doubling his career home runs in a single season that late in his career. I know of another player who mid-career almost equaled his career home runs in a single season. And it is possible that there have been pitchers who have done this (i.e. had 1 career home run and then had a season with 2 late in their career).

“Who is this player? Tom asked, challenging chapter members.

After about 10 hours of nothing but crickets on the email list, Tom took pity on his fellow chapter members and offered additional hints.

“He was born outside of the U.S., though you can’t tell from his name. The high school from which he matriculated in New Hampshire is now a college. He missed part of one season due to a war effort. His nickname is the same as a Tim Conway character. He was the personal catcher of one of the greatest pitchers of all time. He organized one of the early ballplayer tours of Japan. He was a proponent of women’s baseball, arranging a women’s baseball tour of Japan and Korea. He later managed the Rockford Peaches (no word on his stance on crying in baseball).”

Various incorrect guesses were made such as Hack Wilson, while some chapter members investigated possible answers that didn’t fit the criteria upon further research.

The Tim Conway character hint prompted chapter member Mike McNulty to guess “[s]ome ballplayer nicknamed ‘Dorf.’”

Tom ruled that a correct answer (technically) and filled in the rest.

“The answer is Eddie “Dorf” Ainsmith,” Tom wrote. “I imagine most have never heard of him since he played over a century ago.

“He was born in Russia (nee Anshmedt) and grew up in Massachusetts. He graduated from Colby Academy (now Colby College) before beginning his pro career at the age of 17. For most of his career, he was a consistently bad hitter with an OPS+ around 60. He was Walter Johnson’s personal catcher – he caught more of Johnson’s innings (1271) than any other catcher.

“He served stateside in the WWI war effort in 1918, but that year was when his hitting started to turn around. He posted an 80 OPS+ that year and then 115 in 1919. However, still not much power as he only had 6 career HRs through 1920. He posted an 82 OPS+ in 1921 with 0 HRs. Then, in 1922 with the Cardinals (managed by Branch Rickey) he surged to 13 HRs, which was top 10 in the league. The Cardinals played in a hitting-friendly stadium, but not extremely so. He was 3rd on the team in WAR and out-homered slugging first baseman Jack Fournier. He only hit 3 more HRs the rest of his career.

“The women’s baseball tour of Asia was a failure with the lady ballplayers getting stranded – one of them was washed overboard when her family was eventually able to pay for her return.

“The closest analogue to Ainsmith in terms of power surges would be Ed Williamson. He had 8 career HRs until he was 26 yo (his 7th season) when he jacked 27 HRs for the Cubs, aided by a short RF. Ken Williams had 40 career HRs when he hit 39 in 1922. He was 32 yo at the time, but it was only his 7th season in baseball, with two of them just cups of coffee.

“Among more recent players, Bert Campaneris had 24 career HRs when he hit 22 HRs in his 7th season when he was 28 yo. Pitcher Mike Hampton had no career HRs when he joined the Rockies at age 28 – he hit 7 HRs in his first season with them.”

Tom shared with me that he has long been aware of Ainsmith because his entry is near the front of Baseball Encyclopedia. More recently, Tom said he dug deeper into Ainsmith’s career while working on a catcher database.

Thanks, Tom, for the challenging trivia question and thorough follow-up!

Research Spotlight

For the past five years, Jim Baker has dedicated himself to examining the best single-game offensive performances in baseball history using fantasy baseball stats. Tallying total bases, runs, RBI, walks, stolen bases (and hit-by-pitch), Jim has identified dozens of individual game performances that top his Big Game List. He has reviewed all four-home-run games and most three-home-run games. Now, he’s nearly done compiling his list.

Here’s the top eleven performances.

“I have about 90 three-homer games to check,” Jim shared with me. “I am 100 percent certain none of them will impact the Top 10! (Very conveniently, all of the Top 10 games are 30 or more points.)”

“I just found two games where Sammy Sosa had three homers and was then taken out for his final plate appearance,” Jim wrote later. “I wonder why that happened. Surely everyone knows the record is four in a game and that less than two dozen guys have done it….”

The most recent occurrence of a big game to add to Jim’s list was Adolis Garcia with the Texas Rangers on April 22, 2023. His 29-point game ties for fifth on the list, just missing the top eleven performances.

Next meeting: San Antonio Missions game on July 14

After last year’s successful outing to a San Antonio Missions game in September, the chapter is scheduling another outing to Nelson Wolff Municipal Stadium at 1 p.m. Sunday, July 14. The Double-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, the Missions will host the Amarillo Sod Poodles, affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks. I have purchased two tickets in Section 200, Row V, Seats 11 and 12, which are shaded seats.

If you’d like to join us, please use the following link to purchase your own tickets: https://mlb.tickets.com/?orgId=53849&agency=MILB_MPV&eventId=19913&tfl=#/event/E19913/seatmap/?selectBuyers=false&minPrice=8&maxPrice=30&quantity=2&sort=price_desc&ada=false&seatSelection=true&onlyCoupon=true&onlyVoucher=false

Hope to see you at the ballpark next month!

Looking ahead, we’re hoping to have a Zoom meeting in August. We’re working on those details and will share them next month.

Negro Leagues Baseball Quiz

Ryan, Gilbert and Raeanne visited the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum on April 19th. This quiz is inspired by their visit. Also: MLB recently integrated Negro League statistics into the MLB historical record. Was this decision entirely because of the visit of our three intrepid SABR members? Who can prove that it wasn’t? 

1. The Kansas City Monarchs brought what baseball innovation to the Negro Leagues in 1930?
2. This 19-year MLB pitcher, who led the league with a 1.085 WHIP in 1973 and is most known for his 8 seasons with the Red Sox in which he went 122-81 with a 3.36 ERA, is the son of a Negro Leagues pitcher.
3. In February 1920, owners met in this city to form the Negro National League.
4. This Texan (born in 1879 in Calvert, 90 minutes northeast of Austin) was nicknamed “The Father of Negro League Baseball” for his involvement in founding and administering the Negro National League.
5. This MLB great used a portion of his HOF induction speech in 1966 to advocate for the HOF election of Negro Leaguers.
6. This Negro League player and MLB scout / coach was the subject of Joe Posnanski’s 2007 book The Soul of Baseball. The player was inducted into the Hall of Fame as an executive 16 years after his death.
7. In what city did the Homestead Grays play the majority of their home games?
8. What did Satchel Paige nickname his favorite pitch?
9. Who was the owner of the Newark Eagles when they won the Negro Leagues World Series in 1946? 
10. This Hall of Fame third baseman, nicknamed “Hooks” and “Squat”, maintained a .319 batting average across 11 Negro League seasons. In 1947 he turned down an invitation from Bill Veeck to play in the Cleveland Indians organization. 
11. Which Negro League player earned the nickname “Pork Chops” because that was all he ate (along with french fries) while on the road?
12. According to his Hall of Fame plaque, Satchel Paige was said to have struck out how many major leaguers in an exhibition game?
13. Meiji Jingu Stadium, now home of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and subject to demolition in the next few years, is one of the few still-operating ballparks in which Babe Ruth played and hit a home run. Which Negro Leagues star was the first to hit a home run there in 1927, a year after the stadium opened?
14. Writing for the Daily Worker, New York City’s Communist Party newspaper, which columnist condemned racial discrimination in baseball in the 1930s and ‘40s, pushing Major League Baseball to integrate?
15. In 1948, this Hall of Famer, best known as a five-tool shortstop, played a handful of games at third base for the Memphis Red Sox while his son played short instead.
16. Three women played in the Negro Leagues, but this one was the only one who pitched. She said she learned her curveball from Satchel Paige. 
17. This first baseman hit .345 and slugged .589 during his long career that was spent entirely with one team. He played in a record 11 East-West All Star Games and was part of the second class of Negro League players to be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1972.
18. This Hall of Fame first baseman with an equine sobriquet, along with the answers to #10 and #15 above, formed the so-called ”‘Million Dollar Infield” on the Newark Eagles in the late 1930s.
19. Which baseball-loving rocker donated hundreds of baseballs signed by Negro League players to the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, where they are on display?
20. Considered one of the most versatile players in baseball history, this Negro Leaguer played year-round in the U.S. and abroad. In the Mexican league in 1938, he threw what was likely the first no-hitter in the history of the league, hit over .300, and led the league in strikeouts.

Answers

1. Night games
2. Luis Tiant. LT Sr pitched for the New York Cubans, among other teams
3. Kansas City
4. Rube Foster
5. Ted Williams
6. Buck O’Neil
7. Pittsburgh
8. Bee Ball
9. Effa Manley
10. Ray Dandridge
11. Hank Aaron
12. 21
13. Biz Mackey
14. Lester Rodney
15. Willie Wells
16. Mamie “Peanut” Johnson
17. Buck Leonard 
18. George “Mule” Suttles
19. Geddy Lee
20. Martín Dihigo

Tiebreakers:

• The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum is located at which KC historical district?
  • 18th & Vine
• What museum sits directly across from, and shares the same building with, the NLBM?
  • American Jazz Museum
• The NLBM concludes with a replica baseball field on which stand players and other key figures from NLBM history. Even an umpire. Whoever can name the most people on the field without getting one wrong – e.g. you get one wrong and you’re out — wins!
  
  You have 3 minutes to write down your answers, and then you have to read from your list!
  • Catcher: Josh Gibson
  • 1B: Buck Leonard
  • 2B: Pop Lloyd
  • SS: Judy Johnson
  • 3B: Ray Dandridge
  • OF: Cool Papa Bell, Oscar Charleston, Leon Day
  • Pitcher: Satchel Paige
  • Batter: Martin Dihigo
  • Rube Foster
  • Buck O’Neil
  • Ump: Bob Motley

The next monthly meeting will be at 1 p.m. Saturday, June 1, at the home of Ryan Pollack in North Austin. He’ll provide sandwich platters, while guests are invited to bring side dishes, desserts and beverages to share. Please RSVP to Ryan directly (ryan9379@gmail.com) by Thursday, May 30, with what you plan to bring, and he’ll share his home address.

May 2024 Newsletter

By Gilbert D. Martinez

A thrilling come-from-behind victory for the Round Rock Express, a delicious pregame barbecue dinner and a mesmerizing post-game Star Wars-themed drone show demonstrated that the force was very much with us at the May chapter meeting on Saturday.

A small group of six chapter members and guests watched the Express fall behind early against the Las Vegas Aviators, but four runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings pushed the home team to a 4-3 victory.

A smaller group of four enjoyed dinner at the Salt Lick prior to the game.

For the first time, some in the group saw the new rules related to the automatic ball-strike system. Express season ticket holder Andy York filled us in. For Friday through Sunday games, the home plate umpire calls balls and strikes as usual, but the batter, pitcher or catcher may challenge a call by patting the top of their head. The umpire will then announce to the crowd that the call is being challenged, and the animation of the pitch will be displayed on the big screen. We saw several instances of a challenge, with calls going in favor of the umpire’s call and against.

Evidence of Star Wars weekend was abundant at the stadium. Special guests wearing Star Wars costumes were scattered throughout Dell Diamond, and Jedi training was provided for young fans. Star Wars-themed shirts and toy light sabers were sold in the gift shop, and special food offerings were available at concessions such as Vader Taters and Jar Jar Links.

The group also had a chance to chat briefly with Express General Manager Tim Jackson, who was making his way around the stands visiting with fans.

Results from Chapter Bylaws Voting

From May 1 to 10, current chapter members were invited to evaluate proposed chapter bylaws and vote for or against them online. Thirty-two of the 81 current chapter members successfully cast votes: 30 members voted for the bylaws, and 2 voted against.

With the adoption of these bylaws, the Rogers Hornsby Chapter further adheres to SABR HQ’s guidelines.

These bylaws go into effect immediately.

Many thanks to Ryan Pollack for his assistance in setting up the Google form for the bylaws election and compiling the list of current members. And many thanks to the chapter members who participated in this vote (you know who you are!).

Predictatron 2024 Update: Gay leads the way!

Sunday, May 5, 2024, edition

By Jim Baker

We have a new leader in our contest in the person of Mr. Gay. Being the first player to cross over the 600-point threshold has allowed him to push past previous leader overall Mr. Rogers while also taking charge of the Raeanne Martinez Division lead.

Mr. Larson has found himself atop the Brian Rogers Division when that same Mr. Rogers lost 10 points on the week and fell back to second place. Mssrs. McIntosh and McNulty are not far behind, being currently tied for third place just four points off the chase. The Martinez Division lead previously belonged to Mr. Miller, but a downturn of fortune has seen him drop to third, 19 points off the pace. Meanwhile, Mr. Siegel maintains his hold on second place in that division.

For the second time in a row, Mr. Harrell is our Player of the Week. Last week, he scored 89 points to pace the field and this time around he led the contest with 57. This allowed him to jump from tenth to seventh in the Martinez Division. That’s a 35 percent increase in points in a two-week period for the rookie. Such is life in the early going of Predictatron!

The largest standings jump was experienced by Mr. Baker, who went up four spots from ninth to fifth in the Rogers Division, facilitated by a second-best showing of 43 points. On the other end of the spectrum, Mr. Wancho and Mr. Martinez both fell five places each and are now situated in seventh and last respectively.

According to a recent study, 84 percent of the participants in this contest consider themselves to be baseball fans. As such, we spend quite a bit of our time angry about our game. Myopic umpires, vexing rule changes, callous owners, all-too-often-injured players, showoffs and show boaters, incompetent announcers—all those and more are often the target of our anger and frustration. In the context of this contest, our anger can be directed at only one place: teams that don’t comply with our expectations. As we have long since learned, over- and underachievement is the bane of the Predictatroner on the make.

With that in mind, here are the teams that are hurting us the most:

35 – Houston: This is the biggest shocker of 2024 so far, isn’t it? The Astros rose to competency in 2015 after riding the train to Tank Town and loading up on talent, so we’ve grown accustomed to them playing at a certain level of decency. They’re clearly not going to get up to that level this year, but they could get back to .500, an achievement that would make us all happy, especially the three players who Locked them.
32 – Miami: The Marlins have been bad before (8-23 in .500 seasons coming into 2024), but never this bad. Their .519 showing last year gave us the expectation of high-end mediocrity at the very least, so this 1962 Mets-level winning percentage is putting a real hurt on us.
26 Chicago (A): It’s gotten better. Since jumping off a cliff to start the season at 3-22, they’ve gone 5-5. This sort of play will keep them out of the bad pages of the history books and off of lists like this one—provided they can maintain the recent showing and not the previous way of doing things.
24 – Cleveland: Relax, Guardians, it’s the American League Central, for pete’s sake. You don’t need 105 wins to take the title in this division.
23 Colorado: The Rockies have sunk to the White Sox level, which is an especially huge problem for the six players in our midst who named them as their National League Lock. Make no mistake: we all thought they’d be terrible—just not 1935 Boston Braves terrible.
22 Philadelphia: Given that every last one of us said they’d make the playoffs and the field average is 89 wins, it’s not like the Phillies snuck up on us. However, they’ve been playing like the best team in baseball of late (in spite of dragging around the carcass of Nick Castellanos and losing Trea Turner to injury), and it’s hurting us. Even the most-ambitious Phillies pick—Mr. Crombar at 94 wins—is costing 17 points at the moment.

On a happier note, the Braves unpleasant 1-5 week brought them right in line with where we all hoped they would be in 2024, and they now rank as one of our best collective picks!

Through games of Sunday, May 5, or 21.6 percent of the 2024 season:

Awardatron Update

(Shared via email to the chapter Google Group list on May 5)

By Ryan Pollack

Greetings and salutations, award predictors! It’s a little over a month into the season. Time to take a pulse on where the nascent award races stand, especially as compared to our pre-reason picks.

AL MVP

Prediction favorites: Soto, Julio Rodríguez, Rutschman

Award favorites: Soto, Henderson, Witt Jr.

Much to my personal dismay, Juan Soto has been in the Bronx everything he was supposed to be but didn’t accomplish fully to everyone’s expectations in San Diego. Steamer (a well-regarded projection system) has him finishing the season with 37 HR, an OBP of .423, and slightly below average defense (his best since 2021) for 8 WAR. I cannot believe this is only his age-25 season and his walk year. The man is about to get $$$paid$$$. 

That projected 8 WAR figure is nearly 1 WAR clear of the next closest projection – Gunnar “In play, Gunn(s)” Henderson. Last year’s AL ROY has taken his game to another level, smacking 10 HR already alongside excellent defense at shortstop to power the Orioles’ playoff hopes. Steamer projects him for a full season of 35 HR and a decent .339 OBP that contribute to 7 WAR. Pay the man already, Mike Elias!!! (And Adley too, while you’re at it. And Corbin. And Grayson. And Jordan. etc.)

Just behind him in the AL WAR projections is Bobby Witt Jr., who of course got his big payday during the offseason. Witt Jr. is helping his Royals surpass everyone’s pre-season expectations. It’s a long, long season but the early signs look very good. Steamer projects him for 27 HR, the same OBP as Henderson, and just slightly worse defense for 6.6 WAR.

Others of note: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge.

NL MVP

Prediction favorites: Betts, Acuña Jr., Freeman/Turner/Harper

Award favorites: Betts, Acuña Jr., Tatis Jr.

Mookie Betts is the destroyer of worlds, especially a world where he plays competent shortstop and where Ronald Acuña, Jr. is off to a slow start. Betts’ projected 8.4 WAR is clear of Acuña Jr.’s 6.5 by a significant margin. The latter’s slow start is partially to blame; so far Acuña Jr.’s projections are down to 27 HR. That would be a significant disappointment after last year’s total of 41. 

Others of note: Ohtani (yes, even without the pitching), William Contreras (who would have a narrative edge if the somewhat-underdog Brewers made the playoffs), Will Smith (of the Dodgers, although I would be inclined to vote for the reliever Will Smith, having witnessed him give up a grand slam to Adley Rutschman in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago).

AL Cy Young

Prediction favorites: Burnes, Kirby, Gausman

Award favorites: Skubal, Luis Castillo, Gilbert

Tarik Skubal has more or less maintained his 2023 breakout season so far, giving Tigers fans something to dream about. The “one stat” I judge pitchers by is strikeout rate minus walk rate (K-BB%) and Skubal’s is 4th among AL starters at 25.4%. If you need more stats, his hard-hit rate (% of batted balls hit 95 MPH or higher) is 2nd among AL starters at 28.9%.  

That Mariners rotation … whew. Castillo is 6th among AL starters in K-BB% and Gilbert is 12th. Kirby, whom many of you voted for, is 7th. Bryce Miller 14th. Yowza. (Thankfully for my Orioles and for your votes, Corbin Burnes is not far behind at 15th.)

NL Cy Young

Prediction favorites: Strider, Gallen, Yamamoto

Award favorites: Wheeler, Glasnow, Webb

Yeah, so … remember that you get to change 1 prediction at the All Star Break 🙂 I’m going to guess that the 11 of you (out of 17) who predicted Strider would win this award will change your prediction. Juuuuuust … have a feeling. 

What more can I say about Wheeler that I haven’t already said in this space? Dude’s underrated, which I think tends to happen with so many high finishes in Cy Young voting but no wins. He is a big part of the reason why the Phillies starters lead baseball in fWAR. 

Other names to watch: Cease, Gray, Imanaga

AL Rookie of the Year

Prediction favorites: Holliday, Carter, Langford

Award favorites: Colton Cowser, Mason Miller, Wilyer Abreu

Welllllll Jackson Holliday’s MLB debut definitely didn’t go as planned.  A 50% strikeout rate with hardly any walks is struggling in a way that guys like Gunnar and Adley never did. The kid will likely be fine; he’s still 20. And technically he could come back up in, say, mid or late May, set the league on fire, and still win the award. Gunnar was not great until June of last year and still won the award. But Jackson will have a large hill to climb. Perhaps the O’s will hold him back until next year and give him another, better shot at it. 

Wyatt Langford has also looked overmatched. He’s hitting .224/.295/.293. Baseball is hard. But his teammate Carter is hanging in there with a decent .328 OBP and great .472 SLG. 

As an O’s fan, I’m fully on board the Colton Cowser ROY train. Like many sensations, he’s playing above his head with a .378 BABIP (.290-.300 is more normal) and a 31.6% HR/FB rate (10% is the MLB norm, although power hitters can exceed that regularly). His 35.8% strikeout rate is concerning, although his 9.5% walk rate is good. (He literally just walked as I’m typing this.) He will have to adjust. But his .377 xWOBA is still very good. He is hitting the ball hard and on a line and he’s just 24.  (As I’m typing this, a couple hours later, Cowser has just doubled.)

Mason Miller … well, these days I’d love to trade Craig Kimbrel for him straight up. If Oakland wants, they can demand a king’s ransom for this kid at the trade deadline. He’s struck out 53.7% of the batters he’s faced. Over half!! It’s not yet a full season, but if it held, it would be the highest strikeout rate in a full season in a decade — Aroldis Chapman struck out 52.5% of the batters he faced in 2014. (Kimbrel himself had a nice 50.2% strikeout rate in 2012 — I’d love it if he rediscovered that particular form.)

Other names to watch: Wenceel Perez, David Schneider, Austin Wells

NL Rookie of the Year

Prediction favorites: Yamamoto, Chourio, Jung Hoo Lee

Award favorites: Imanaga, Yamamoto, Andy Pages

Here’s another area where your favorites line up with who’s on pace to win. Yamamoto has been excellent, maybe outshined by only his countryman Imanaga in Chicago.  It’s going to be tight between these two. 

Other names to watch: Jared Jones, Mitchell Parker, Joey Ortiz

AL Manager of the Year

Prediction favorites: Servais (Mariners), Hyde (Orioles), Quatraro (Royals)

Award favorites: Vogt (Guardians), Quatraro, Servais

The Guardians have so far exceeded all expectations under first-year manager Stephen Vogt. According to projections I aggregate from multiple sources every morning, they’ve raised their playoff chances about 32 percentage points, from “not going to happen” to “right on the bubble” in the first month. Given that MOY awards typically are “manager of the team that exceeds expectations the most”, I feel confident in saying he’s an early favorite.

Matt Quatraro’s Royals are right behind. Their playoff chances are still in the “not going to happen” range, but like Cleveland they’ve been one of the largest positive surprises in the AL. I saw two Orioles-Royals games in mid-April. Both were tense affairs, far more stressful than I’d expected given how the Royals did in 2023. (But damn, could we just NOT hit Alec Marsh. Also, if Salvador Perez doesn’t get elected into the HOF, I’m convinced KC fans will travel en masse to Cooperstown and storm the Museum in a protest/riot. They loooooooooove him there.)

Scott Servais’ Mariners are licking their lips. Houston’s failure to launch has opened up the AL West. The Rangers have been disappointing, but the Mariners have responded by playing decent baseball. I currently have them and the Rangers in the playoffs, with Houston on the outside looking in. Regardless of what happens, the AL West may be a tense affair this year. 

Others to watch: Cora (Red Sox), Boone (Yankees)

NL Manager of the Year

Prediction favorites: Counsell (Cubs), Shildt (Padres), Bell (Reds) / Roberts (Dodgers)

Award favorites: Murphy (Brewers), Counsell (Cubs), Shildt

The Cubs have raised their playoff chances the most in the NL, but many expected them to be good. Fewer people expected the Brewers to be good, which is why I think Pat Murphy is the frontrunner for this award. Freddy Peralta has been excellent and William Contreras is playing like an MVP candidate — although to be fair he did sneakily put up almost 6 WAR last year at age 25. So maybe we should’ve seen this coming. Pat will get the credit if the Brewers make the postseason. 

Others to watch: Thomson (Phillies) 

Next Meeting: Potluck at Ryan Pollack’s House!

The next monthly meeting will be at 1 p.m. Saturday, June 1, at the home of Ryan Pollack in North Austin. He’ll provide sandwich platters, while guests are invited to bring side dishes, desserts and beverages to share. Please RSVP to Ryan directly (ryan9379@gmail.com) by Thursday, May 30, with what you plan to bring, and he’ll share his home address.