June Meeting : Meat and Baseball

The June meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter is set for Saturday, June 16.  We will be gathering for pre-game barbeque at the Salt Lick restaurant at 5:30 p.m. followed by the game between the home standing Round Rock Express and the visting Oklahoma City Redhawks.   Game time is 7:05 p.m.

Please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com by noon on Saturday June 9 (one week in advance of the game) and indicate (1) how many in your party will be partaking in the pre-game meal (for the purposes of making a reservation) and (2) how many game tickets you will require.  Tickets are $14 plus a $1 service fee.

 

BABIP

At the May 2012 Hornsby Chapter meeting, the subject of BABIP came up and that led to a spirited discussion.  Dan Walsh then took it upon himself to do some research on the subject.  The article below is a consolidation of the emails that Dan sent to the group with his findings.

Jan Larson

PART I

Last night, the conversation went something like this: Monte: “So, you’re telling me that the top 5% pitchers have the same BABIP as the bottom 5% pitchers?”  Jim responded: “Yes”.  Monte: “I don’t believe it.”

Using the 2011 season, I looked at the numbers for all major league pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (96 pitchers), and based the top 5% and bottom 5% solely on ERA.  Here they are, with BABIP and ERA. The MLB averages in 2011 were: BABIP = .295    ERA= 3.94

Top 5%                   BABIP             ERA

Clayton Kershaw          .274              2.28

Roy Halladay             .305              2.35

Justin Verlander         .240              2.37

Cliff Lee                .293              2.40

Jered Weaver             .252              2.41

Bottom 5%

Brad Penny               .312              5.30

Fausto Carmona           .296              5.25

Brian Duensing           .334              5.23

A.J. Burnett             .296              5.15

Bronson Arroyo           .281              5.07

A quick look at the numbers appears to favor Monte. (Monte, you can stop reading at this point). However, the stats raise some interesting questions: How does Halladay record the 2nd lowest ERA with a BABIP above the league average? And Arroyo the 5th highest ERA with a below-average BABIP.
As I recall, Monte and Ira were sure that the quality of pitching does affect whether or not a batter gets a hit.  I certainly agree with them on this point.  All pitchers are not created equal, and their pitching skills can impact the placement of a batted ball.  Jim was equally certain that all pitchers have an identical BABIP.  Well, that just can’t be…perhaps, all pitchers have a historical norm; however, they didn’t all have a BABIP of .295 last year, or in any other year.  Regardless, that’s missing the point of what Jim was saying (not trying to put words in your mount here, Jim).  BABIP is a pitcher’s average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs.  It measures the hit rate after a ball is put in play.  After the ball is in the field of play, whether or not it falls for a hit is dependent on the defense and random chance (i.e., luck).  Even when Mariano Rivera saws a bat in two, thae batted ball still has a chance to be a hit.  If A-Rod, Jeter or Cano can’t make a play, then it isn’t Rivera’s fault.  Thus, Rivera has little ability to prevent a hit once the ball is in play.  That’s how I understand BABIP as it applies to pitchers.

How about Halladay and Arroyo? If you accept the premise that the pitcher does not have complete control over his hit rate, and you want do know how effective a pitcher is; then, you need to look at those things that the pitcher does control – specifically, walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. Among our 96 pitchers, Halladay had the 3rd lowest BB/9, 3rd lowest HR/9, and was 17th in K/9. Whereas Arroyo, was 17th in BB/9, 89th in SO/9, and #96! in HR/9. Conicidenatlly, Cincy had the lowest team BABIP in the NL last year; perhaps Arroyo relies on his defense to prevent runs because his pitching skills certainly are not doing are not doing the job.

Thanks to Jan for sending all the BABIP links.  For the original research go to Baseball Prospectus.  Attached is a spreadsheet file with all Pitchers and team data for 2011.   Enjoy!

PART II

Here’s the comparisons – the attached spreadsheet shows those 10 pitchers for the last 5 years, with their career BABIP.  Is there any consistency?  A couple of these guys show some consistency from year-to-year.  Weaver is interesting – BABIP has decreased each of the past 4 years.  However, overall this group of pitchers is up and down each year – which is one of the points that Voros McCracken noted in his original research.  You can’t predict BABIP based on the pitcher’s previous performance in the stat  – it doesn’t correlate from year to year.  McCracken also noted that the majority of pitchers who have pitched significant innings have career rates between .280 and .290.  That pretty much holds true for this group, as shown in their career BABIP. Maybe that’s what Jim was  getting at (putting words in his mouth agin..).   Based on his career BABIP, one would expect Verlander to eventually settle down into a 28-29% hit rate, rather than the ridiculous 24% rate – or maybe not – let’s see what it looks like at the end of this season.

 

May Meeting Wrap-Up

A group of eight Hornsby Chapter members gathered on a lovely evening at Iron Works BBQ in Austin on Tuesday, May 15.  Topics of discussion included early season surprising/disappointing teams, brief reviews of Dan Walsh’s early season trip to Nationals Park and Jan Larson’s recent trip to Chase Field, some rehashing of members’ past experiences with ticket scalpers and a spirited discussion of BABIP.

The June meeting, scheduled for Saturday June 16, will include a pre-game meal at the Salt Lick BBQ followed by the Round Rock Express vs. Oklahoma City Redhawks game at the Dell Diamond.  Those interested will be given the opportunity to purchase advance tickets.  Details will be forthcoming.

May Meeting

We will be gathering at Iron Works BBQ located at 100 Red River in downtown Austin on Tuesday, May 15 starting at 6:00 p.m. 

There is a small parking lot on-site, a larger lot on the south side of Cesar Chavez plus large pay lots across the street to the east.  Please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com if you plan to attend.

April Meeting Summary

A smaller than usual but enthusastic group of seven gathered at Iron Works BBQ on Tuesday, April 17 to discuss baseball and consume meat.  Returning from a stint on the disabled list was chapter founder Bill Gilbert.

With no trivia quiz on the agenda there was more time to concentrate on the baseball topics of the day including (in no particular order) Ozzie Guillen, Bobby Valentine, the Dodgers’ triple play, the Astros’ early season competitiveness, various members’ upcoming baseball-related trips and the 2012 post-season format.  Other baseball topics, not necessarily of the day, that came up for discussion included Dave Kingman, the starting rotation of the ’81 Oakland Athletics, the 1990s Cleveland Indians, members’ first major league games, the relative abilities of past baseball greats versus modern players, some recent baseball books and former Astros’ second baseman Craig Biggio’s chances of first ballot election to the baseball Hall of Fame.

The next meeting is tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, May 15 at Iron Works.  Mark your calendars for Saturday, June 16 when we’ll attend the Round Rock vs. Oklahoma City game at the Dell Diamond.  More information will be forthcoming.

April Meeting

We will be gathering at Iron Works BBQ located at 100 Red River in downtown Austin on Tuesday, April 17 starting at 6:00 p.m. 

There is a small parking lot on-site, a larger lot on the south side of Cesar Chavez plus large pay lots across the street to the east.  Please RSVP to Jan Larson at jan.a.larson@gmail.com if you plan to attend.

 

Members take in Rangers-Express slugfest

 

040212 dell diamond

Chapter members kicked off the new baseball season by taking in an exhibition game between the Texas Rangers and the Round Rock Express on April 2 at the Dell Diamond. The teams combined for six home runs, three apiece per team.

Ten members and guests enjoyed the three Rangers home runs by Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton and Mitch Moreland, and the other three by Express players Yangervis Solarte, Luis Hernandez and Michael Bianucci. For more about the game, check out the team’s summary by clicking here.

Both starting pitchers, Derek Holland for the Rangers and Greg Reynolds for the Express, labored early in the game, throwing more than 40 pitches apiece in the first few innings.

Above is a view from the nice seats secured by Jan Larson.

The next chapter meeting will be at 6 p.m. Tuesday, April 17, at Iron Works BBQ in downtown Austin.

March meeting summary

normanmacht

The March chapter meeting turned into a book signing as Norman Macht brought and signed copies of the newly published “Connie Mack: The Turbulent & Triumphant Years, 1915-1931.”

Macht told 11 members and guests about how he is making good progress on the third and final volume of the Connie Mack biography, which is expected to be published in two years.

The group also welcomed Summer Anne Burton and Brian Campbell, who both attended a chapter meeting for the first time. Both are longtime Astros fans. Summer is an artist who is drawing every member of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. She’s up to inductees from the early 1980s. She shared some nifty business cards that featured her drawings. She’s been invited to share her work at a future Hornsby meeting, possibly the next winter meeting. To view her work, go to her website by clicking here.

Dan Walsh sprung on the group a Ron Santo-themed quiz, which was won by Jim Baker. You can try your hand at the quiz by clicking here, or going to the “Contests” tab above.

For Baker’s impressive win (he scored 13 of 15 points), Walsh presented him with a postcard reproduction of a Rogers Hornsby Barnstorming Poster. The back of the postcard reveals that the image is a stone litho advertisement used to promote Hornsby’s 1923 off-season tour. According to the post card, the poster sold for $8,250 at Leland’s August 1992 Hall of Fame Auction. The image is pictured below.

The next chapter meeting will be at 6 p.m. Tuesday, April 17, at Iron Works BBQ. Meanwhile, nine members will be attending an exhibition game between the Texas Rangers and the Round Rock Express on April 2.

hornsby postcard