Major League Ballparks

Major League Ballparks

(presented April 2009)

“You should enter a ballpark the way you enter a church.” – Bill “Spaceman” Lee

(Move the mouse over the blank space to see the answer)
1. Fenway Park is the oldest ballpark in the American League.  Now that there is a new Yankee Stadium, what is the 2nd oldest AL ballpark?  Name the ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt).

Angels Stadium, Anaheim – or – Anaheim Stadium, or Big A. (Opened in 1966).
2. This was the site of major league baseball’s first night game. Ballpark (2 pts) and city (1pt). 
Crosley Field, Cincinnati.  (May 24, 1935.  The Reds beat the Phillies 2-1).
3. The first regular season AL/NL interleague game was played at this ballpark. Name the ballpark (2 pts). Ballpark in Arlington (June 12, 1997.  Giants beat the Rangers 4-3).
4. This is the only current major league stadium with a dirt track between home plate and the pitcher’s mound. Also, 2nd highest elevation for a major league stadium.  Name the ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt). Chase Field or Bank One Ballpark or the BOB, Phoenix

5. Dave Winfield was arrested after a game for killing a seagull with a warm-up throw in the outfield.  At what ballpark did this take place? Exhibition Stadium, Toronto
6.

The Detroit Tigers changed the name of their home ballpark to Tiger Stadium in1961.  Before then, this ballpark was known as ______________ (1938-1960); and, before that it was known as ______________ (1912- 1937).

 Briggs Stadium, Navin Field
7.

7th Inning Stretch
Match the phrase that is associated with the ballpark (1 pt. each)

1. Big Apple                                 A. Fenway Park   
2. Bleacher Bums                        B. Fulton County Stadium
3. Coogan’s Bluff                         C. HHH Metrodome
4. Green Monster                         D. Miller Park
5. The House that Ruth Built        E. Minute Maid Park
6. The Launching Pad                  F. Municipal Stadium                    7. Mistake by the Lake                G. Polo Grounds    
8. Sausage races                        H. Shea Stadium
9. Tal’s Hill                                    I. Wrigley Field
10. Thunderdome                        J. Yankee Stadium      

1-H, 2-I, 3-G, 4-A, 5-J, 6-B, 7-F, 8-D, 9-E, 10-C
8.

This former NL ballpark currently resides in Gomez Palacio, Mexico and is used as a Mexican League stadium.  What is the original name (2 pts) and location (1 pt) of this ballpark?

Colt Stadium, Houston – (moved to Mexico in 1971)
9. The Florida Marlins played two games at this ballpark in 2004, because of Hurricane Ivan in Miami.  Name ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt). US Cellular Field or Comiskey Park, Chicago.
10. The record for the largest regular season attendance (4,483,350) was set in this ballpark.  Name the ballpark (2pts) and city (1 pt) Mile High Stadium, Denver (1993)
11. This ballpark was the scene of the following events: 56th game of DiMaggio’s hit streak; Babe Ruth’s 500th home run; first World Series unassisted triple play.  Name the ballpark (2 pts) and city (1pt).
League Park, Cleveland.
12. The scene of the first NL-AL World Series game in 1903.  Name ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt).
 Huntington Avenue Baseball Grounds, Boston
13. Olympic Games baseball competition has been played at these two major league ballparks.
Dodger Stadium (1984) and Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium (1996).  Baseball was also a demonstration sport in 1904 at St. Louis Olympics, but found no record of where games were played.
14. 14th inning stretch…..
Match the team with the ballpark (1 pt. each)
Note: There is only one answer for each ballpark

1. Baker Bowl A. Arizona Diamondbacks (2006-present)
2. Chase Field
B. Baltimore Orioles (1954-1991)
3. Exposition Park
C. Brooklyn Bridegrooms (1898-1912)
4. Hilltop Park D. Chicago Cubs (1916-18)
5. Jarry Park
 E. Cincinnati Reds (1902-1911)
6. Sicks’ Stadium
 F. Cleveland Indians (1901-1932)
7. Wrigley Field
G. Florida Marlins (1987-1996)
8. Memorial Stadium
 H. Kansas City Athletics (1955-1967)
9. Municipal Stadium
 I. Los Angeles Angels (1961)
10. Network Assoc. Coliseum
 J. Montreal Expos (1969-1976)
11. Palace of the Fans
 K. New York Yankees (1903-1912)
12. Robison Field
L. Oakland A’s (1998-2004)
13. Rogers Centre
M. Philadelphia Athletics (1909-1954)
14. SBC Park
 N. Philadelphia Phillies (1895-1938)
15. Shibe Park
 O. Pittsburgh Pirates (1891-1909)
16. Joe Robbie Stadium
 P. San Francisco Giants (2004-2006)
17. Sportsman’s Park
Q. Seattle Pilots (1969)
18. Washington Park
R. St. Louis Browns (1902-1953)
19. Weeghman Park
S. St. Louis Cardinals (1893-1920)
20. League Park
 T. Toronto Blue Jays (1989-present)

1-N, 2-A, 3-O, 4-K, 5-J, 6-Q, 7-I, 8-B, 9-H, 10-L,
11-E, 12-S, 13-T, 14-P, 15-M, 16-G, 17-R, 18-C, 19-D, 20-F
15. The 1950’s TV show Home Run Derby was filmed at this ballpark.  Name the ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt). Wrigley Field, Los Angeles
16. In 1945, the home team hit only one home run in their home ballpark, and that was an inside-the-park homer.  Name the ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt). Griffith Stadium, Washington DC, (HR by Joe Kuhel)
17. The championship game of the first World Baseball Classic was played at this ballpark.
PETCO Park, San Diego. (Japan beat Cuba 10-6 in March 2006).
18. The first major league game played on the West Coast was at this ballpark.  Name ballpark (2pts) and city (1 pt). Seals Stadium, San Francisco. (April 15, 1958. Giants-8, Dodgers-0)
19. Where Babe Ruth hit home runs 712, 713, and 714, all in the same game; and, no no-hitter was ever pitched here. Name the ballpark (2 pts) and city (1 pt). Forbes Field, Pittsburgh. (May 25, 1935.  Ruth was member of Boston Braves; his final game was May 30.)
20. The first ballpark with a screen behind home plate, designed to protect fans and allow foul balls to roll back down onto the field of play. Fenway Park
21. In 1984, Dave Kingman hit a ball through the roof of this stadium, and was (incorrectly) credited with a double.
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. (May 4, 1984, Twins vs. A’s.)
22. The site of the first World Series night game was _____________.
 Three Rivers Stadium, Pittsburgh (1971)
23. The first regular season Negro League game was played here in 1930; as well as the last Negro League All-Star game ever played, in 1961. Yankee Stadium
24. This NL ballpark features a garden in the home dugout that is maintained by the pitching staff.
Coors Field
25. The Final (Bail) Out (tiebreaker, if needed)
Name the teams who sold their ballpark naming rights to these financial institutions. (1 pt each)
Corporation
PNC Financial               
Citizens Bank               
Ameriquest Mortgage           
Citi Group               
JP Morgan Chase           

Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies

Texas Rangers

New York Mets

Arizona Diamondbacks

Total possible points: 88, including tiebreaker
  KUDOS
This quiz could not have been completed without the assistance of Green Cathedrals by Philip J. Lowry (SABR, 2006).

 

 

Whitey, Lefty and the Kid…

Whitey, Lefty and the Kid…

are not the answers to any of the questions on this quiz

(presented August 2009)

(Move the mouse over the blank space to see the answer)
 
1.

One dozen Classic Nicknames that every baseball fan should know.  Name the HOF player who matches the nickname in left column. (1/2 pt. for each correct answer = 6 pts. total)

Big Train 
The Flying Dutchman
The Fordham Flash
Georgia Peach
The Grey Eagle
Hit ‘em Where they Ain’t
The Iron Horse
Say Hey Kid
Splendid Splinter
Stan the Man              
Sultan of Swat               
The Yankee Clipper           

 

 

Walter Johnson
Honus Wagner
Frankie Frisch
Ty Cobb
Tris Speaker
Willie Keeler
Lou Gehrig
Willie Mays
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Babe Ruth
Joe DiMaggio

 
2. The Killer B’s: Name five players who were Killer B’s.  (1 pt. each = 5 pts. total) Any of the following players are legitimate answers: Jeff Bagwell (91-05), Craig Biggio (91-07), Derek Bell (95-99), Sean Berry (96-98), Tim Bogar (97-00), Lance Berkman (99-09), Geof Blum (02-03,08-09), Eric Bruntlett (03-07), Carlos Beltran (04), Chris Burke (04-07), Michael Bourn (08-09)
3. Several members of the Gashouse Gang had colorful nicknames, including Dazzy, Dizzy, Daffy, Ducky …and Spud, Pepper, Lip, and Ripper…and Tex.  Name these nine members of the Gashouse Gang. (1 pt. each= 9 pts. total)

Dazzy Vance, Dizzy Dean, Daffy Dean, Ducky Medwick, Spud Davis, Pepper Martin, Leo “Lip” Durocher, Ripper Collins and Tex Carlton
4.

Big ‘Uns – nicknames beginning with BIG.  Name the player and his nickname. (1pt. each= 5 pts total)

“Big _____” was one of first players elected to HOF, and holds modern NL record of 37 wins in a season. This player is ____________.

“Big ____” was the 1997 College Player of the Year.  He is _____________.

“Big _______” is HOFer who played 14 seasons in same outfield with “Little” brother. He is ___________.

“The Big ______” won back-to-back MVP awards in 1993-1994. He is _________.

“Big ______” has won four Cy Young Awards in last ten years. He is _________.

 


 

 

"Big Six" Christy Mathewson

 

 "Big Puma" Lance Berkman

 

"Big Poison" Paul Waner

 

"The Big Hurt" Frank Thomas

 

"Big Unit" Randy Johnson
5.

But, I thought that was his first name….  Match the ballplayer with his REAL first name.
(1 pt. each = 10 pts. total)     I know… this really isn’t fair.

1. Bo Jackson A. Charles
2. Bud Black B. Colbert
3. Casey Stengel C. Denton
4. Mickey Cochrane D. Edgar
5. Cy Young E. Gordon
6. Toby Harrah F. Harold
7. Mickey Rivers G. Harry
 
8. Pete Reiser H. John Milton
 
9. Sam Rice I. Thurman
10.  Rusty Greer J. Vincent

 

 

 

 

 

 

            
                
   

 

                                               

 

1-J

2-G

3-A

4-E

5-C

6-B

7-H

8-F

9-D

10-I
6.

Name Detroit’s G-Men.  (1 pt. each = 3 pts. total)

 Charlie Gehringer, Goose Goslin, Hank Greenberg
7.

Double Play Combos:  Players did not necessarily play together (1/2 pt. for each player, or 1 ½ pt for each combo = 9 pts. total)

Wizard – Maz – Stretch (6-4-3)    

 

Penguin – Cookie – Pops (5-4-3)

 

Ryno – Scooter – Double X (4-6-3)

 

Pudge – Baby Bull – Rowdy (2-3-6)

 

Pinky – Bump – Dr. Strangeglove (5-4-3)

 

Flip – Stonewall – Big Cat (5-6-3)

 

 

 

Ozzie Smith – Bill Mazeroski – Willie McCovey

Ron Cey – Octavio “Cookie” Rojas – Willie Stargell

 

Ryne Sandberg – Phil Rizzuto – Jimmie Foxx

C. Fisk or Ivan Rodriguez – Orlando Cepeda – Dick Bartell

 

Mike Higgins or Art Whitney – E.”Bump” Wills – Dick Stuart

 

Al Rosen – Travis Jackson – Johnny Mize or Andres Galarraga
8.

Teams to Remember:  Name the Team and Year (1 pt. each = 8 pts. total)

Boys of Summer
The Family
Harvey’s Wallbangers
The Hitless Wonders
Whiz Kids
Big Red Machine
Murderer’s Row
Miracle Braves

 

1950s Brooklyn Dodgers
1979 Pittsburgh Pirates
1982 Milwaukee Brewers
1906 Chicago White Sox
1950 Philadelphia Phillies
1970s Cincinnati Reds
1927 New York Yankees
1914 Boston Braves
9. Name the Bird, a Barber, and a Spaceman (1 pt. each = 3 pts total) Bird – Mark Fidrych
Barber – Sal Maglie
Spaceman – Bill Lee
10.

World Series Winners:  Each of the following players won two (or more) games in a single World Series.  Name the player (1/2 pt.), his team (1/2 pt.), and the year of the Series (1 pt.). (12 pts. total)

Prince Hal

Bulldog

Smoky Joe

Mudcat

Schoolboy

Preacher


 

 

Hal Newhouser, Detroit Tigers, 1945

Orel Hershiser, L.A. Dodgers, 1988

Joe Wood, Boston Red Sox, 1912

Jim Grant, Minnesota Twins, 1965

Waite Hoyt, N.Y. Yankees, 1921 and 1928

Vern Law, PIttsburgh Pirates, 1960
  Total Possible Points = 70
  

 

 

August Meeting Wrap-up

The Rogers Hornsby Chapter of SABR held its monthly get-together at Third Base in Austin on August 25, 2009.  Six members were in attendance.  It was the 33rd consecutive month that the Chapter has held a meeting.

The highlight of the meeting was a very well researched quiz involving nicknames by Dan Walsh.  Who knew that Toby Harrah’s real first name was Colbert?  With 70 possible correct answers, Bill Gilbert, fresh off the DL, won with 53 1/2 edging out Mike Dillon.

There was some spirited discussion involving the long odds of unassisted triple plays, 4-homer games and perfect games as we watched Joba Chamberlain get lit up by the Texas Rangers.

The next meeting is scheduled for 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 17 at Third Base.

2009 Cy Young Prognostication Poll

Enter the SABR-Hornsby Chapter’s annual Cy Young Prognostication Poll.

By no later than Noon (CT) on Tuesday, September 1, email your predictions for the Cy Young Award to Monte Cely at cely@swbell.net.

Provide the following for your prediction:

NL Cy Young Award winner; NL Cy Young runner-up; NL Cy Young third place finisher.

AL Cy Young Award winner, runner-up, and third place.

Guess the ERA of whoever wins the NL Cy Young Award, and that will serve as a tie-breaker.

If you have questions or comments, email Monte at cely@swbell.net.

HORNSBY CHAPTER MEMBER PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 ARE:

Jim Baker:  NL – Lincecum, Wainwright, Carpenter; AL – Verlander, Greinke, F. Hernandez; NL Winner’s ERA = 2.32

Jan Larson:  Linceum, Carpenter, Wainwright; Greinke, Verlander, Hernandez; 2.34

Tom Wancho:  Lincecum, Wainwright, Carpenter; Verlander, Greinke, Feldman; 2.14

Norman Macht:  Carpenter, Lincecum, Cain; Hernandez, Beckett, Greinke; 2.31

Michael Bass:  Lincecum, Wainwright, Carpenter; Verlander, Sabathia, Beckett; 2.42

Bill Gilbert:  Wainwright, Lincecum, Carpenter; Greinke, Sabathia, Verlander; 2.35

Gilbert Martinez:  Lincecum, Carpenter, Wainwright; Verlander, Greinke, Hernandez; 2.42

 

 

Hornsby Chapter Winter Meeting 2010

The annual Winter Meeting of the Rogers Hornsby Chapter has been set for Saturday, January 16, 2010 on the campus of Texas State University.  Houston Astros play-by-play announcer Bill Brown will be the headline speaker.  There will also be a panel discussion on "Hot Topics in Baseball" as well as several other presentations.

You may contact any member of the organizing committee if you have any questions or suggestions:

Gilbert Martinez : gmartinez46@austin.rr.com

Monte Cely : cely@swbell.net

Jan Larson : jan.a.larson@gmail.com

Bill Gilbert : billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net

 

Led the league in hits and won MVP

Gilbert D. Martinez                        SABR — Rogers Hornsby Chapter

Nov. 19, 2008

 

MVP winners who also led their league in hits in the modern era (since 1931)

(Note: indented lines indicate players who met the criteria, but did not achieve at least 200 hits)

 

Dustin Pedroia, BOS (2008) 213 hits – tied with Suzuki

Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (2001) 242 hits

            Terry Pendleton, ATL (1991) 187 hits

Willie McGee, STL (1985) 216 hits

Cal Ripken, BAL (1983) 211 hits

Robin Yount, MIL (1982) 210 hits

Jim Rice, BOS (1978) 213 hits

Rod Carew, MIN (1977) 239 hits

Pete Rose, CIN (1973) 230 hits

Joe Torre, STL (1971) 230 hits

Carl Yastrzemski, BOS (1967) 189 hits

Stan Musial, STL (1948) 230 hits

Stan Musial, STL (1946) 228 hits

Stan Musial, STL (1943) 220 hits

            Frank McCormick, CIN (1940) 191 hits – tied with Stan Hack, CHC

Joe Medwick, STL (1937) 237 hits

Chuck Klein, PHI (1932) 226 hits

 

 

 

 

 

200-Hit Seasons

200 Hit Seasons

(presented Sept. 18, 2007)

(Move the mouse over the blank space to see the answer)
1. Since 1900, who has the most 200-hit seasons, and how many did he have (or has he had)?

Pete Rose (10)
2.

Since 1900, who has the most consecutive 200-hit seasons, and how long was the streak?

Wade Boggs (7) and Ichiro Suzuki (7)

 
3.

Going into the 2007 campaign, two players had consecutive 200-hit season streaks going. Hint: one of them reached the 200 plateau already; the other is close but might not make it.

Ichiro Suzuki (7) and Michael Young (4)
4.

Only eight players since 1900 have seven or more seasons of 200 hits. Who are they?

Wade Boggs (7)

Ty Cobb (9)

Lou Gehrig (8)

Charlie Gehringer (7)

Rogers Hornsby (7)

Pete Rose (10)

Ichiro Suzuki (7)

Paul Waner (8)
5.

Through 2006, how many times has a player reached 200 hits in a season and how many different players have reached that mark in a season?

461 times by 226 different players
6.

Name the only Houston Astros player to reach the 200-hit plateau in a season.

Craig Biggio (1998)
7.

Of the current lineup of MLB teams, only three teams have never had a player garner 200 hits in a season. One of them is the Washington Nationals, which hasn’t done it in their two-season existence (but several players reached the plateau for the Montreal Expos). Name the two other teams.

Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays
8.

The New York Mets and the Florida Marlins have each had only one player reach 200 hits. Name them.

Mets: Lance Johnson (1996)

Marlins: Juan Pierre (2003 and 2004)
9.

Of all the 200-hit seasons since 1900, name the player that had the most at-bats at the end of the season (705).

Willie Wilson (1980)
10.

Name the player that achieved at least 200 hits in a season and did it in the fewest number of at-bats (504) since 1900.

Rogers Hornsby

 

 

How Good Is This Guy?

 

How Good Is This Guy?
 
            In September, 2005, I wrote an article entitled, “The Best Hitter in the World”. The subject was Albert Pujols. It might have been a bold statement to make about a player that had not yet completed 5 years in the major leagues and not won an MVP Award. Since then, Pujols has kept right on going. In the month after my article was written, I was in Minute Maid Park in Houston when Pujols launched his moon shot off Brad Lidge to temporarily keep the Cardinals in The National League Championship Series.
 
            After 8 full seasons in the major leagues at the age of 29, this may be a good time for a reassessment. A reasonable assumption might be that Pujols is at the midway point of a 16 year career. If, in the next 8 years, he can duplicate what he has accomplished in his first 8 years, he would wind up with the following numbers:
 
Category Value Rank Comment
Batting Average .334 23  
On-Base Percentage .425 13  
Slugging Average .624 4 Behind Ruth, Williams, Gehrig
OPS 1.049 5 Also behind Bonds
Hits 3,062 19  
Home Runs 638 5  
RBIs 1954 5  
 
  
            Of course, Pujols may not continue at this rate. The landscape is littered with players like Ron Santo, Jim Rice, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy and Roberto Alomar who appeared to be on the way to solid Hall of Fame careers but who suddenly lost their skills in their early thirties. The same could happen with Pujols but with his consistency and makeup, I would not expect it.
 
            Pujols may extend his career beyond 16 years as many Hall of Fame players have done. This would enhance his counting stats (hits, home runs), probably with some deterioration of his rate stats
 
            The most remarkable aspect of Pujols’ career is his consistency. His lowest batting average in his 8 years is .314 in 2002 and his lowest power numbers were in 2007 with 32 home runs and 103 RBIs. He has averaged 40 home runs and 122 RBIs in his 8 years but has never led the league in either category. He has finished in the top four in the NL MVP voting in 7 of his 8 years but has won the award only twice.
 
            Back to the original question of how good he is, he should take his place in the top five along with Ruth, Williams, Gehrig and Bonds as possibly the best right-handed hitter of all time.
 
Bill Gilbert
2/16/09          

Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

 

 
 
Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 12, 2009. 
 
Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not”.
 
The 2009 class of Hall of Fame candidates is not a strong one. It consists of 13 holdovers and 10 players eligible for the first time.  Seven holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Tim Raines with 390, Mark McGwire with 342, Andre Dawson, 340, Bert Blyleven, 339, Dave Parker, 327, Alan Trammell 318 and Harold Baines with 307. The only newcomer on the list with over 300 Win Shares is Rickey Henderson with 535. Henderson ranks 15th on the all-time Win Shares list, slightly ahead of Frank Robinson, Rogers Hornsby and Lou Gehrig, and is certain to be elected on the first ballot. The only other newcomer who is even close to 300 win shares is Mark Grace with 294.
 
 In 2008, Goose Gossage was elected with 78% of the votes and Dave Concepcion (16%) was unsuccessful in his last (15th) year and is not on the 2009 ballot. No newcomers were elected and only Raines had enough votes to remain on the ballot (25%).
 
With Raines the only strong candidate on the 2008 ballot, most of the holdovers gained ground. The biggest gainers were Bert Blyleven (76 votes), Andre Dawson (49 votes) and Jim Rice (46 votes). Rice’s total of 392 votes (72.2%) puts him within striking distance of the 75% required for election and makes it very likely he will make it in 2009, his last year on the BBWAA ballot. Dawson (65.9%) and Blyleven (61.9%) have also moved into position for a run at election in the next couple of years.
 
Mark McGwire is a special case.  He has the numbers to be elected but remains tainted with the steroid cloud. Voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving McGwire a pass. He failed to gain ground in 2008 so it is likely to be a slow process.
 
Raines would appear to have the credentials for election but received only 24% of the votes in his first year on the ballot. He should gain significantly in 2009 but has a long way to go. On the 2009 ballot, no newcomers, other than Henderson, are likely to receive the 5% required to remain on the ballot next year.
 
Following is a list of Win Shares for the 23 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold. Voting results for 2006, 2007 and 2008 are shown for the holdovers.
 
 
 
Player      Win Shares 2006 Votes 2006 Percent 2007 Votes 2007 Percent 2008 Votes 2008 Percent
Rickey Henderson 535            
Tim Raines 390         132 24.3
Mark McGwire 342     128 23.5 128 23.6
Andre Dawson 340 317 61.0 309 56.7 358 65.9
Bert Blyleven 339 277 53.3 260 47.7 336 61.9
Dave Parker 327 76 14.4 62 11.4 82 15.1
Alan Trammell 318 92 17.7 73 13.4 99 18.2
Harold Baines 307     29 5.3 28 5.2
Dale Murphy 294 56 10.8 50 9.2 75 13.8
Mark Grace 294            
Tommy John 289 154 29.6 125 22.9 158 29.1
Jim Rice 282 337 64.8 346 63.5 392 72.2
Don Mattingly 263 64 12.3 54 9.9 86 15.8
Jay Bell 245            
Matt Williams 241            
Jack Morris 225 214 41.2 202 37.1 233 42.9
Ron Gant 206            
David Cone 205            
Mo Vaughn 201            
Greg Vaughn 199            
Lee Smith 198 234 45.0 217 39.8 235 43.3
Jesse Orosco 141            
Dan Plesac 113            
 
 
            The last 13 players elected by the Baseball Writers have averaged 344 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by only Henderson and Raines on the ballot this year.
 
 
Player Year Win Shares
Dave Winfield 2001 415
Kirby Puckett 2001 281
Ozzie Smith 2002 325
Gary Carter 2003 337
Eddie Murray 2003 437
Paul Molitor 2004 414
Dennis Eckersley 2004 301
Wade Boggs 2005 394
Ryne Sandberg 2005 346
Bruce Sutter 2006 168
Cal Ripken 2007 427
Tony Gwynn 2007 398
Goose Gossage 2008 223
     
Average   344
 
 
Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments. A measure of the quality of a player’s performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) with the league average during his career. An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player. A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career. 
 
Following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 23 candidates on the 2009 ballot:
 
Batter OPS+ Pitcher ERA+
Mark McGwire 162 Lee Smith 131
Mo Vaughn 132 Jesse Orosco 125
Jim Rice 128 David Cone 120
Rickey Henderson 127 Bert Blyleven 118
Don Mattingly 127 Dan Plesac 117
Tim Raines 123 Tommy John 110
Dale Murphy 121 Jack Morris 105
Dave Parker 121    
Harold Baines 120    
Andre Dawson 119    
Mark Grace 119    
Ron Gant 112    
Greg Vaughn 112    
Matt Williams 112    
Alan Trammell 110    
Jay Bell 101    
 
 
            The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Raines, Dawson and Blyleven while OPS+ rewards batters who had shorter, more dominant careers like Mo Vaughan, Rice and Mattingly. ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.
 
Conclusions: 
 
1.      Rickey Henderson will be elected easily in 2009 and will give a unique acceptance speech.
 
2.      Jim Rice, a borderline candidate, will be elected in his final year on the ballot.
 
3    Mark McGwire will not come close but will gain some ground and could get elected in the future. He is the only eligible player with over 500 home runs not in the Hall.
 
4.  No newcomers other than Henderson will receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.
 
5.  BBWAA voters typically average voting for about 5 candidates on their ballots. With the lack of attractive new candidates on the ballot, the leading holdovers are likely to pick up more votes. In addition to Rice, players like Blyleven and Dawson could achieve significant gains to put them in position for possible election in the next two years.
 
6.   There will not be a groundswell of support for Jesse Orosco and Dan Plesac.
 
If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Henderson, Raines, Blyleven, McGwire and Trammell.
 
Bill Gilbert
12/27/08