How Good Is This Guy?

 

How Good Is This Guy?
 
            In September, 2005, I wrote an article entitled, “The Best Hitter in the World”. The subject was Albert Pujols. It might have been a bold statement to make about a player that had not yet completed 5 years in the major leagues and not won an MVP Award. Since then, Pujols has kept right on going. In the month after my article was written, I was in Minute Maid Park in Houston when Pujols launched his moon shot off Brad Lidge to temporarily keep the Cardinals in The National League Championship Series.
 
            After 8 full seasons in the major leagues at the age of 29, this may be a good time for a reassessment. A reasonable assumption might be that Pujols is at the midway point of a 16 year career. If, in the next 8 years, he can duplicate what he has accomplished in his first 8 years, he would wind up with the following numbers:
 
Category Value Rank Comment
Batting Average .334 23  
On-Base Percentage .425 13  
Slugging Average .624 4 Behind Ruth, Williams, Gehrig
OPS 1.049 5 Also behind Bonds
Hits 3,062 19  
Home Runs 638 5  
RBIs 1954 5  
 
  
            Of course, Pujols may not continue at this rate. The landscape is littered with players like Ron Santo, Jim Rice, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy and Roberto Alomar who appeared to be on the way to solid Hall of Fame careers but who suddenly lost their skills in their early thirties. The same could happen with Pujols but with his consistency and makeup, I would not expect it.
 
            Pujols may extend his career beyond 16 years as many Hall of Fame players have done. This would enhance his counting stats (hits, home runs), probably with some deterioration of his rate stats
 
            The most remarkable aspect of Pujols’ career is his consistency. His lowest batting average in his 8 years is .314 in 2002 and his lowest power numbers were in 2007 with 32 home runs and 103 RBIs. He has averaged 40 home runs and 122 RBIs in his 8 years but has never led the league in either category. He has finished in the top four in the NL MVP voting in 7 of his 8 years but has won the award only twice.
 
            Back to the original question of how good he is, he should take his place in the top five along with Ruth, Williams, Gehrig and Bonds as possibly the best right-handed hitter of all time.
 
Bill Gilbert
2/16/09          

Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

 

 
 
Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 12, 2009. 
 
Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not”.
 
The 2009 class of Hall of Fame candidates is not a strong one. It consists of 13 holdovers and 10 players eligible for the first time.  Seven holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Tim Raines with 390, Mark McGwire with 342, Andre Dawson, 340, Bert Blyleven, 339, Dave Parker, 327, Alan Trammell 318 and Harold Baines with 307. The only newcomer on the list with over 300 Win Shares is Rickey Henderson with 535. Henderson ranks 15th on the all-time Win Shares list, slightly ahead of Frank Robinson, Rogers Hornsby and Lou Gehrig, and is certain to be elected on the first ballot. The only other newcomer who is even close to 300 win shares is Mark Grace with 294.
 
 In 2008, Goose Gossage was elected with 78% of the votes and Dave Concepcion (16%) was unsuccessful in his last (15th) year and is not on the 2009 ballot. No newcomers were elected and only Raines had enough votes to remain on the ballot (25%).
 
With Raines the only strong candidate on the 2008 ballot, most of the holdovers gained ground. The biggest gainers were Bert Blyleven (76 votes), Andre Dawson (49 votes) and Jim Rice (46 votes). Rice’s total of 392 votes (72.2%) puts him within striking distance of the 75% required for election and makes it very likely he will make it in 2009, his last year on the BBWAA ballot. Dawson (65.9%) and Blyleven (61.9%) have also moved into position for a run at election in the next couple of years.
 
Mark McGwire is a special case.  He has the numbers to be elected but remains tainted with the steroid cloud. Voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving McGwire a pass. He failed to gain ground in 2008 so it is likely to be a slow process.
 
Raines would appear to have the credentials for election but received only 24% of the votes in his first year on the ballot. He should gain significantly in 2009 but has a long way to go. On the 2009 ballot, no newcomers, other than Henderson, are likely to receive the 5% required to remain on the ballot next year.
 
Following is a list of Win Shares for the 23 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold. Voting results for 2006, 2007 and 2008 are shown for the holdovers.
 
 
 
Player      Win Shares 2006 Votes 2006 Percent 2007 Votes 2007 Percent 2008 Votes 2008 Percent
Rickey Henderson 535            
Tim Raines 390         132 24.3
Mark McGwire 342     128 23.5 128 23.6
Andre Dawson 340 317 61.0 309 56.7 358 65.9
Bert Blyleven 339 277 53.3 260 47.7 336 61.9
Dave Parker 327 76 14.4 62 11.4 82 15.1
Alan Trammell 318 92 17.7 73 13.4 99 18.2
Harold Baines 307     29 5.3 28 5.2
Dale Murphy 294 56 10.8 50 9.2 75 13.8
Mark Grace 294            
Tommy John 289 154 29.6 125 22.9 158 29.1
Jim Rice 282 337 64.8 346 63.5 392 72.2
Don Mattingly 263 64 12.3 54 9.9 86 15.8
Jay Bell 245            
Matt Williams 241            
Jack Morris 225 214 41.2 202 37.1 233 42.9
Ron Gant 206            
David Cone 205            
Mo Vaughn 201            
Greg Vaughn 199            
Lee Smith 198 234 45.0 217 39.8 235 43.3
Jesse Orosco 141            
Dan Plesac 113            
 
 
            The last 13 players elected by the Baseball Writers have averaged 344 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by only Henderson and Raines on the ballot this year.
 
 
Player Year Win Shares
Dave Winfield 2001 415
Kirby Puckett 2001 281
Ozzie Smith 2002 325
Gary Carter 2003 337
Eddie Murray 2003 437
Paul Molitor 2004 414
Dennis Eckersley 2004 301
Wade Boggs 2005 394
Ryne Sandberg 2005 346
Bruce Sutter 2006 168
Cal Ripken 2007 427
Tony Gwynn 2007 398
Goose Gossage 2008 223
     
Average   344
 
 
Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments. A measure of the quality of a player’s performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) with the league average during his career. An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player. A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career. 
 
Following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 23 candidates on the 2009 ballot:
 
Batter OPS+ Pitcher ERA+
Mark McGwire 162 Lee Smith 131
Mo Vaughn 132 Jesse Orosco 125
Jim Rice 128 David Cone 120
Rickey Henderson 127 Bert Blyleven 118
Don Mattingly 127 Dan Plesac 117
Tim Raines 123 Tommy John 110
Dale Murphy 121 Jack Morris 105
Dave Parker 121    
Harold Baines 120    
Andre Dawson 119    
Mark Grace 119    
Ron Gant 112    
Greg Vaughn 112    
Matt Williams 112    
Alan Trammell 110    
Jay Bell 101    
 
 
            The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Raines, Dawson and Blyleven while OPS+ rewards batters who had shorter, more dominant careers like Mo Vaughan, Rice and Mattingly. ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.
 
Conclusions: 
 
1.      Rickey Henderson will be elected easily in 2009 and will give a unique acceptance speech.
 
2.      Jim Rice, a borderline candidate, will be elected in his final year on the ballot.
 
3    Mark McGwire will not come close but will gain some ground and could get elected in the future. He is the only eligible player with over 500 home runs not in the Hall.
 
4.  No newcomers other than Henderson will receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.
 
5.  BBWAA voters typically average voting for about 5 candidates on their ballots. With the lack of attractive new candidates on the ballot, the leading holdovers are likely to pick up more votes. In addition to Rice, players like Blyleven and Dawson could achieve significant gains to put them in position for possible election in the next two years.
 
6.   There will not be a groundswell of support for Jesse Orosco and Dan Plesac.
 
If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Henderson, Raines, Blyleven, McGwire and Trammell.
 
Bill Gilbert
12/27/08

 

Rating the Veterans Committee Candidates for the Hall of Fame 2009

 

Rating the Veterans Committee Candidates for the Hall of Fame
 
 
            On December 8, the results of the Veterans Committee voting for the Hall of Fame will be announced. There are two ballots, each with 10 names. One is for players who made their major league debuts in or after 1943 and the other is for players who made their major league debuts before 1943. All of the players on the second list are now deceased.
 
            The voters are different for each of the two groups.  For the post-1943 players, the voters are the 64 living Hall of Fame players and an election is held every two years. For the pre-1943 players, the voting is done by a panel of 12 Hall members and members of the media. Elections for this group are held every 5 years. Each participant in both elections can vote for up to four candidates allowing for a maximum of five selections. In each case, a player must receive votes on at least 75% of the ballots cast in order to be elected. 
 
            The rules state that those whose careers included involvement as managers/executives/ umpires will be considered for their overall contribution to the game.
 
            In an attempt to rate the players on both lists, Win Shares and OPS+ were used as measures of performance for position players and Win Shares and ERA+ were used for pitchers. The Win Shares system, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer”.
 
            OPS+ compares a players On Base Percentage plus Slugging Average (OPS), after some minor adjustments for context, against the league OPS for the years of his career. A player with an OPS+ of 130 has an adjusted OPS 30% better than the league average. ERA+ is a similar concept for pitchers. An ERA+ of 130 is 30% better than the league average.
 
            Win Shares basically measure the quantity of a player’s accomplishments while OPS+/ERA+ measure the quality of his performance.
 
            Here are the Win Shares and OPS+/ERA+ for the ten players on both lists ranked by Win Shares. These figures are then compared to examples of solid Hall of Famers (Willie McCovey, Bob Gibson) and borderline Hall of Famers (Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven).
 
 
Player (1943+) Win Shares OPS+/ERA+
Dick Allen 342 156
Ron Santo 324 123
Vada Pinson 321 110
Joe Torre 315 129
Al Oliver 305 122
Jim Kaat (P) 268 107
Gil Hodges 263 119
Luis Tiant (P) 256 114
Maury Wills 253 88
Tony Oliva 245 130
     
Examples
    
Willie McCovey 408 148
Bob Gibson (P)  317 127
Jim Rice 282 127
Bert Blyleven (P) 339 118
     
Player (Pre-1943) Win Shares OPS+/ERA+
Bill Dahlen 394 109
Sherry Magee 354 137
Mickey Vernon 296 116
Vern Stephens 265 118
Bucky Walters (P)  258 115
Carl Mays (P) 256 119
Joe Gordon 242 121
Wes Ferrell (P) 233 117
Deacon White 190 122
Allie Reynolds (P) 170 110
  
 
            The numbers above suggest that, while none of these players has an iron clad case for the Hall, Allen, Santo, Dahlen and Magee have numbers that provide credible credentials for Hall entry. Hodges and especially Torre can make respectable cases when their success as managers is taken into account. 
 
            Since these players have been passed over numerous times in previous elections, their chances of getting 75% of the voters to decide in their favor cannot be very high. My guess is that none will be elected this time with Santo and Hodges having the best chance.
 
Bill Gilbert
12/6/08

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2008?

 

Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2008?
       
     By Bill Gilbert
 
      Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:
 
1. The ability to get on base.
2. The ability to hit with power.
3. The ability to add value through baserunning.
 
      The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:
 
     BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)
 
     Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance
            TB   = Total Bases
            BB   = Bases on Balls
            HB   = Hit by Pitch
            SB   = Stolen Bases
            CS   = Caught Stealing
            GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays
            AB   = At Bats
            SF   = Sacrifice Flies
 
The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.
 
      Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:
 
Year  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
 BPA  .467 .463 .471 .463 .463 .479 .481 .468 .457 .461 .468 .456 .470 .463 .458
.550    38   37   41   34   41   50   50   46   39   42   33   34   46   34   41
.600    16   15   21   15   22   29   30   26   17   15   18   13   14   15   11
 
Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this decade. BPA in 2008 was down slightly from 2007.
 
      In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the nine year period from 2000 to 2008, there have been 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799). Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921).  Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There were no hitters with a BPA of .700 in 2008 and the only player to make it in 2007 was Alex Rodriguez (.702). Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his eight seasons. However, he was the leader in 2008 by a large margin with a BPA of .685, the first time he has finished on top.
 
 
 
      The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2007 are listed below:
   
Player              Team           Year       BPA
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2001      .907
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2004      .882
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2002      .869
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2003      .818
Sammy Sosa          Chicago Cubs   2001      .758
Barry Bonds         San Francisco  2000      .745
Jim Thome           Cleveland      2002      .728
Manny Ramirez       Cleveland      2000      .726
Todd Helton         Colorado       2000      .720
Luis Gonzalez       Arizona        2001      .713
Todd Helton         Colorado       2001      .709
Carlos Delgado      Toronto        2000      .707
Larry Walker        Colorado       2001      .707
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2000      .706
Travis Hafner       Cleveland      2006      .703
Alex Rodriguez      NY Yankees     2007      .702
Jason Giambi        Oakland        2001      .700
Ryan Howard         Philadelphia   2006      .700
 
The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:
 
1992 Bonds        .734  1993 Bonds     .740 1994 Bagwell  .768
1995 Belle        .692  1996 McGwire   .765 1997 Walker   .770
1998 McGwire      .799  1999 McGwire   .735 2000 Bonds    .745 
2001 Bonds        .907  2002 Bonds     .869 2003 Bonds    .818
2004 Bonds        .882  2005 D. Lee    .699 2006 Hafner   .703
2007 A. Rodriguez .702  2008 Pujols    .685
 
 
      The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 11 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2008.
 
Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA) of .600+ in 2008
————————————————- 
                                No. of
                 2007   2008     .600+
   Player         BPA    BPA LG Seasons Comments         
 1 Pujols, A.    .583   .685   N    6    Clearly the top offensive player.
 2 Ramirez, M.   .518   .636 A/N   11    New life on the West Coast.    
 3 Berkman, L.   .570   .633   N    5    Back on list after an off-year.
 4 Ramirez, H.   .634   .629   N    2    Emerging superstar
 5 Jones, C.     .629   .625   N    4    Still one of the best.
 6 Holliday, M.  .621   .624   N    2    Solid production, especially at Coors.
 7 Rodriguez, A, .702   .623   A   10    Not up to his usual standard.
 8 Bradley, M.   .493   .617   A    1    Misses a lot of games.
 9 Ludwick, R.   .530   .615   N    1    Can he do it again?
10 Quentin, C.   .397   .612   A    1    Carried the White Sox for months.
11 Sizemore, G.  .572   .611   A    2    Can do it all.
 
  
      The only repeaters from last year’s list are Hanley Ramirez, Jones, Holliday and Rodriguez. Eleven other players had a BPA over .600 in 2007 but fell short in 2008. Most of these players had strong seasons in 2008 but not up to their exceptional performance in 2007.
 
 
                                 No. of
                 2007   2008     .600+
   Player         BPA   BPA LG Seasons Comments            
 1 Pena, C.      .678   .567   A    1    Didn’t quite repeat 2007 career year.
 2 Ortiz, D.     .663   .555   A    5    Held back by injured wrist.
 3 Fielder, P.   .659   .552   N    1    Slow start held him back.
 4 Howard, R.    .631   .577   N    2    Came on strong in September.
 5 Wright, D.    .626   .581   N    1    Didn’t quite match big year in 2007.
 6 Granderson, C..621   .554   A    1    Good but not great.
 7 Thome, J.     .621   .550   A   12    In gradual decline.
 8 Dunn, A.      .617   .596 N/A    3    Consistent year-to-year.
 9 Utley, C.     .614   .593   N    1    Does everything well.
10 Ordonez, M.   .612   .485   A    2    Big drop-off from strong 2007 season.
11 Teixeira, M.  .609   .593 N/A    3    Consistently productive.
 
 
      Five players who had a BPA over .600 and qualified for the batting title in 2008 also have a career BPA over .600. These are the top offensive players in the major leagues who are currently performing at a peak level.
 
                             2008     Career
Player             Age       BPA        BPA    Comments.
————        —       —-       —-   ——–
Albert Pujols        28      .685       .646    One of the best RH hitters ever.
Alex Rodriguez       32      .623       .628    One of the best RH hitters ever.
Manny Ramirez        36      .636       .622    One of the best RH hitters ever.
Lance Berkman        32      .633       .616    Among the best switch hitters.  
Hanley Ramirez       24      .629       .609    Building solid credentials.
 
 
 
Another list of interest is one containing the names of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2008 who, for one reason or another, did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title. There are 5 players on this list in 2008 with 100 or more plate appearances.
 
                                  
Player          Age  BPA   PA    Comments
————— —  —- —    —————————
Chris Dickerson  26 .686  122    Late season call-up by Cincinnati
Nelson Cruz      27 .669  133    Also had big minor league season.
Rafael Furcal    30 .640  164    Missed most of season with bad back.
Russell Branyan  32 .638  152    Played very well before getting hurt.
Mike Napoli      26 .637  274    Exceptional power for a catcher.
 
 
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, nine players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2008. As usual most are middle infielders and catchers.  
 
Player               BPA      Comments
—————–   —-      ——————————
Jason Kendall       .396      Only repeater on this list.
Kurt Suzuki         .392      Second catcher on the list.
Miguel Tejada       .391      Set NL record for GIDP in 2008.
Edgar Renteria      .391      Can’t seem to hit in American League
Jeff Francoeur      .376      Only outfielder on this list.
Bobby Crosby        .375      Last 3 seasons at same level.
Freddy Sanchez      .370      Very disappointing season
Yuniesky Betancourt .368      Doesn’t get on base enough.
Jeff Keppinger      .361      Didn’t produce as a full-time player.
 
The following six players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2008:
 
Player (2008)        BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA
Albert Pujols        .357      .462      .653      .685
Manny Ramirez        .332      .430      .601      .636
Lance Berkman        .312      .420      .567      .633
Hanley Ramirez       .301      .400      .540      .629
Chipper Jones        .364      .470      .574      .625
Matt Holliday        .321      .409      .538      .624
Milton Bradley       .321      .436      .563      .617
 
      Five active players have these numbers for their careers, although Helton and Thomas fell far short in 2008:
 
Player (Career)      BAVG       OBA       SLG       BPA
Albert Pujols        .334      .425      .624      .646
Manny Ramirez        .314      .411      .593      .622
Lance Berkman        .302      .413      .560      .616
Todd Helton          .328      .428      .574      .615              
Frank Thomas         .301      .419      .555      .604
 
           
 
 
Bill Gilbert
11/11/08

Triple Milestones – 2008

 

Triple Milestones – 2008
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
      Offensive production in the major leagues continued to decline in 2008. The home run rate of 2.01 per game was the lowest since 1993. All offensive categories were down in 2008 and are significantly below the peak year of 2000 as illustrated in the following table:
 
Year      Runs/Game HR/Game BAVG  OBA    SLG    OPS      Triple Milestone Hitters
—- ——— ——- —-   —-   —-  —     ————————
1990     8.51     1.58   .258 .324   .386   .710              2
1991     8.62     1.61   .255 .323   .384   .707              3
1992     8.23     1.44   .256 .322   .377   .699              2
1993     9.20     1.78   .266 .332   .404   .736              5
1994     9.85     2.07   .270 .339   .424   .763              3
1995     9.69     2.02   .267 .338   .417   .755              8
1996    10.07     2.19   .270 .340   .427   .767             21
1997     9.53     2.05   .267 .337   .419   .756              7
1998     9.58     2.08   .266 .335   .420   .755             14
1999    10.17     2.28   .271 .345   .434   .779             19
2000    10.28     2.34   .271 .345   .437   .782             26
2001     9.55     2.25   .264 .332   .427   .759             21
2002     9.24     2.09   .261 .331   .417   .748             12
2003     9.46     2.14   .264 .332   .422   .754              8
2004     9.63     2.25   .266 .335   .428   .763             12
2005     9.18     2.06   .265 .330   .419   .749             10
2006     9.72     2.22   .269 .336   .432   .768             13
2007     9.59     2.04   .268 .336   .423   .759              8 
2008     9.30     2.01   .264 .333   .417   .750              7
 
 
      No players hit 50 home runs in 2008 and only 2 hit 40 (Ryan Howard 46 and Adam Dunn 40). In 2007, two players reached the 50 HR mark and 5 hit 40. In 2006, 13 players reached the 40 level. The 30 home run level was reached by 28 players in 2008 compared to 26 in 2007 and 34 in 2006. 
 
      A useful indicator for tracking offense is the number of players who hit for both power and average by achieving a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in. A record 26 players reached all three milestones in 2000, but that figure has dropped significantly in recent years. Seven players reached all three milestones in 2008, down from 8 in 2007 and 13 in 2006. Four players made it in both 2007 and 2008, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and David Wright.
 
Four American League players achieved all three milestones in 2008 while three National League Players made it. Albert Pujols became the only player to do it in his first 8 seasons. The only newcomer to the .300-30-100 club in 2008 was Josh Hamilton who became the 161st player to register a .300-30-100 season starting with Babe Ruth in 1920.
 
      Following is a listing of players who achieved triple milestones
in 2008:
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
American
Alex Rodriguez     8    .302-35-103 Not one of his best years.
Mark Teixeira      3    .308-33-121 Combined record in NL and AL.
Aubrey Huff        2    .304-32-108 Came in under the radar.     
Josh Hamilton      1    .304-32-130 Great comeback story.
 
 
 
Player           Times BAVG-HR-RBI       Comments
National
Manny Ramirez     10    .332-37-121 Back after missing in 2007.
Albert Pujols      8    .357-37-116 Eight straight years.
David Wright       2    .302-33-124 May be starting a long string.
 
      Four players achieved triple milestones in 2007 but fell short in 2008:
 
Player           Times    BAVG-HR-RBI    BAVG-HR-RBI    
                 In Past      2007           2008     Comments
David Ortiz        3     .332-35-117    .264-23- 89 Injured wrist.
Miguel Cabrera     2     .320-34-119    .292-37-127 BAVG down.
Matt Holliday      2     .340-36-137    .321-25- 88 Lost power stroke.
Carlos Lee         2     .303-32-119    .314-28-100 Missed 66 games.
 
      Three players came within one swing of the bat of reaching triple milestones.
 
Kevin Youkilis          .312-29-115      Needed another homer.
Lance Berkman           .312-29-106      Hit only 2 homers in September.
Ryan Ludwick            .299-37-113      Needed another hit.
  
      A growing list contains the names of players, active in 2008, who have had multiple .300-30-100 seasons in the past but have not done it in the last three years. Many have been limited by injuries. Some are still very productive players but not at the same level they were in their peak years. Since this list was started in 2004, not one player has come back with another .300-30-100 season.
 
                                 Last
                .300-30-100  .300-30-100 
Player            Seasons      Season       2008     Comments 
Frank Thomas         7           2000    .240- 8- 30  End of the line.
Gary Sheffield       6           2003    .225-19- 57  Injuries have taken toll.
Todd Helton          5           2003    .264- 7- 29 Bad back ruined season.
Chipper Jones        5           2001    .364-22- 75 Misses too much time.
Jason Giambi         4           2002    .247-32- 96 Still has power.
Magglio Ordonez      4           2002    .317-21-103 Still productive. 
Ken Griffey, Jr.     3           1997    .249-18- 71 Winding down HOF career.   
Carlos Delgado       3           2005    .271-38-115 Strong second half.
Moises Alou          2           2000    .347- 0- 9  Body breaking down.
Brian Giles          2           2000    .306-12- 63 Lost power stroke.
Luis Gonzalez        2           2001    .261- 8- 47 Just hanging on.
Jim Thome            2           2002    .245-34- 90 Strikes out, walks or homers.
Jeff Kent            2           2002    .280-12- 59 No longer a regular.
Aramis Ramirez       2           2004    .289-27-111 Usually comes close.
Miguel Tejada        2           2004    .283-13- 66 Decline accelerates.
 
      In his 1988 Baseball Abstract, Bill James referred to triple
milestone seasons as "Hall of Fame Seasons". This was because all of the
eligible players with 5 or more triple milestone seasons had been
elected to the Hall of Fame. This correlation has continued to hold but is likely to break down when Juan Gonzalez becomes eligible in 2011.
 
            No teams had two players with triple milestones in 2008. Twenty seven of the thirty major league teams have had at least one triple milestone hitter in the decade beginning with the year 2000. Of the three teams that haven’t, Cincinnati has the longest dry spell. Their last triple milestone hitter was George Foster in 1977. The others and the last player to do it are Kansas City (Danny Tartabull – 1991) and Milwaukee (John Jaha – 1996).    
 
 
     
      Three minor league players recorded triple milestone seasons in 2008. All three finished the season in the major leagues, two with the Texas Rangers.
 
Player            Team (Level)     Organization     Age   BAVG-HR-RBI  
 
Nelson Cruz       Oklahoma (AAA)    Texas            27   .342-37- 99
                  Texas (AL)                              .330- 7- 26            
                                                          .339-44-125
 
Chris Davis       Frisco (AA)       Texas            22   .333-13- 42
                  Oklahoma (AAA)                          .333-10- 31
                  Texas                                   .285-17- 55
                                                          .309-40-128
 
Kila Ka’aihue     NW Arkansas (AA)  Florida          24   .312-26- 78
                  Omaha (AAA)                             .316-11- 21
                  Kansas City (AL)                        .286- 1- 1
                                                          .312-38-100
 
      Four others came close:
 
Joe Koshansky     Colo. Springs (AAA)Colorado        26   .300-31-121
                  Colorado (NL)                           .211- 3- 8
                                                          .293-34-129
 
      Koshansky had minor league triple milestones but his overall batting average fell under .300 with his major league at-bats.
 
 
 
Scott McClain     Fresno (AAA) San Francisco        36    .300-29-108
                  San Francisco (NL)                      .273- 2- 7
                                                          .298-31-115
 
      McClain fell one home run short in the minor leagues. He added 2 homers in the majors but his overall batting average fell below .300.
 
 
 
Lou Montanez      Bowie (AA)        Baltimore       26      .335-26- 97
                  Baltimore (AL)                            .295- 3- 14
                                                            .327-29-111
 
      Montanez fell short by one swing of the bat.
 
 
 
Brian Dopirak     Dunedin           Toronto         24      .308-27- 88
                  New Hampshire (AA)                        .287- 2- 13
                                                            .304-29-101
 
      Dopirak, who had triple milestones in 2004 in the Cubs system, also fell short by one swing of the bat.
 
 
      A player from the Independent Leagues also achieved triple milestones in 2008 and another one came close.
 
Josh Pressley      Somerset (Atl)                   28      .354-30-101
 
      Pressley played 9 seasons in affiliated ball in 6 different organizations.
 
 
Carl Everett      Long Island (Atl)                 37      .327-29-100
 
      Everett had a 14-year major league career including a triple milestone season with Boston in 2000.
 
 
      No college players achieved triple milestones in 2008                                                
 
      Pitchers also strive for triple milestones – 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00. Esteban Loaiza was the only pitcher to do it in 2003 (21-9, 207, 2.90). Johan Santana (20-6, 265, 2.61) did it in 2004 and Chris Carpenter (21-5, 213, 2.83) was the only one to do it in 2005. None made it in 2006. In 2007, Jake Peavy led the NL in all three categories (19-6, 240, 2.54) but fell one victory short when he failed to win the playoff game for the NL wild card. In 2008, Roy Halladay of Toronto broke through with a triple milestone season (20-11, 206, 2.78)
 
10/13/08

 

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?

 

Who’s on Deck for Consideration for the Baseball Hall of Fame?
 
By Bill Gilbert
 
 
            Now that Goose Gossage has finally been elected to the Hall of Fame, it’s a good time to look ahead at the candidates that will be on the ballot in coming years.   The 2008 ballot was very unfriendly to newcomers with the 543 members of the BBWAA awarding this group of 11 players only 143 votes, 132 of them to Tim Raines. None of the other 10 received as much as 1% of the votes and, as a result, will be eliminated from further consideration. 
 
            For convenience in identifying potential candidates in coming years, I chose to use Bill James Win Shares. James has stated that, in the past, 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer but he further states that it may not be the case in the future. To be inclusive, I used a cut point of 250 points for position players and 200 points for pitchers in this study.
 
            Here are the players who meet my criteria and are eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the next five years.
 
 
2009 Ballot
 
Rickey Henderson 535 Win Shares
Mark Grace 294
David Cone 205
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Unless he succeeds in another comeback, a possibility that can’t be eliminated with Rickey, Henderson will finally be eligible and should easily be elected with the likelihood of one of the more entertaining acceptance speeches in recent years.
 
            None of the other 2009 newcomers is a strong candidate, opening the door for holdover, Jim Rice, to make it in his final year of eligibility.
 
 
2010 Ballot
 
Roberto Alomar 375 Win Shares
Barry Larkin 347
Fred McGriff 326
Edgar Martinez 305
Robin Ventura 272
Ellis Burks 260
Andres Galarraga 251
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            The 2010 Class is strong with several players likely to remain on the ballot for a number of years. While none may make it on the first ballot, the top four all have a chance with the passage of time.
 
 
2011 Ballot
 
Rafael Palmeiro 394 Win Shares
Jeff Bagwell 387
Larry Walker  307
John Olerud 301
Kevin Brown 241
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Palmeiro and Bagwell clearly have the numbers but there is a question about how voters will treat power hitters from the steroid era.
 
 
2012 Ballot
 
Bernie Williams 311 Win Shares
 
 
 
            The 2012 ballot shapes up as one even weaker than 2008 which could provide an opportunity for some holdovers to cash in.
 
 
2013 Ballot
 
            The 2013 ballot, possibly headed by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, could be the strongest and most controversial ever.
 
Barry Bonds 705 Win Shares
Roger Clemens 437
Craig Biggio 428
Mike Piazza 325
Sammy Sosa 322
Luis Gonzalez 309
Steve Finley 297
Kenny Lofton 288
Julio Franco 280
David Wells 210
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            This class is likely to shrink since it contains several free agents who hope to continue their careers. The only one who has officially retired is Biggio/
 
 
Active Players
 
            An impressive group of players are still active who have enough Win Shares to qualify for these lists when they retire.
 
Gary Sheffield 418 Win Shares
Frank Thomas 400
Greg Maddux 392
Ken Griffey, Jr. 381
Alex Rodriguez 377
Manny Ramirez 348
Jeff Kent 330
Chipper Jones 326
Jim Thome 325
Tom Glavine 289
Randy Johnson 309
Ivan Rodriguez 308
Derek Jeter 301
Jason Giambi 289
John Smoltz 286
Jim Edmonds 283
Carlos Delgado 275
Moises Alou 275
Vladimir Guerrero 272
Bobby Abreu 267
Brian Giles 266
Omar Vizquel 262
Mike Mussina 254
Curt Schilling 252
Todd Helton 252
Pedro Martinez 251
Jamie Moyer 202
Kenny Rogers 202
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Bill Gilbert
1/11/08

 

On-Base Percentage as a Measure of Offensive Performance

 

            About 20 years ago, I recall asking a group of knowledgeable baseball friends what they thought the best single statistic was for measuring offensive performance. The consensus was that it was slugging average. If I posed the same question today to respected baseball analysts, I’m certain that the answer would be on-base percentage and they could cite studies to support their position.
 
            The importance of on-base percentage in scoring runs is obvious. However, is it always the best way to evaluate a player’s performance? Consider the curious case of Morgan Ensberg. In 2005, Ensberg had a breakout year, batting .283 with 36 home runs, 101 RBIs and an on-base percentage of .388. He was voted the Most Valuable Player on Houston’s National League Championship team and finished 4th in the voting for the National League MVP.
 
            In 2006, he started out on an even stronger pace with 9 home runs and 19 RBIs in April. Among National League batters, only Albert Pujols had a better month. Ensberg finished the 2006 season with an on-base percentage of .396, an improvement over his strong showing in 2005. So he must have had a better year in 2006 than in 2005. Not so fast. Let’s take a look at the other numbers.
 
            In 2006, Ensberg batted .235 with 23 home runs and only 58 RBIs. He began the season batting 4th in the lineup behind Lance Berkman and in front of Preston Wilson and Jason Lane. His primary job was to drive in runs, and with Berkman having an outstanding season, he had plenty of opportunities.
 
            Ensberg’s performance tailed off sharply in May when he batted only .216 and was even worse in June. He was batting .174 for the month when he injured his right shoulder on June 9.  He missed a week before returning to the lineup. He was obviously hampered by the shoulder injury and finally went on the disabled list on July 10.
 
            Ensberg’s poor performance and injury prompted the Astros to trade away two prospects to Tampa Bay for third baseman Aubrey Huff. It also provided an opportunity for Mike Lamb to play third base. When Ensberg returned from the disabled list on August 1, he did not play well enough to regain his starting position and he played intermittently for the remainder of the season. In August and September, Ensberg had an on-base percentage well over .400 but had only 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in 171 plate appearances, an unacceptable rate for a batter in the middle of the order.
 
            Ensberg seemed reluctant to swing the bat when he came back, which may have been due to continued shoulder soreness. He did not hit with power and appeared to be working for walks which also resulted in a lot of strikeouts. He did not provide the type of offensive production that the offensively-challenged Astros needed in the middle of the batting order.
 
            With Ensberg’s failure as a run producer, the Astros needed to beef up the offense and may have overspent and mortgaged the future in signing free agent, Carlos Lee, to a 6-year, $100 million contract. Another reason for the need for more run production was the failure of Jason Lane to produce in 2006. Lane led all NL right fielders in home runs in 2005 with 26 while batting .267. However, in 2006, he hit just 15 home runs while batting only .201. Lane, like Ensberg, had a higher on-base percentage in 2006 than he did in 2005.
 
            What can be learned from this development is that on-base percentage, while important, especially for hitters at the top of the batting order, can be much less important for hitters in the middle of the order who are expected to be run producers.
 
Bill Gilbert     
3/6/07

Members’ Favorites

Nine Questions

(presented November 2008)

(Move the mouse over the blank space to see the answer)
1. Who are the two players that have hit home runs in the major leagues as both as teenagers and 40-year olds? Hint:  Their names rhyme. (Submitted by Bill Gilbert)

Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub
2. Name the only pitcher to homer as a pinch hitter in his first major league at bat. (Submitted by Jan Larson) Gene Stechschulte, St. Louis, 4/17/2001. He hit a home run on the first pitch and it was the only home run of his major league career.
3. How does a team get 3 triples, a double, 2 singles, and 2 steals in one inning and NOT score? (Submitted by Michael Bass)

1 – Triple, runner thrown out at home (1 out)

2 – Triple, runner picked off third (2 outs)

3 – Double

4 – Infield single, runner holds

5 – Double steal, runners to second and third.

6 – Infield single, runners hold

7 – Ball hit out of the park, runners congregate at home, batter-runner touches home before any of them, called out.  Scored a triple (3 outs).

0 runs, 6 hits, 0 errors, 3 left on base
4. Who is the only pitcher to lose 20 games for a pennant-winning team? (Submitted by Norman Macht) George Mullin 1907 Detroit Tigers
5. Who are the seven players who have 150 or more RBIs in a season since 1995? One of them has done it twice. (Submitted by Jeff Petry)

(a) Andres Galarraga (150 in 1996)

(b)  Albert Belle (152 in 1998)

(c)  Juan Gonzalez (157 in 1998)

(d) Sammy Sosa (158 in 1998)

(e) Manny Ramirez (165 in 1999)

(f) Sammy Sosa (160 in 2001)

(g) Miguel Tejada (150 in 2004) 

(h) Alex Rodriguez (156 in 2007)
6.

Since 1947, only one player has hit more than 50 home runs and struck out fewer than 50 times in one season. Name the player. (Submitted by Chuck Kaufman)

 Johnny Mize, 51 home runs and 42 strikeouts in 1947.
7. Name the Cubs’ pitcher who was on the mound when Chicago turned all three of its triple plays during the 1965 season. (Submitted by Dan Walsh) Bill Faul
8.

Which three players hold the record for the most consecutive years as teammates? (Submitted by Tom Wancho)

George Brett, Hal McRae, Frank White, Kansas City Royals (1973-1987)
9.

World Series games were played in this ballpark for three years in a row, but
the home team was in only two of those World Series. 

Name the ballpark

Name the years played

Name the teams in each World Series

(Submitted by Norman Macht)

Comiskey Park:

1917 White Sox-Giants

1918 Cubs-Red Sox

1919 White Sox-Reds

 

 

Best Not in the Hall of Fame

Here are the results of the recent poll where SABR/Hornsby Chapter members were asked to vote on the best players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  The guidelines were that the player must be eligible for Veteran’s Committee consideration and have played in a major league (NL,AL, FL) in the modern era.

Of the eight ballots submitted, the following registered votes:

Five votes each: Ron Santo (3B), Dick Allen (OF, 1B, DH), Bobby Grich (2B)

Four votes:  Jim Kaat  (P)

Three votes each:  Bill Dahlen (SS),  Bert Blyleven (P) (note, Blyleven still has BBWAA eligibility), Minnie Minoso (OF)

Received two votes each:

1B – Gil Hodges; P – Smokey Joe Wood, Luis Tiant, Tommy John; OF – Tony Oliva, "Indian" Bob Johnson, Sherry Magee, Jimmy Wynn

Received one vote each:

C – Ted Simmons, Bob O’Farrell, Bill Freehan, Joe Torre, Gene Tenance; 1B – Stuffy McInnis, Don Mattingly, Norm Cash; SS – Dick Bartell, Davey Concepcion, Vern Stephens; 3B – Darrell Evans; OF – Bibb Falk, Vada Pinson, Reggie Smith, Dale Murphy; SP – Lefty O-Doul, Sam Leever, Lon Warneke, Mike Garcia, Paul Derringer, Jerry Koosman; RP – Dan Quisenberry